The Canadian Technician

December 2012

The Canadian Technician

An Update to the Bull Market post of 20121212

by Greg Schnell

Here is the $SPX. A few weeks I wrote a note about how the globe was turning bullish, and we should watch closely. If the world does break out, its time to get long.  That blog can be found here. Bullish. I would encourage you to read the long blog. So lets check on the update to see where we stand. This current market is showing a new hand. Let's review some of the indicators. The RSI is struggling to get above 60, but nothing real sinister here. Although the price got to within 26 points of the high, the RSI was quite a bit lower. How about the MACD? Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Canadian Energy Sector Starts To Turn Up

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian Energy industry has been hard hit. We are close to finding a bullish breakout. This would be important to watch for. This chart would be a good indicator of a conversion to a bullish trend. The Trendline on $WTIC has broken and the price started to move to the upside this week. We can see the energy stocks started to turn up as well. It would be great if the Bullish Percent Index can rise above the 10 week MA. XEG.TO is a sector ETF for the Canadian Energy sector. Best wishes for the holidays. Good trading,   Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Magna looks Magnificent! Happy Holidays

by Greg Schnell

Magna makes car parts for the OEM's. It trades in the USA as MGA. It has been a difficult 2 years for Magna. But the bright lights are hitting the stock. The price action is breaking out of a big pennant. The measuring stick in black points to significant upside. Magna recently popped out the top side of the pennant. We can expect a little horizontal resistance at the spring highs of $48.99. The Black Measuring stick target is to break out to new all time highs. I'll  paraphrase Tom McClellan here. When you are looking at a base don't try to find the top. There is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian and US Industrial Sectors Break Out to Multi Year Highs

by Greg Schnell

There is an old saying that when you are making new highs you are not in a down market. Sometimes the bad news can really sound overwhelming. The stock market can be a leading indicator and may be starting to price in a pick up in the second half of 2013. Well the slogan above sounds obvious but our Canadian Energy Sector has been in a funk so long that the $TSX has been held down. Gold has not helped either. However, there are sectors performing well. The Industrials are an early cycle sector along with the Transports. When they get going, its very bullish. Well, the Canadian Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$DAX makes 5 year highs

by Greg Schnell

The German $DAX has broken out to new 5 year highs. After meeting resistance at the 2011 top, it has now cleared that hurdle and looks to be moving higher with the rest of the globe. You can see on the chart how the 7500 level was providing some resistance. We have now stepped above that and look to be marching higher. Regarding my $IRX chart last week. I thought long and hard about that one. I believe it is just investors parking cash in a short term t-bill until the fiscal cliff drama is over. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

ETFs vs Stocks - Which Is Right for You?

by Greg Schnell

I received this question today from a regular reader. It's a great question! Greg, I read your articles regularly - Arthur's and John's articles as well. Thanks for the great charts and interpretation of them. It has really helped me over the last few years. I am still looking for the magic bullet trading style though. I've been trading ETF's for years, but wondering about stocks? Is one better? - C.M., Toronto First of all, let's discuss the question a little bit before answering it The benefit of trading ETFs is that they Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Three Weddings and a Funeral

by Greg Schnell

I like this chart when it is going up. Today scares me a bit. This is my wall of worry chart. As you can tell, it is my comment or mood board. Let's call it overannotated. I try not to delete stuff even if I'm wrong. Today thats a good thing.  One of my comments when this chart broke down before was full of caution and the blip ended up being for a couple of weeks. Lets hope this is the same. But hope is nota, repeat nota, trading strategy.  Keep your eyes on the bond/ T-Bill  market. This looks distressing. I recognize you can't read it at this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is The $TRAN Leaving The Station? All Aboard!!

by Greg Schnell

Here is the chart of the transports. The Three major subsectors are $DJUSRR, $DJUSTK, $DJUSAR. We have been stymied waiting for these transports to break out. The Transports topped shortly after the rest of the world stock markets topped out. Most  global stock markets made their tops in March of 2011. The Transports made it up for two more highs in May 2011 with the US market top and the $TRAN made one last attempt in July as seen below. So the transports have followed the world order lower, but with no downward enthusiasm in the last year. Really a sideways trading range, with a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

2012 12 12 ... Announcing The Global Bull Market !

by Greg Schnell

Now that I have your attention, let me back it up with facts. It doesn't do us any good to look in the mirror and say that we have been in a big bull market since December 2012 when we have missed the move. So lets go risk on, lay out some history, some levels, why now and what would change my mind! I wrote this blog originally on November 23rd, and have edited it 4 times. I could wait another couple of weeks and the Russian market would probably join in. Anyway, I decided the 2012-12-12 date was a great day to publish it as the Canadian market moved into the bullish area today Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Fabulous Confirmation Chart For The $SPX

by Greg Schnell

The chart below is not of the $SPX. It is not Gold or Crude Oil, or a Bank ETF. What is it? Look at all the confirmation points. Let's go through them. First, all the major highs were within days of the $SPX tops. This chart usually made final thrust moves and rapidly failed even though the $SPX tops were not as sensational. So that is a nice clue to look for timing an intermediate top perhaps. Look at the major bottoms. All four of the lows were within a day of the $SPX lows. Another nice Read More 

The Canadian Technician

If Metals are Improving...What Happened to FCX?

by Greg Schnell

My blog earlier this morning generated some discussion, so I thought I would top it up. What about that move in FCX? I always like to watch FCX from a copper standpoint. FCX gets more blurred as a copper monitor as $GOLD goes higher. However, $COPPER is the real deal. It is going higher. The deal announced yesterday to fix a problem in the offshore drilling at Mcmoran (MMR)  is interesting. Buying Plains to get more technology is ok, but I see a large supply of oil, and some structural shift to alternatives or Natgas. US oil consumption is still well off its highs of 2007, but Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Off to India? - Change Course - Off to Shanghai $SSEC --

by Greg Schnell

Finally, The $SSEC market catches a break. Hopefully it can become a full blown breakout. Love that. My blogs over the last few months have been subtly pointing to Shanghai, looking for a turn which should help spur commodities globally. Shanghai popped up today, closed near it high on a big 2.8% price move.  Notice the divergence in September did not last. I am looking for the current divergence to work this time! Copper has broken out, mining stocks are breaking out and as I said before back on November 23, all the major markets of the world are starting to line up as Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Materials Starting to Show Bullish Trends.

by Greg Schnell

Some interesting charts showing up in the materials sector. Here is one I like. This one has so many positive technical Queues I like. Here is a link to the Gallery view. Is there anything not to like?  Gallery The materials are performing stronger. Some have nice h/s bottom patterns on the weekly charts that are breaking out. Stops are always important when testing necklines or previous highs. How did I find this? It was on the top performing list on the $TSX today on the homepage. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More