The Canadian Technician

Commodity Countries Are Telling Us A Significant Story

by Greg Schnell

I've been nagging about how weak the commodities have been for a while. Some serious price levels are on the charts. It's timely to review the big picture. My personal list of the  major commodity countries are Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia. I want to focus in on these charts. Australia is a bright spot. Here is the chart. It is very normal to watch the test of the 10 WMA. (DMA= Daily, WMA=weekly,MMA = Monthly). So far it looks very successful, but its very early (within a week). When the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

WTIC -What Do I See?

by Greg Schnell

As we sit here on the Equinox weekend for 2013, its time to look at the behaviour of black gold. We have multiple ways to look at crude. We can do the futures curve. We can do the spot price. We can do $BRENT. We  can do $GASO. What we can not do is ignore the data. Crude has displayed seasonal weakness starting around April 1 for the last 3 years. In 2013, its starting early. Crude oil started to move lower in early February. Recently in March, $WTIC pushed higher while $BRENT has continued to move lower. Looking up at the chart above, I have placed a blue line at the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Three Out Of Four Is Bad ?

by Greg Schnell

The other day I posted a red/green chart of the stock indexes above the 20 Month Moving Average. I noted that 3 of the 4 BRIC countries had fallen below the 20 Month MA level. Shanghai (China), Russia and Brazil.  Well Shanghai got a big bounce yesterday which is great news so it is back above the 20 MMA.. What I noticed cruising through the charts after the close Wednesday, was this ominous pattern. The $BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange in India) has formed a perfect H/S top. The momentum is declining as I have labelled the H/S top on the price and MACD. Notice the low level of the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Why $GOLD and the Miners are so interesting - right here

by Greg Schnell

Lets look at 3 charts: Here is Gold. We will use GLD as I can get 60 minute data to compare to the GDX  60 minute chart below. Notice how it has broken above 11 day highs. Back in January February it was not able to break out above the $163.04. GLD has broken through the first level of resistance and a break above the $156.80 level would indicate a much more important break.    Here is GDX which is an ETF that tracks a group of Gold Miners. Look at the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Twisted Pairs - $COPPER And $SPTEN

by Greg Schnell

Today I want to review two charts. First is Copper. The chart below is a MONTHLY chart. This support area is critical. The huge gap down on a daily chart puts $COPPER on notice as breaking a huge 4 year Head/Shoulders Pattern. Maybe today was a fakeout and this is the place where the markets can rally from. It really is important to watch.  You can just see the major trendline that was in place for three years before 2008 when the commodities broke down. Usually commodities like oil are the last Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is Too Many New Highs A Good Thing?

by Greg Schnell

Here is the chart of the Nasdaq and NYSE New 52 Week Highs. Since January 1, we have had a surge of new highs. I have marked up the charts with a couple of pieces of information. 1) The Horizontal lines at 400 and 250 are interesting levels on a long term basis. 2) We have been at or above these levels for 11 weeks. 3) The number of new highs as the market goes higher has been declining from the 900 level to the 600 level recently on the NYSE. Now lets look at a long term picture. You can see why I Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Looking At The Dashboard - Canadian Banks

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX is really an interesting study these days. The defensive sector charts are outperforming and the commodity sector charts look terrible. I focus on the commodities but here is the bank sector. NICE! All of the banks have broken out to 5 year highs. Due to the size of the banks and the dominance in the Canadian stock market, these major players have done a great job of holding the $TSX up while the commodity companies have been weak. The high note: They are all breaking out to 5 year highs in 2013.  Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX @Tim Horton's, $SPX @ Red Bull

by Greg Schnell

One of these things is not like the other. Looks like the Canadian market has been sitting in Tim Horton's for a coffee break, but the US market has been drinking Red Bull for the morning shot. The charts below all have different number of dates. All the charts are 60 minute charts, but the number of days change. While the $SPX has rallied nicely, the $TSX has been stuck in a sideways pattern. The $TSX is flat after 7 weeks while the $SPX has piled on 3.7%. I think it is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Bullish Percent Indexes - Understanding The Clues

by Greg Schnell

One of the more interesting indexes that Stockcharts creates is the Bullish Percent Index. For more information from the Chart School click on this Bullish Percent Link. Whenever the Bullish Percent Index is very low, technicians can use this tool to look for clues on when to enter the trade. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent is today's example. Roughly a month ago, I talked about the Gold Miners BP Index. It was at an interesting level. Well now, this index is near levels seen on the 2008 low!!! So, nothing says anything is changing yet. But that is the point. As a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Iceberg Dead Ahead - Turning The Titanic $USD

by Greg Schnell

Over and over, the lesson in the markets is "Don't Fight The Major Trend".Over and over, technicians keep watch for a change in the major trend.The reason that stays true, is by the time the major trend is so obvious, the technicians are looking for the next one.Under our feet, there has been a trend underway for three months but it feels like its just getting started.Here are the major components of the dollar index. ( Plus the Aussie Dollar). Click here for the live chart. DOLLAR INDEX Starting at the top, we can see the Japanese Yen has pulled back (ok, fell off Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Aussie Dollar - Another Waterfall Or Just Goin' Walkabout?

by Greg Schnell

Here is the Aussie Dollar Chart. Does it remind you of the Yen chart and the Canadian Dollar Chart at inflection points just a few months earlier? See my Wiley E. Coyote Blog if you missed them.  The Australian Dollar just lost both the 40 WMA and the 10 WMA. Can this support line hold it? We don't want this chart to fall. I am concerned that all the currencies are starting to fall like dominoes. Does this chart have the strength to hold? Maybe this blue line will be support and we bounce from here. The red line is definitely horizontal support. Just a little Read More