The Canadian Technician

Percent Of Stocks Above The 50 DMA

by Greg Schnell

This is one of my favorite charts to help diagnose the market. Currently it is in a spot where we should be looking for going long. But it can stay this way for weeks. Here is the chart. So lets start at the top. The RSI for the $TSX is oversold. Most of us would look for a bounce here. The next one is a very interesting indicator I have written about before. The $TSXA50R is the % of $TSX stocks above the 50 day MA in Gold. In Black in the background is the % of stocks above the 200 DMA. The dark Gold area is where the % of stocks above the 200 DMA is behind the % of stocks Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Utilities Starting To Outperform?

by Greg Schnell

I was breezing through the charts last night and I noticed this subtle change on the Utilities. We'll be watching to see if it amounts to anything. There is positive deviation on the RSI and MACD but most importantly, the Red area above is starting to make higher highs. It's early, but worth noting! Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Loonie Loses Long Term Luster

by Greg Schnell

The currencies continue to tell the story. This is a meaningful breakdown now. While there is horizontal support at 95 and 93, I am really concerned that the Canadian Loonie will not be able to find support based on what happened to Australia's dollar and other $USD index currencies. Here is the currency chart I have been posting over the last few months.      The currencies are breaking down meaningfully. The Yen collapsed and it is clearly Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The $TSX Tests The Head Shoulders Neck Line... Again...

by Greg Schnell

If you have been following the Gold trade we talked about on the blog, We'll see if Gold finds its bottom today. Looks like a flush. Significant downward momentum. Not sure if it can bottom today after such a steep drop. But lets focus on the wider picture. The $TSX has been marking a long term topping pattern. I have been blogging about the currencies and the commodity country indexes. We are on  the precipice again. So we can see this trendline under pressure. Gold, Copper, Silver, and majore currencies are all breaking down. We'll see if Canada can withhold the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Golden Day - Did You Know?

by Greg Schnell

Heads UpGolden Day is almost here. I have marked the charts up with red arrows since the 2011 top. You will notice that whatever brief trend gold is in, it seems to pivot on or near the 20th calendar day of the month. The red arrows are on the 20th or before if it falls on a weekend. Here is the 2011 to 2012 version. Something meaningful seems to happen almost every month. A very short term trend change from up to down or flat. A very short term trend change from sideways to down or up. A very short term trend change from down to up or sideways. If you click on Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$COPPER Takes An Interesting Ride

by Greg Schnell

Recently Copper and the $USD have started to correlate with each other. While this can and does happen occasionally, it is important to be aware of trend changes. When the $USD went on the big surge from Feb 1 to April 1, Copper did as most would expect. The price of Copper fell.  After April 1, Copper kept falling, whereas the $USD reversed an uptrend and fell for the month of April making them move with each other. Then on May 1, both reversed higher but continued tracking each other. Then, both made highs mid May together and while the USD has made lower lowers compared to May Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Agrium Kisses A Neckline. Summer Love or Summer Storm?

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX is giving us some very interesting charts to view. AGU.TO  is resting onI mean testing support. We can see a drawn out Head and Shoulders top for Agrium. The RSI needs to hold here. The 40 WMA has turned flat at best. The MACD is still spread bearish and moving lower. The full sto's just crossed down as denoted by the red circle. Here is a cycle view.   I opened the chart up to a very large size. dragged the cycle tool out to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Bombardier Follows Boeing Higher

by Greg Schnell

The business of Aviation is looking up. With airlines tightening capacity and still forecasting huge growth, the new lines of jets are pushing optimism higher. Bombardier has launched some great new planes and they seem to be garnering sales.  Bombardier has built  a beautiful base and recently started to accelerate higher. This stock looks like one to keep an eye on as the market consolidates here. The RSI has moved into bull territory, the MACd has acccelerated above zero, and the full sto's have finally gotten above 80. This is what a good base looks like Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What's That Ticker I See Top Right, eh?

by Greg Schnell

Just clicking on the homepage and noticed another tweak for the $TSX market watchers. This is just a handy way to get a quick snapshot of todays action. Click on the $TSX tab on the top or click on the line and up pops a chart of the $TSX. That's a handy one!   Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT.     Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Was The Porridge Just Right?

by Greg Schnell

On Friday, Art Cashin was commenting  about the jobs report and said it was not too hot and not too cold. Just Right!!! The world loves Art Cashin and I do too. The problem as I see it is there are still bears in your kitchen eating your porridge. Photo Credit - Taken from Mike's iPhone on highway 93. While the sunshine continues to shine on the US index,  but the fog is rolling in on other global markets. All four commodity countries that I track are below the 200 DMA. That would be Australia, Russia, Canada and Brazil. The Hang Seng and the  Kospi Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some Ideas around Gold (Part 5)

by Greg Schnell

So, Gold tumbled hard. Even before the news. Well, it is part of trading Gold, living with sharp moves either way. I wanted to present a new feature that showed up at Stockcharts University 102 class on Saturday in Seattle.  When you are in Summary view for a Chartlist, you can now select the lookback period rather than being intraday or end of day. You have more Options. Below is the 3 month view. What is nice, is now you can select one month and get a quick look at what stocks in a particular Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some Ideas Around Gold (Part 4)

by Greg Schnell

Point and figure charts are really interesting charts. When they oscillate between a channel or a given range, no new signal is created. In order for a PnF chart to create a buy signal, it has to mke a higher high. It will not kick to a sell signal until it makes a lower low. Bullish Percent charts are a summary of individual Point and Figure charts. In the case of the Bullsih Percent chart for the Gold Miners Index, Stockcharts use 30 companies to make up the index. When none of them are on a buy signal, the Bullish Percent is 0. Currently only 3 are on a buy signal which is 6.9% Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Oil Show Comes To Cowtown - Whats Hot

by Greg Schnell

Glancing through the TSX big mover up on the homepage today and noticed this strange coincidence. Calfrac (CFW.TO) is breaking through 3 month resistance on a huge down day in the market. AirBoss (BOS.TO) is breaking through 5 month resistance. Their website suggests the margins in their products for the Oil and Gas sector are double their base business margins. Pason (PSI.TO) is breaking through 6 month resistance. All three of these made big gains on a major down day in the markets. What's up? Well, next week the Oil and Gas Show is in Calgary which is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some Ideas Around Gold (Part 3)

by Greg Schnell

Trading bottoms in volatile commodities is fraught with risk. Controlling that risk is key to successfully finding bottoms the mature into new uptrends. This is Part 3 of a series of blogs on Gold and related trades. I want to cover the analysis of the Gold bottom in 2008 and then carry that knowledge forward to 2013. Here is a chart comparing the three items back in 2008. The gold ETF, the gold miners ETF and the ratio. On this chart, you will notice that the GDX:GLD ratio made a higher high first Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some Ideas Around Gold (Part 2)

by Greg Schnell

First of all, trying to trade bottoms in volatile commodities is filled with risk. Managing this risk is important. I wrote the Part 1 blog yesterday that can be found in the Canadian Technician section under the blogs tab. With that, we'll look at the Gold ETF with huge daily volume, the GLD. I try to put links to the charts so you should be able to click on them and expand the size. Let's look at the big picture. The 2008 high to low was a 30% pullback to $70.00.   From the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some Ideas Around Gold - Part 1

by Greg Schnell

Let me make one thing clear. Trading bottoms in volatile commodities is risky. I will focus a few blogs this week on Gold and related trades. When I am speaking of levels on the chart, they are ranges so when I indicate 27, it is close to there. It might be 27.5 or 26.5 but a range of support around 27. Its just a visual off this long term chart. First of all, let's look at the gold miners ETF, GDX.  I have a lot of different things on this chart to highlight.   Notice Read More