The Canadian Technician

September 2013

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Sector Review

by Greg Schnell

The performance charting tool called the perf chart compares the performance in percentage terms of different ticker symbols. Canada's underperformance seems to be improving as we have outperformed the $SPX over the last three months. The Money market, US bonds, and Canadian bonds have all had negative returns. The broad commodities have tracked slgithly worse the the $SPX or $TSX but a welcome respite from the previous underperformance. Secondly,  In terms of sector performance, we Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An InDepth Review Of The 30 Year $USB Chart Posted Yesterday

by Greg Schnell

In response to my short blog about the 30 year Bond, I received lots of questions and comments. This is a long detailed blog about the $USB complete with closeups on momentum lows. Here is the chart I showed yesterday. The findings from the detailed review are pretty interesting.   While this may be the momentum low with another final low in price to follow, it may also be that the final low is in. What clues can we use?  In the article yesterday , I was pointing out how extreme Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The 30 Year Bond "Momentum" Is At Record Levels

by Greg Schnell

Here is a chart of the $USB going back to 1980. By any indicator it is either at record lows or similar extreme lows in terms of momentum. This would be one reason for playing reversion to the mean. For those interested, it might be a great trade.  Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Using CandleGlance For Money Flow. 6 Sectors Are Negative.

by Greg Schnell

After coming back from NYC, it reminded me to review some of the subtle data in the sectors. Here is the SPY.  So, what is the sector breakdown? That gets more interesting to see what is leading. Lets go through the sectors.   I wanted to show two things here. First, how to do it longhand. Second, the value of gallery view. If you wanted to look at CMF for the sectors, this is how you could do it. Take a snapshot of each one, and compile them manually into a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Former Commodities Market Darling Wakes Up

by Greg Schnell

The stock market is littered with stocks that went to the moon and back. Canadians will remember JDSU and Nortel. Americans will remember Yahoo and Microsoft. The stock  below was a darling into the 2006 runup. It has since had a small pullback of 99%.   ;-(    So why should we be interested now? The company name is DryShips. Here is the Yahoo Finance corporate Profile. DryShips Inc. owns drybulk carriers and tankers that operate worldwide. The company, through its majority owned subsidiary, Ocean Rig, owns and operates 10 offshore ultra deepwater drilling units Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The World Is Breaking Out Higher. Period.

by Greg Schnell

OK. The number of locations breaking out to new highs is consistent with a new bull market. Let's roll through them. Without charting the $SPX, $INDU, $COMPQ we know they are at new highs. Look at the $TSX. Here we have the $TSX at new highs above the 8 months shown as well as the last 2 years. Notice how the $TSX touched the 70 in July on the RSI. That is a bull market reading. The current breakout above May highs is bullish! That is confirming the US breakout of a couple months ago. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Fed Meeting - Friend or Foe

by Greg Schnell

I keep a chart looking at what happened after the Fed meeting dates.  Here is the last year. You can see if has provided lift at almost every meeting.  The September meeting is on the far left edge. It was down from there into the November low.  Since the June setback, the $SPX has made higher highs and higher lows. You can see that we haven't made much progress since mid May.  For a longer view of the Fed Meeting chart, you can click on this link. Fed Meetings  I coded the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Materials, Metals and Miners Are Popping. Check Out The Differences

by Greg Schnell

Here is the XLB. Here is the Canadian Materials Index.   Can you believe the difference in the two indexes? One is bottom left to top right - a.k.a. Bullish. One is top left to bottom right - a.k.a. bearish. So nothing looks particularly bullish on the Canadian index as we are setting four week lows.  But let's look at the global metals and mining index. This is the index components list for the Capped Materials index Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Drillers Are Liking High Oil Prices

by Greg Schnell

This is a pretty simple story. Higher oil prices mean more drilling. Only one is missing the love of the market towards these drillers. All of them are currently trying to bounce off the 10 week line. Usually a good entry in an uptrend where stops can be placed close by. As Crude retests the highs of Feb 2012, a break above would probably launch the industry group higher.  Looks like most of them have been sideways for a month. They can do a lot of drilling over winter if budgets for new wells start to improve. But the first retest of the 10 week line is Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Banks Hammer The Buy, Buy Buttons While Going To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

The vast majority of Canadian banks made new highs this week. Click here for a live chart. It is not uncommon for volume to spike on earnings weeks. But the real story was Volume, Volume, Volume relative to history. This week, one bank stock had 3 year volume highs, and many had 'top 2,3 or 5' volume weeks over a 2 year look back.  BNS had a good week. It did not test all time highs but it had a large volume candle on a flat week. Third largest volume week since 2011 Read More