The Canadian Technician

December 2013

The Canadian Technician

Upcoming Technical Analysis Events in the Vancouver/ Victoria Area

by Greg Schnell

StockCharts.com January Training Courses:  Kick off the new year with a new outlook on the markets.  StockCharts.com SCU 101 January 17th, 2014 all day session StockCharts.com SCU 102 January 18th, 2014 all day session  Stockcharts.com will be hosting 2 training courses in Vancouver on January 17 and 18th  for those interested in learning how to use the technical charting website of stockcharts.com. This includes a 3 month subscription to the site with real time data of the Canadian and US markets. The training is widely viewed as superb and enrollment is filling Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Pops Champagne To Close Out The Year

by Greg Schnell

Yahoo! What a 4th quarter touchdown! Let's start with the 25 year view. From the sideways markets of the late 80's, the first three years of the 90's. The 1980's (not shown) had the $TSX stall at resistance at the 3000 level in 1980,1981. It spent the next 12 years moving above it and pulling back to the 3000 level. It finally got lift off in early 1993 that broke a multi year trend line. The next 5 years had the $TSX move from 3500 at the breakout in 1993, to 7835 in the spring of 1998. Then a tough year ensued which saw the $TSX lose 32% before yearend. The next Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Sector review

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX had a great quarter. After finally breaking above resistance in October, the market has lifted most boats. Unfortunately for precious metal investors, they took another mixed martial arts beating. Most have tapped out after having the shiny metal move against them. Here is the sector performance for the last 3 months. It feels so good till we compare it with the large cap $SPX.  Only two Canadian sectors outperformed the $SPX. The main problem with this is that the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Best Wishes For The Holiday Season

by Greg Schnell

Year end brings many things. A great time to enjoy family and friends. A great time to enjoy a good book. A great time to set goals for the year ahead.  I wanted to take this opportunity to say thank you for reading the blog, for following the market through the charts and for those of you who sent suggestions back to me. The blog is a communication channel and communication is best with quick feedback.  After 10 very tough turbulent quarters, the $TSX was finally able to break out above a 24 month ceiling in the 4th quarter. This price action makes it easier to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Living The Lumber Lifestyle - Higher

by Greg Schnell

Flipping through the dashboards this weekend and rolled through some seriously nice chart patterns in Lumber related stocks. Here is one of the dashboards. Every stock is above the 10 week MA and most of them are breaking out higher above consolidation zones. Here is a second dashboard.    These are all nice charts. Lots of them look ready to break through horizontal consolidations. Looking at the $LUMBER futures might give us a clue. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

My My MYI - Are Bond Prices About to Rise?

by Greg Schnell

This chart has got it all. Just when you think the bond market is dead, this chart shows up. What are we looking at? This fund invests in Municipal Bonds for yield. The chart has been a great precursor for a lot of the bond action.  We'll step through what I see in the chart. First of all, lets review the basic rhythm of the chart. After a hard drop in late 2010, the fund rose from early January 2011 to Dec 2012, a two year run. In January 2013 it failed to make a new high and by March it had dropped below the 40 week moving average. After retesting the 40 WMA from below Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Fed Changes Direction - What Else Did?

by Greg Schnell

When the Fed speaks, the market listens. Today, the Federal Reserve announced changes to its bond buying program. Immediately after, the stock market went on a soaring ride. But what else moved? How can we find out quickly? Here is a chart of some of the things we expected to move, other than the indexes. This is a three day 5 minute chart. The snapshot is just before 3 PM EST. Notice the two on the bottom. How can you find these quickly as they happen? One method I use is to watch the most Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Silver, Gold And QE

by Greg Schnell

The stock market has been on quite a run. Gold and Silver have been falling in tandem with the precious metals sectors unloved throughout the QE cycles. All eyes are on the Fed for the concept of tapering. What will be the result in the metals market? Apparently QE had a negative effect on the $GOLD and $SILVER charts. Ok. Maybe that is a little understated. Both $GOLD and $SILVER marked their highs in 2011 with the launch of QE 2 otherwise known as Operation Twist. Then the US Fed, the Eurozone, China and Japan all introduced special programs around September 2012. What was particularly Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Oil Stocks - Reviewing The Dashboard

by Greg Schnell

Last week, I wrote about the surge in $WTIC. On the long term charts, it looks pretty bullish. On the short term charts, it looked like a short squeeze. So a week after the big move has settled in, where are we at? First of all, let's look at some of Canada's larger Caps. So while crude is back up to the 10 WMA, 2 oil stocks are above the 10 WMA, 2 are below the 10 WMA and CPG is at the 10 WMA. The overall sector has moved down below the 10 WMA as seen in the bottom panel. Pretty mixed. We have to exercise caution here. The $TSX went on a sell signal as described Read More 

The Canadian Technician

SCTR - Reviewing The Results - Chapter 10

by Greg Schnell

The scan engine has created some terrific lists for us to review. Now we need to narrow our focus on which stocks we would like to buy. For everyone, there is a different right stock. Some like to buy pullbacks, some like stock volatility to flatten out (narrowing Bollinger Bands), some like to buy breakouts. Some like to trade with options, some like to buy stocks for the dividends. There is no right method. It is what works for you. The SCTR is going to give you a list of strong stocks. You will need to visually scan to see what works for you. In the last chapter, I Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$NYAD Has Slowed It's Ascent Of The Mountain

by Greg Schnell

In trying to decipher what the market is trying to tell us technically, we all have a variety of indicators. The $NYAD is an interesting one. As long as the $NYAD seems to have rising lows the uptrend seems intact. When I look at $NYAD back in 2000, it actually started to make lower lows and highs in 1998. We know the market topped in 2000, so it would have been a very frustrating wait for the final top. Here is the $NYAD (Cumulative) view back in 2007. As you can see, the trend was your friend. When the $NYAD indicator went horizontal for 4 months, it marked a softening in Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Sends Out Sell Signals

by Greg Schnell

We spend a lot of time looking at price action trying to figure out if its short term or long term. Sometimes it is as simple as just using the things that seem to work most of the time with stops in place when they don't. One of my favourite charts gave a sell signal on the $TSX this week. So this week, the $TSX put out a sell signal on this chart. What does that mean? Well, let's walk through the indicators starting at the top. First of all is the SPURS. The relative strength compared to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Global Issues For Commodities - Umbrella Tops and Parabolic Spikes

by Greg Schnell

Heads up on this one. You might need a coffee. I continue to watch the global response to the Fed efforts to create inflation. Unfortunately, it isn't working. Commodities keep getted pushed down.  I wrote a blog recently about the Commodity Currencies breaking down. Gold and Copper continue to struggle to find a bottom. That is with the $USD still holding around $0.81 which is near the lows of the past year. It would appear a breakout of the $USD to the upside will be extremely bearish for commodities. If the commodities can't get support with the dollar in a trading range, stay Read More