The Canadian Technician

February 2014

The Canadian Technician

Does WhatsApp and Tesla Remind Anyone Else of Ballard Power?

by Greg Schnell

After this month closes out, we'll be talking about when Facebook bought a "What's up Doc?" - WhatsApp for $19B. Some thought it foolish, and I felt out of the loop because I have never heard of the WhatsApp app. So a $19B handle seemed pretty large.   Well since then, Facebook has surged higher. The investors love Facebooks' concept of the ability to connect across the various communication channels. So if that wasn't enough Hollywood, then the Power Rangers showed up for work in the form of a Tesla announcement! Well, here is TSLA. TSLA went from 196 to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Continues Its Run and $GOLD Bulls Get Poked

by Greg Schnell

  Its been a few months since October when the $TSX was able to break out to new highs. Since then, it has not been much of a look back. Because of the strength of the gold miners, even the pull back in the early February lows was much shallower on the $TSX than on the $SPX. This chart has enough information on it to keep a chartist blogging for a novel. I'll work in in pieces, so head down to the next text section and use the chart below the text. Lets start at the top on the chart just below. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Teck Resources Needs Some Buyers Resources

by Greg Schnell

Wow, has this been a difficult trade. It has worn out almost every bull and every bear on the street. Canada's major miner just seems to roll over at resistance every time. Recently, it looked like Teck was finally going to hold above the 200 DMA (40 WMA). Here is the current chart. Starting at the top, The RSI is trapped in bear market mode. Currently falling back below 50. The SPURS are falling again. The SCTR ranks the stock in the bottom quartile one more time. We can have hope that it must be near the lows, but it can stay as a poor performer for a while. On the Price Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS Looks To Test $6 Today

by Greg Schnell

As the winter weather sits in snow banks across Eastern North America, $NATGAS has been on a roll. I expected the top to be in for $NATGAS based on the change in the size of the daily moves and a seasonal top in late January early Feb for $NATGAS. Yesterday, $NATGAS had its highest close in a few years, and this morning in futures trading is sits in the $5.90 range. Short term, I think that yadda, yadda, yadda. I was expecting $NATGAS to top out and roll over. Long term, outside recent memory the chart has some very interesting history. I have placed 3 lines on the chart Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Jumps Above 14000!

by Greg Schnell

With a push from the gold stocks, the $TSX pushed above the previous highs of 14000! You can see in the following chart the lifting has been shared across most sectors with a noticeable pause on the financials and industrials.   Interesting though, in the last week, the $SPX outperformed almost every Canadian sector again! Stay tuned, the roller coaster continues. I thought it was interesting that both Arthur and I focused on Utilities in our Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Round Number Resistance Everywhere - Should You Care?

by Greg Schnell

Just looking at the market action into the close, one thing jumped out across the charts. Lots of indexes or reference charts were stuck at round number resistance today.  What I mean is near price levels ending in zero zero. '00'.  Here is the $TSX.  We can see that the mid month high for the $TSX was 14000. Here we sit a month later and now it seems like the 13900 level is resistance after testing higher both yesterday and today.  I have been impressed with the $TSX resiliency on the January pullback.  The $TSX found support at the 50 DMA. Recently the $TSX Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Bullish Percents Hold Interesting Clues In Gold This Week

by Greg Schnell

Gold has been so fickle. Some weeks Silver confirms, some weeks the miners confirm, some weeks the $USD confirms. Today Gold , Silver and the Miners are all at interesting points on their charts. Here is what I see: Look on the Bullish Percent Index. Almost every month, the trend in the second week of the month has been pretty informative.  Notice how informative the second week is.  A few months it extended to the thrid week in a sideways pattern, but a breakout up or down was meaningful. Looking at the actual tradeable issues, GDX, GOLD, SILVER are all in a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Commodity Based Economy - A Book On Where We Are

by Greg Schnell

This will be an extremely long blog. I have broken it out into five sections: 1) Three year charts of the commodities in the CRB Index. 2) The Currencies of the Commodity countries. 3) the stock exchanges for the commodity countries. 4) The stock exchanges for demand in Asia and Europe. 5) A conclusion. Here are the many components of the $CRB. Just a quick scan to see the weighting and how they are performing compared to the 40 WMA or the 200 DMA average.  Just note how they are doing compared to the 3 year history. Here is the second part of the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Cenovus Crushes The Fundamental Approach To Valuation

by Greg Schnell

Every now and then a stock comes along that just drives you crazy. Cenovus has to be one of those story stocks. Given the keys to the oil empire in the split from Encana, Cenovus looked promising from every aspect. As a large Canadian company with the ability to produce major growth rates in production from the Christina Lake and Foster Creek projects,  the investing community came to expect great things from this company. I reviewed their January 2014 Presentation to find out the Oilsands technology they are using has a $45/bbl production cost. They have mitigated 85% of the Heavy Read More