The Canadian Technician

$TSX Indicators Are Yelling Selling

by Greg Schnell

Somedays the $TSX charts smile, and some days they don't. Rolling through my main market summary charts, the chart below is the 2nd chart on the chartlist. (The first one is the Fed meeting dates overlaid on the $SPX.) I could not help but notice the right edge of this chart and cringe with disappointment. Until something changes dramatically, I am not happy with the setup. Lets start at the top. The RSI - I have been mentioning that we looked pretty stretched on the RSI and need to be cautious here. In May, the RSI has not been able to get back above 70. That is particularly important Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Prairie Sky Launches As A Spinout From Encana

by Greg Schnell

One of the largest royalty IPO's to come out this year started trading today. Prairie Sky Royalty Ltd. (PSK.TO) started trading and jumped up over 25% on the original IPO price of $28. The first trades this morning went through at $34.99!! Enjoy! Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKM.TO) Bounces Off The 200 DMA

by Greg Schnell

Tekmira (TKM.TO) has been on the top of the Canadian SCTR rankings for most of the last 2 years. I spotted it today on the Biggest Movers. It found support at the 200 DMA or 40 WMA. This looks like an interesting buy point that allows us to place the stop very close. We can see the volume has stabilized after the big week in April. The SCTR shows the stock is behaving better than 90% of the stocks on the $TSX. The RSI is bouncing at the 40 level which is what we would expect if the stock is going to be staying in a bull trend.  There has been a huge increase in volume since the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canfor Settles On The Long Term Moving Average

by Greg Schnell

Canfor (CFP.TO) has been in a long up trend. It has been a beautiful ride. Today Canfor looks like it is at a major support line. There is some indication that the investor support is waning. The RSI has put in the lowest low in 2 years on the chart marked by the yellow arrow. It bounces at the 40 level which is considered the lowest level for a bull market trend so that is still ok. The SPURS in purple are in the longest decline in two years so that is concerning. What concerns me even more is the SCTR. For the last 2 years it was in the top 50% of the stocks. It is now living in the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

America's Largest Retailers Chart Review

by Greg Schnell

There has been a huge volume of news out of the mainstream retailers the last two weeks.  It seemed like all of them found their way onto the news channels. It prompted me to dive in and review the sector. I included two from the apparel retailers and the rest are the major ones from the broadline retailers industry group. While the two major apparel retailers are included, they were also two of the strongest stocks in the review. Let's dive in and work through them one at a time. Dillards (DDS) and Nordstrom (JWN) are in the Apparel Retailers and have been doing extremely well Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Manulife Builds an Excellent Topping Structure

by Greg Schnell

Manulife (MFC.TO) looks to me to be breaking down. It has one final support level left in the completion of a topping pattern. Lets work through an in depth analysis on the weekly and the daily.  The RSI has been below 60 for 4 months.  The SPURS are also declining which means Manulife is underperforming the SP500 ($SPX). The investor community is less likely to buy stocks underperforming the index if they are trying to beat the index. On this daily chart, we can see Manulife has fallen below the top quartile SCTR ranking. It now ranks in the bottom quartile which usually Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Time to Get Bullish On Commodities?

by Greg Schnell

One of the benefits of writing a blog is setting up charts at some previous date, and flipping through them much later. Way back in 2012, I created this chart. At the time commodities were really suffering after a brutal 2011. I have updated the trend lines on this chart, but I have not altered the settings. Let me describe the chart first of all. The data is weekly. The time span is 20 years. The actual price values of each commodity have been set to invisible, and the only data line on each chart plot is the relative strength line which I like to call SPURS -the $SPX relative Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is A High Bullish Percent Reading For Canada A Problem?

by Greg Schnell

The Bullish Percent Index is a great way to see extremes in the market. However, the concern with looking at this indicator now is where we closed last Friday at an extreme level. When I study the chart, the market does not seem to top out near these extremes. Would it take time for the market to weaken? The red arrows mark significant market tops. The US 2007 top, the Canadian top in 2008, the 2011 Commodities top. In 2008, the energy sector continued to surge on the back of crude oil. The rest of the Canadian market was already falling and it peaked at a much Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Smart Technologies Looking Like A Smart Investment

by Greg Schnell

Smart Technologies pulled back hard from it's initial IPO. After making a large base the stock has started to change behaviour recently. For those that are not aware, Smart makes interactive white boards that are used in classroom settings. I was recently at Georgia Tech with Goeffrey Kennedy of Elliott Wave International and I noticed they had the Smart Technology there. That perked my interest in the stock, which is a Calgary based company. Here is the chart. Notice the volume change recently. The stock is getting more interest. Still thinly traded, but note the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Energy Rolls Over

by Greg Schnell

The energy stocks ETF for the Canadian Energy sector has pulled back in the last two days.  This is a seasonal move that traditionally relaxes till July.  Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Commodity Currencies Show Strength? Does That Help Canada?

by Greg Schnell

The commodity currencies have been doing well lately. Interestingly, the industrial commodities are relatively weak. The soft commodities like Agriculture are doing well. Here are the metal commodities. Nickel has soared because of Indonesia holding back supply. All of these charts below compare to the performance of the $SPX.  Here are the energy commodities. Notice coal perking up after being a very poor performer. We can watch Teck or Walter Energy. Arch Coal in the US is starting to move. Lastly, here are the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Bondi Beach Leading Wave Rolls Over - $AORD

by Greg Schnell

The Australian market is an important market to follow for global commodities. As a commodity cornerstone to Asia, this market can be very indicative. Recently the Aussie chart broke to new highs. Check it out. In February and early March, the Australian market tried to take out the October highs. Both pushes rolled over. Now the chart shows two recent attempts in April to make and hold new highs. Both attempts have failed to stay above the October highs. The MACD has a significantly lower high building while the price has a higher high. This negative divergence shown with an orange arrow Read More