The Canadian Technician

A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 4 - 2011 Commodity Charts

by Greg Schnell

The individual commodities each took their turn on a launch pad at Cape Canaveral it seemed. The sequence of lift offs and tops was truly remarkable. However, most of them topped and did a major retracement just as quickly. That is usually how commodity tops work out. This is the fourth article in a series of modern day Manias.  This is a specific article about all the commodity tops in 2011. Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000.  Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007. Part 3 can be found here. The Year 2011 Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 3 - 2011

by Greg Schnell

I could have written a specific article on the price of oil going ballistic in 2007 and 2008, but I will try to correlate that 'oil' story with the 2014 fall in oil.  2011 will be remembered as the commodity top and that is what we will cover in this article. Many of the world's commodities topped in 2011, with the most obvious being Gold and Silver.  This is the third article in a series of modern day Manias.   Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000.  Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007. For consistency Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 2 - 2007

by Greg Schnell

This is the second article in a series of modern day Manias. Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000. 2007 was a market top that will be remembered for a long time. It started with a market mania in the housing sector, created a mania in the banking sector and caused a series of events that fell like dominoes as they relentlessly tumbled one after the other. Let's bring up the chart showing how the topping structure looked. Compared to the 2000 top, this market was remarkably different. The tops were still close to each other. The Russell 2000 ($RUT) made its top in July Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 1 - The Year 2000

by Greg Schnell

I want to review some of the major market peaks and what made them roll over. Part of the analysis is the way the rollover happens. It is a changing of mood and of circumstance that eventually affects a wider audience. So let's go to the charts and explain the 2000 top. The 2000 top was characterized by a specific sector breaking down. After having what anyone would call a boom, the technology sector imploded. Many companies that had no earnings were building out the world with new ideas. Massive sums were paid for companies with no earnings. The AOL merger was the classic buy at the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What Effect Does A Drop In Oil Have? A Ripple, A Wave Or A Tsunami?

by Greg Schnell

Today I'll be doing a webinar at 4:30 EST on the effect of oil's drop. If you live in an oil producing region, you'll have some ideas, but these charts will bring it home. If you aren't living in an energy hub, this could be a huge perspective change for you. I think you'll find the narrative compelling. This will cover off Canada and the US situation. A few years ago, our province changed the tax system on oil and gas in Alberta. Within 6 months, the economy stalled and the government was forced to change the policy back. The Oil patch is very aware of the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Are There Any Clues To A Top In The Sector Rotation Cycle?

by Greg Schnell

I want to start the article to reset our boundaries, our framing, our paradigm on the markets. When we see the S & P 500 ($SPX) make higher highs we continue to assume everything is just fine. But underneath is a massive sector rotation that used to be very complex. Why is it no longer complex? The liquidity of the 9 sector ETF's is remarkable. To move massive amounts of money from sector to sector, in less than 10 clicks of a mouse you can redeploy huge positions from XLE to XLP. Here is how we think of Sector Rotation. So the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Gold Finally Moves Above The Trend Line

by Greg Schnell

The Gold Tracking ETF (GLD) finally broke above a downtrend line today. On Chart 1 we can see it broke above the 6 month downtrend line. However, it is still trying to break above the red trend line which would mark a breakout above a basing area for GLD. Chart 1 Here is GLD on a weekly chart. We can see it broke through support/resistance around 115. Now it has been able to base in this area and turn higher. It looks really promising for the gold stocks here but we are still early in a trend breakout. Here is a look at the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canada's Big Three Oil Companies Look To Find Support

by Greg Schnell

The oils are being bought today even as Western Canada Select Crude price falls. Both Suncor and Cenovus had spinning top days. (Spinning top =opened,  traded higher and lower and closed in the middle near the open). CNQ was weaker and looked to close near the lows. Here are the top three big oil producers. Starting with Suncor.   Here is CNQ.TO Here is Cenovus. Buying Cenovus today, you are 4 years after the IPO and getting around the same price. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX Continues To Stall Under The 200 DMA - A Volume Analysis

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX is at a very pivotal point on the chart. Why is this so pivotal? I laid out a scenario in the December 17th article, The $TSX Has A Huge Day. We have spent a few holiday weeks trying to change the view. Here is why this is so important. . Chart 1 On Chart 1, we recorded a very strange volume candle since the December 17th article. We had more volume on this particular "year end and quarter end and monthly" Options Expiration Day than any other day in history on the $TSX. More than the 2008 financial crisis Read More