Dancing with the Trend

February 2016

Dancing with the Trend

Candlestick Analysis - Trend Determination

by Greg Morris

In the first few minutes of the trading day, a great deal of overnight emotion is captured.  Sometimes special events cause chaos.  For example, on the New York Stock Exchange it may take several minutes for the market maker (used to be a specialist) to open a stock for trading because of a large order imbalance.  However once a stock or commodity does open, a point of reference has been established.  From this reference point, trading decisions are made throughout the day.  The Japanese believed that the period of time from the close of trading in the previous Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Secular Bulls

by Greg Morris

This is a complementary article to Secular Bears that I wrote on May 14, 2015.  To be perfectly honest (that is how someone usually leads into telling a lie) I planned on doing this article shortly after the first one and totally forgot.  Secular Bulls and Secular Bears is terminology that I don’t ever recall hearing more than 15-20 years ago.  Now I see the term bandied about all of the time and often it is different in a number of ways.  For full disclosure, my entire education on secular markets comes from Ed Easterling.  Ed wrote two wonderful books that I Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Candlestick Analysis

by Greg Morris

In 1988 I attended a Market Technician’s Association (MTA) meeting in Phoenix at the Camelback Inn.  There were two wonderful highlights that occurred at that meeting: one was an introduction to Japanese candle pattern analysis/charting, and the other was meeting Ian McAvity who published Deliberations newsletter for over 40 years and remains a great friend.  Ian, you can relax because the remainder of this article will be about Japanese candlestick analysis, even though stories about you would be quite entertaining. At the conference there was a Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Blinded by the Noise

by Greg Morris

I’ve discussed noise a few times in the past but it needs to be brought up again.  Just in the course of a normal week, we are bombarded with information from sources such as the FED, television analysts, brokerage firm analysts, economists’ projections, newspapers, junk mail, neighbors, war reporters, etc.  Making investment decisions without a plan or methodology is truly a gamble.  And to think that there are academic types who advocate that the markets are efficient, which means everyone has all the available information at the same time, and therefore cannot possibly Read More