Dancing with the Trend

Aftcasting

by Greg Morris

Wall Street is loaded with experts who make forecasts on the future market direction and market level many times a day.  If you see a rather serious technical analyst on television, you can count on the talking head interviewer to ask him/her where the market is going.  They must comply, or they won’t be asked back.  The networks know their viewers want to hear forecasts.  Years ago, I was on Fox Business and the talking head (won’t mention her name) said I see you like technology because it is in your portfolio.  I responded that I did not particularly like Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 7

by Greg Morris

This article is a follow up of the previous one in this series - Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 6.  Table A is an example of the detailed research behind each of the various indicators used in the weight of the evidence.  This example uses over 30 years of data; however, it should be run over many different periods to find consistency.  Table A is the performance data for the Price Long indicator. Table A While the calculation of all the various measures of an indicator’s ability to work over a vast number Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 6

by Greg Morris

It is time to start getting into the measures/indicators to be used in the model.  Note: When I was presenting at the big wire houses, I used the term measures as seemed to be easier for advisors to understand.  Now, dealing primarily with technical analysts, indicators seems more appropriate. At some point I'll pick one and stick with it; just remember they refer to the same thing.  We will start with Price-based indicators/measures.  Price-based means that the indicator is measuring movement in price instruments; whether it be from an index such as the Nasdaq Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Execution!

by Greg Morris

I am on record stating that most technical analysts do not trade with real money.  I have no hard data to support that brash statement, rather it is my observation after speaking at hundreds of seminars and conferences and knowing hundreds of technical analysts.  Many are famous.  Many call themselves traders, yet most could not produce their P & L statement if they had to.  I truly have no problem with that, if they are good educators and not misleading their audience that they manage money or trade real money based on their analysis.  Lots of market Read More