Dancing with the Trend

Article Summaries: 12/2017 - 4/2018

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I have had as a technical analyst for 45 years; the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Hence, they have shelf life (well, certainly in my mind they do).  You can click on the headers for a link Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 8

by Greg Morris

Another price-based measure I use in my weight of the evidence is called Adaptive Trend.  This was modeled after an indicator from the Bloomberg service called Trender.  Adaptive Trend identifies price swings based on the daily trading range.  It uses Average True Range (ATR), exponential smoothing, and standard deviation as inputs. The resulting indicator is a trend-following approach not unlike some Parabolic Studies.  In an uptrend, a support line will appear below the price. A sell signal is generated when price closes below the support line. In a downtrend, a Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

General Comments on Trend Following

by Greg Morris

Since there are many new readers, I thought an overview on trend following might be appropriate.  As I have stated often, I use a market analysis methodology called trend following.  Sometimes it should be called trend continuation. Why?  My trend analysis works on the thoroughly researched concept that once a trend is identified, it has a reasonable probability to continue.  I know that is the case because most of the time markets are trending markets and I see no reason to adopt a different strategy during a period of mean reverting, such as we have experienced Read More