Dancing with the Trend

Discipline, Discipline, Discipline!

by Greg Morris

Discipline is the Key!  You should look up the definition for both the noun and the verb. Over the years I've stressed the importance of having discipline in any investment strategy, and that is certainly still the case. A couple of years ago, when the market was in an ongoing up move, I had to take each small correction seriously because I never knew when it would turn out to be more than just a simple pullback or correction. I was whipsawed at times, selling my positions during weakness and then having to buy back in when the market turned up again, often at a higher price. While Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Things That Can Screw Up Your Investing!

by Greg Morris

I’ve written before about heuristics and cognitive biases in my Know Thyself series from a couple of years ago.  Here I put together a list of them with short definitions and explanations.  That space between your ears is generally a horrible investment decision maker. Anchoring Bias – Too often investors base decisions on the first piece of information they hear or see.  With the stock market, this is usually the price at which they bought a stock.  It is from that price most future decisions about what to do with it are based.  This helps explain why I prefer Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold

by Greg Morris

The timing of this article is appropriate. Part of this was written by Tim Chapman who was a founder of PMFM, the company I worked with and later became Stadion.  I liked its message so am updating it with this article.  I remember back when I was managing money, I had an interesting conversation with a longtime client. He was appreciative that I was able to protect his retirement account and produce a positive return over the past three years (2007-2009 bear), but he almost felt guilty mentioning it to friends who've lost 50% or more of their money. He had a great line when he Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Junk Science; Junk Analysis!

by Greg Morris

I don’t think I have offended anyone in quite a while and feel I’m not doing my job if I don't try to periodically; so here goes! Often a simple mathematical series of numbers can sometimes get misinterpreted (promoted) to be something magical.  My personal favorite sequence is 6, 28, 496, 2520, 8128, and 24601.  I’ll explain them at the end of this article.  Personally, I see no value in the actual numbers that make up the Fibonacci series; a series developed by an Italian mathematician (Fibonacci) in the thirteenth century to help understand the propagation of Read More