Dancing with the Trend

The Challenge of Technical Analysis

by Greg Morris

I put an image of the Moon on this article because we are approaching the 50-year anniversary of Neil Armstrong setting foot on the Moon - July 20, 1969.  I was between my sophomore and  junior year at the University of Texas majoring in Aerospace Engineering so was especially touched about this event.  If you have not seen the new Apollo 11 movie; I strongly suggest you see it.  It is not actors; it is actual video of the entire Apollo 11 trip from preparation until they are in a parade in NYC.  A little more on that at the end of this article. Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Volatility and Emotions

by Greg Morris

This is part of a client letter I wrote when running MurphyMorris Money Management about 20 years ago.  The message is the same today.  Market volatility has an emotional cost.  It causes investors to make irrational decisions that are usually based on either fear or greed.  Volatility also carries a steeper financial cost than most realize.  Consider the two investments in Table A below.  The one on the left (Boring Investment) is a dull, boring, plodding investment.  It never hits a home run, but never strikes out either.  The investment on the Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Various Strategies

by Greg Morris

This article follows the concepts laid out in the previous article about Passive versus Active Management. The comments below give brief pro, con, and comments on the various strategies.  With the benefit of hindsight, the market can seem predictable; however, many of these strategies are more useful in describing the market’s past than in anticipating its future. Buy and Hold Pro: Low cost as tries to avoid market timing and transaction expense.  Assumes that asset prices always rise which is strongly supported by Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Passive versus Active Management

by Greg Morris

I spent a lot of time discussing technical analysis and want to help readers try to understand its value by discussing passive versus active management. Passive means that the investor or manager does not change the portfolio components except for occasional, usually based upon the calendar, rebalancing to some preconceived ratio of stocks and bonds.  Passive is prosaic and often is designed just to replicate the market.   An active investor or manager is one who attempts to invest in top performing stocks or assets using some methodology to assist in that process.  Read More