DecisionPoint

The DP Alert Daily Report - One Stop For Market Posture and Timing Signals

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DecisionPoint.com has been providing table/spreadsheet reports for years. Each report provides a complete review of the market day, in addition to comparisons to previous days and to other indexes and sectors. In a glance you can see numerically what the market has accomplished as well as the actual values for our indicators. There are five reports that are uploaded to the DP Reports blog each day. Additionally, the DP Daily Update, which I covered in yesterday's blog is the lead article each day in the DP Reports blog. Today I'm going to cover the DP Alert Daily Report.


This report is the cornerstone of DecisionPoint content. The DP Alert Daily Report has been printed for nearly 20 years. It presents the Trend Model signals for the major indexes and sectors for the day and how long the signal has been in place. It also lets you know how that signal has been doing since it was generated. You will also find the indexes and sectors sorted by percent change, price momentum signal changes, and PMO strength ranking. The DP Alert Daily Report is also reprinted in the DP Daily Update, so you'll find past DP Alerts in the DP Daily Update archives which go back to 2010. This report's signals are tracked by Timer Digest, a technical analysis magazine that summarizes the track record for major analysts in the business (Tom McClellan, Steve Todd, Hamzei Analytics, Christopher Cadbury, among others). Here is the first part of the DP Alert report, I think it is self-explanatory. I'll go over the second half further below.


DECISIONPOINT ALERT DAILY REPORT
Monday, 5/12/2014

************************ DECISIONPOINT MARKET POSTURE ***********************

The following is the market posture suggested by our mechanical trend-
following tools. These are not trading recommendations, rather they are price
activity flags that should be qualified by chart analysis. The Trend Model is
used on all indexes.


                                     Days   Index     05/12   Points  Percent
Index               Posture     Date Elap  @Start     Close      P/L      P/L
------------------- ------- -------- ---- -------   -------  -------  -------
Stocks Medium-Term  Bullish 02/11/14   90   181.18   189.79    +8.61    +4.8%
Stocks Long-Term    Bullish 02/11/14   90   181.18   189.79    +8.61    +4.8%
Gold (NY Spot)      Bearish 04/22/14   20  1283.10  1295.80   -12.70    -1.0%
20+Yr T-Bond  (TLT) Bullish 01/17/14  115   104.43   110.79    +6.36    +6.1%
------------------- ------- -------- ---- -------   -------  -------  -------
Dollar Index  (UUP) Bearish 02/13/14   88    21.53    21.37    +0.16    +0.7%
Commodities   (GSG) Bullish 02/11/14   90    32.16    33.16    +1.00    +3.1%
Crude Oil     (USO) Bullish 02/10/14   91    35.63    36.59    +0.96    +2.7%
------------------- ------- -------- ---- -------   -------  -------  -------
S&P 500       (SPY)     BUY 02/11/14   90   181.18   189.79    +8.61    +4.8%
S&P Equal Wt  (RSP)     BUY 11/30/12  528    51.21    73.99   +22.78   +44.5%
Dow           (DIA)     BUY 02/20/14   81   160.47   166.80    +6.33    +3.9%
Nasdaq 100    (QQQ) Neutral 04/10/14   32    85.10    88.23     ....     ....
NDX Equal Wt (QQEW) Neutral 04/11/14   31    35.34    36.90     ....     ....
S&P 100       (OEF)     BUY 02/14/14   87    81.12    84.24    +3.12    +3.8%
S&P 400 MidCp (IJH)     BUY 11/28/12  530    97.22   137.17   +39.95   +41.1%
S&P 600 SmlCp (IJR) Neutral 04/25/14   17   106.71   107.83     ....     ....
Total Market  (VTI)     BUY 12/10/12  518    70.89    98.27   +27.38   +38.6%
Consumer Disc (XLY) Neutral 04/08/14   34    64.03    64.64     ....     ....
Cons Disc EWt (RCD) Neutral 04/11/14   31    75.86    78.34     ....     ....
Consumer Stpl (XLP)     BUY 03/04/14   69    42.47    44.55    +2.08    +4.9%
Cons Stpl EWt (RHS)     BUY 02/20/14   81    89.95    95.31    +5.36    +6.0%
Energy        (XLE)     BUY 02/24/14   77    87.28    94.33    +7.05    +8.1%
Energy EWt    (RYE)     BUY 02/21/14   80    79.74    86.87    +7.13    +8.9%
Financial     (XLF)     BUY 02/13/14   88    21.53    22.15    +0.62    +2.9%
Financial EWt (RYF)     BUY 02/12/14   89    38.91    40.90    +1.99    +5.1%
Health Care   (XLV)     BUY 04/29/14   13    58.07    58.41    +0.34    +0.6%
Health Cr EWt (RYH)     BUY 05/09/14    3   116.24   118.04    +1.80    +1.5%
Industrial    (XLI)     BUY 11/29/12  529    36.08    53.80   +17.72   +49.1%
Industrl EWt  (RGI)     BUY 07/31/12  650    53.27    84.94   +31.67   +59.5%
Materials     (XLB)     BUY 02/11/14   90    45.26    48.36    +3.10    +6.8%
Materials EWt (RTM)     BUY 02/13/14   88    78.48    82.69    +4.21    +5.4%
Technology    (XLK)     BUY 01/04/13  493    28.82    36.82    +8.00   +27.8%
Technolgy EWt (RYT) Neutral 05/06/14    6    77.91    79.53     ....     ....
Utilities     (XLU)     BUY 01/17/14  115    37.75    41.87    +4.12   +10.9%
Utilities EWt (RYU)     BUY 01/21/14  111    63.25    70.48    +7.23   +11.4%

Average                               169                              +16.5%

****************************************************************************

PMO CROSSOVER SIGNALS

The PMO generates a BUY or SELL Signals when it crosses up or down through
its 10EMA. These signals tend to be short-term in duration, but they can
last for several weeks. Do not take them at face value because they can
whipsaw quite a bit. They should be used to alert you to possible trading
opportunities not used as a mechanical trading model. Always check our daily
stock charts to verify the price pattern and the configuration of the PMO.
Signals are best when price appears extended, is near support or resistance,

SUMMARY OF PMO CROSSOVER SIGNALS

                    BUY   SELL

Total Signals...:    21      6
% of Total......:   78%    22%
Ave Days Elapsed:    10     14
Ave High Profit.:    1%     2%
Ave Profit......:    0%     0%

Percentage of PMOs Rising........:  85%
Percentage of PMOs Above Zero....:  78%

                       05/12              Cal
                       Close      %      Days    High   Today   PMO
Name                   Price    Chg Sgnl Elap     P/L     P/L R/F Days
------------------- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------- ------- --------
S&P Equal Wt  (RSP)    73.99  +1.1%  BUY    0    0.0%   -1.3%    R   0
Total Market  (VTI)    98.27  +1.1%  BUY    0    0.0%   -1.4%    R   0
Cons Disc EWt (RCD)    78.34  +1.8%  BUY    0    0.0%   -2.5%    R   3
Cons Stpl EWt (RHS)    95.31  +0.6%  BUY    0    0.0%   -2.0%    R   3
Industrl EWt  (RGI)    84.94  +1.8%  BUY    0    0.0%   -2.6%    R   0
Financial     (XLF)    22.15  +1.0%  BUY    0    0.0%    0.1%    R   5
Technolgy EWt (RYT)    79.53  +1.6%  BUY    0    0.0%    0.6%    R   3
Materials     (XLB)    48.36  +1.3%  BUY    7    1.2%    1.2%    R   5
S&P 400 MidCp (IJH)   137.17  +1.4%  BUY   10    0.9%    0.9%    R   3
NDX Equal Wt (QQEW)    36.90  +1.7%  BUY   11    1.1%    1.1%    R   3
Consumer Disc (XLY)    64.64  +1.3%  BUY   11    0.9%    0.9%    R   3
Financial EWt (RYF)    40.90  +1.2%  BUY   11    1.4%    1.4%    R   5
Health Cr EWt (RYH)   118.04  +1.5%  BUY   11    1.9%    1.9%    R   3
Technology    (XLK)    36.82  +1.3%  BUY   12    1.0%    1.0%    R   3
Health Care   (XLV)    58.41  +1.0%  BUY   14    1.2%    1.2%    R   3
Nasdaq 100    (QQQ)    88.23  +1.6%  BUY   18    0.7%    0.7%    R   3
S&P 500       (SPY)   189.79  +1.0%  BUY   19    1.2%    1.2%    R   0
S&P 100       (OEF)    84.24  +0.8%  BUY   19    1.4%    1.4%    R   3
Dow           (DIA)   166.80  +0.7%  BUY   20    1.2%    1.2%    R   5
Industrial    (XLI)    53.80  +1.5%  BUY   21    1.7%    1.7%    R   5
Consumer Stpl (XLP)    44.55  +0.1%  BUY   26    2.1%    2.1%    R   5
Energy EWt    (RYE)    86.87  +0.9% SELL    3    0.0%   -0.9%    F   4
Energy        (XLE)    94.33  +0.7% SELL    3    0.0%   -0.7%    F   4
Utilities EWt (RYU)    70.48  -0.8% SELL    6    1.3%    1.3%    F   4
Utilities     (XLU)    41.87  -0.9% SELL    7    2.4%    2.4%    F   4
Materials EWt (RTM)    82.69  +1.5% SELL   17    0.7%   -2.0%    R   0
S&P 600 SmlCp (IJR)   107.83  +2.1% SELL   48    5.0%    2.2%    R   0

Average                       +1.1%        11    1.0%    0.4%        3

*****************************************************************************

MARKET AND SECTOR INDEXES SORTED BY TODAY'S PERCENTAGE CHANGE

                    05/12                       WTD    MTD    YTD
                    Close         $   %age   %Price %Price %Price
Name                Price    Change    Chg   Change Change Change
---------------- --------  -------- ------   ------ ------ ------
SP 600 SmlCp iSh   107.83     +2.25  +2.1%    +2.1%  +0.7%    -1%
Cons Disc EW        78.34     +1.35  +1.8%    +1.8%  +1.4%    -2%
Industrial EW       84.94     +1.50  +1.8%    +1.8%  +1.3%    +4%
NDX Equal Weight    36.90     +0.61  +1.7%    +1.7%  +1.5%    +2%
Technology EW       79.53     +1.28  +1.6%    +1.6%  +1.3%    +3%
Nasdaq 100 Shrs     88.23     +1.43  +1.6%    +1.6%  +1.0%    +1%
Industrial SP       53.80     +0.79  +1.5%    +1.5%  +1.5%    +3%
Materials EW        82.69     +1.23  +1.5%    +1.5%  +0.7%    +4%
Health Care EW     118.04     +1.80  +1.5%    +1.5%  +2.2%    +7%
SP 400 MidCp iSh   137.17     +1.94  +1.4%    +1.4%  +1.4%    +3%
Technology SP       36.82     +0.49  +1.3%    +1.3%  +1.0%    +3%
Consumer Disc SP    64.64     +0.80  +1.3%    +1.3%  +1.3%    -3%
Materials SP        48.36     +0.61  +1.3%    +1.3%  +1.4%    +5%
Financial EW        40.90     +0.49  +1.2%    +1.2%  +2.0%    +4%
SPX Equal Wt Ind    73.99     +0.81  +1.1%    +1.1%  +1.0%    +4%
Total Mkt Vipers    98.27     +1.10  +1.1%    +1.1%  +0.8%    +3%
Financial SP        22.15     +0.22  +1.0%    +1.0%  +0.9%    +2%
SP 500 SPDRs       189.79     +1.82  +1.0%    +1.0%  +0.8%    +3%
Health Care SP      58.41     +0.59  +1.0%    +1.0%  +0.5%    +6%
Energy EW           86.87     +0.77  +0.9%    +0.9%   0.0%    +8%
SP 100 iShares      84.24     +0.70  +0.8%    +0.8%  +0.6%    +3%
Dow Indust SPDR    166.80     +1.08  +0.7%    +0.7%  +0.8%    +1%
Energy SP           94.33     +0.66  +0.7%    +0.7%  +0.6%    +7%
Cons Stpl EW        95.31     +0.59  +0.6%    +0.6%  +0.8%    +6%
Consumer Stpl SP    44.55     +0.04  +0.1%    +0.1%  +0.7%    +4%
Utilities EW        70.48     -0.60  -0.8%    -0.8%  -2.3%   +12%
Utilities SP        41.87     -0.39  -0.9%    -0.9%  -3.1%   +11%


In the section for Strength Ranking, notice there are what we call "Hot/Cold Groups/Blinkers". These groups and "+" "-" symbols add even more dimension to the ranking. They tell you which way momentum is currently swinging. The definitions are at the bottom of the report, but let me go over each of the columns with you using samples from yesterday's report.

The PMO Rank is based on the PMO value, the higher the value, the stronger the momentum and internal strength of that index. The report also shows you how the rank has changed over the past 5 and 15 days. I also like that you can see the percentage price change not just for that day, but for the past 5 days and 15 days. 

Let's look at the Hot/Cold Group and blinkers. The groups are on a scale of 1 to 6, with 1 being 'hottest' and 6 being 'coldest'. They are hot or cold based on their internal strength, price strength and rank strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or the same ( ).

So if we look at the first row, the Energy cap-weighted sector is only in group 4, not so "hot". The blinkers reading across tell us the PMO is below its 10-EMA but its closing price is above its 20-DMA. The PMO is falling but it is above zero. In the past five days it has moved up in rank.


 

MARKET INDEXES RANKED BY STRENGTH

This section ranks market indexes by Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
relative strength so that we can observe rotational trends and identify the
sectors that are gaining or losing strength.

                      |-RankChg-| |---- % Price Change ----|  Hot/Cold
                  PMO    5    15      On     5    15           Group &
Index            Rank  Day   Day   05/12   Day   Day    YTD   Blinkers
---------------- ---- ----  ----  ------ ----- ----- ------ |---------|
Energy SP           1   +1   +2    +0.7%    0%   +1%    +7%  4 -+ -+ +
Energy EW           2   +1   +2    +0.9%    0%   +1%    +8%  4 -+ -+ +
Utilities EW        3   -2   -2    -0.8%   -2%    0%   +12%  5 -- -+ -
Utilities SP        4    0   -2    -0.9%   -2%   -1%   +11%  5 -- -+  
Consumer Stpl SP    5    0    0    +0.1%   +1%   +2%    +4%  1 ++ ++  
Cons Stpl EW        6    0    0    +0.6%   +1%   +2%    +6%  1 ++ ++  
Industrial SP       7    0   +2    +1.5%   +2%   +2%    +3%  1 ++ ++  
Materials SP        8   +2    0    +1.3%   +1%   +2%    +5%  1 ++ ++ +
Industrial EW       9   +2   +1    +1.8%   +2%   +2%    +4%  1 ++ ++ +
SP 100 iShares     10   -1   +1    +0.8%   +1%   +2%    +3%  2 ++ ++ -
Materials EW       11   -3   -4    +1.5%   +1%   +1%    +4%  4 -+ ++ -
Dow Indust SPDR    12    0    0    +0.7%   +1%   +2%    +1%  1 ++ ++  
SP 500 SPDRs       13    0   +1    +1.0%   +1%   +1%    +3%  3 +- ++  
SPX Equal Wt Ind   14    0   -1    +1.1%   +1%   +2%    +4%  1 ++ ++  
Financial EW       15   +2   +2    +1.2%   +2%   +3%    +4%  1 ++ ++ +
Technology SP      16   -1   -1    +1.4%   +1%   +2%    +3%  2 ++ ++ -
Total Mkt Vipers   17   -1   -1    +1.1%   +1%   +1%    +3%  2 ++ ++ -
Financial SP       18    0    0    +1.0%   +1%   +1%    +2%  1 ++ ++  
SP 400 MidCp iSh   19   +1   +2    +1.4%   +1%   +1%    +3%  1 ++ ++ +
Health Care SP     20   -1   +4    +1.0%    0%   +1%    +6%  2 ++ ++ -
Health Care EW     21    0   +2    +1.6%   +1%   +3%    +7%  1 ++ ++  
Nasdaq 100 Shrs    22   +1   -3    +1.7%    0%   +2%    +1%  2 ++ +- +
Technology EW      23   -1   -3    +1.6%   +1%    0%    +3%  2 ++ +- -
Consumer Disc SP   24   +1   +2    +1.3%   +1%   +1%    -3%  2 ++ +- +
Cons Disc EW       25   -1    0    +1.8%   +1%   +2%    -2%  2 ++ +- -
NDX Equal Weight   26   +1   +1    +1.7%   +1%   +1%    +2%  2 ++ +- +
SP 600 SmlCp iSh   27   -1   -5    +2.1%   +1%   -1%    -1%  4 -+ +- -

Average                            +1.1%   +1%   +1%    +4%


The final sections of the report summarize various indicators, seasonality, sentiment, etc. Also at the bottom, you will see the definitions for the columns of the report, including the hot/cold groups and blinkers, followed by caveats, copyright, etc.


************************* MARKET INDICATOR SUMMARY *************************

The purpose of this section is for an "at-a-glance" review of market
indicators. The ratings/signals are based on simple algorithms that analyze
arbitrary ranges and direction. ALWAYS LOOK AT THE CHARTS! The number to
the right of each signal is the number of calendar days for the signal.

PMO and PMM SIGNALS                  Dow     S&P 500         NDX
-----------------------------   --------    --------    --------
PMO Crossover Signal (Price):    BUY  20     BUY  19     BUY  18
Price Momentum Model Signal.:    BUY 934     BUY 934     BUY 447

SEASONALITY
-----------------------------
IT Seasonality..............:   Unfavorable until 11/1/2014
ST Seasonality..............:   Favorable from 5/22 to 5/26

SENTIMENT INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Wall Street Sentiment Survey:    20% Bulls   50% Bears  (5/9)
AAII Investor...............:    28% Bulls   29% Bears  (5/7)
Investors Intelligence......:    56% Bulls   20% Bears  (5/2)

MISCELLANEOUS INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Adv Vol/Decl Vol............:    5.8 (9.0 or greater is very bullish)
10 DMA of Adv/Declines......:    1.50 (2.0 or greater is very bullish)
S&P 5-Day Price Momentum....:    +0.6% (+7.5% or greater is very bullish)
1-Day Arms Index............:    0.64 (2.0 or greater is ST bullish)
10-DMA Arms Index...........:    1.10 (1.5 or greater is IT bullish)

***************************** CYCLE PROJECTIONS *****************************

                          Last       Next  Estimated  Estimated  Estimated
                         Cycle  Projected  Cycle Top      Cycle  Cycle Top
PRICE Count                Low  Cycle Low  Bull Bias  Mid-Point  Bear Bias
-------------------   --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ---------
5-Week Cycle......:   04/14/14   05/18/14   05/06/14   05/01/14   04/25/14
10-Week Cycle.....:   04/14/14   06/21/14   05/29/14   05/18/14   05/06/14
20-Week Cycle.....:   02/05/14   06/22/14   05/07/14   04/14/14   03/22/14
9-Month Cycle.....:   02/05/14   11/06/14   08/06/14   06/22/14   05/07/14

*****************************************************************************
DEFINITIONS

Signl: The signal designations of BUY and SELL indicate the current
direction of momentum and are not an indication that continuous buying or
selling should take place.

Cal Days Elap: Indicates the number of calendar days that have elapsed since
the current signal was initiated.

High P/L: Highest profit or least loss experienced since the current signal
was initiated.  On the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the
closing P/L for the prior signal.

Today P/L: Current profit or loss for the signal since it was initiated. On
the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the closing P/L for the
prior signal.

The Hot/Cold grouping ranks securities/indexes into six (6) groups ranging
from 1 (Hot) to 6 (Cold) according to price strength, internal strength,
and relative strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these
elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to
right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its
10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if
the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and
fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it
is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO
rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or no change ( ). Groups 1-3
should be considered as buy candidates, 4-6 as sell candidates.

*****************************************************************************

CAVEAT

We make every effort to insure the accuracy of this information, but we
cannot guarantee it. It is always possible that errors will creep in. If it
doesn't make sense, let us know about it. Also, we make every effort to
upload this data each market day, but it may not be possible due to
circumstances beyond our control.

*****************************************************************************
INFORMATION HEREIN IS INTENDED TO ASSIST RESEARCH AND SHOULD NOT BE
CONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY.
*****************************************************************************

End of DecisionPoint Alert Daily Report for Monday, 5/12/2014.

Copyright 2014 StockCharts.com. This publication is not to be summarized,
reproduced, or rebroadcast in any fashion without our written permission.


This report is available to paid subscribers only. Remember the DP Alert Daily Report is published after the market close everyday and can be found in the DP Reports blog.

Happy Charting,
Erin

Erin Swenlin
About the author: is a co-founder of the DecisionPoint.com website along with her father, Carl Swenlin. She launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009 alongside Carl and now serves as a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor at StockCharts.com. Erin is an active Member of the CMT Association. She holds a Master's degree in Information Resource Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology as well as a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Southern California. Learn More
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