Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle - April 2, 2014

Tim Ord

Tim Ord


Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold SPX on 4/1/14 at 1885.52 = gain 1.78%; Long SPX on 3/26/14 at 1852.56.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat

Today the SPY tested the March 21 on and volume dropped nearly half of the volume that was recorded on March 21 and suggests the March 21 (near 189) has resistance. Yesterday the Ticks closed at +1000 and suggest short term exhaustion for the market. Also this is the “Third Time up” testing the recent highs and suggests either the market will break through or form a larger top. With the volume lacking and yesterday’s +1000 ticks readings suggests a top could be in the making. Job reports come out Friday and market may hold steady into that timeframe. Staying neutral for now. The March 31 Timer Digest report came and showed us 5th for the 3 months timeframe; ranked 9th on the 6 months timeframe and ranked 10th on the one year timeframe.


Above chart looks at the short term timeframe for advance issues and declining issues and up volume and down volume indicators. The top window is the McClellan Oscillator and readings above “0” suggests the market is in an uptrend. Today this indicator closed near +80 (which is bullish) but closed below yesterday’s high even though the SPY was higher which is a negative divergence. Next window down is the Up volume/Down volume ratio which is above 1.50 and a bullish condition for the market. The SPY made a higher high today and this indicator made a lower high and a minor negative divergence. Next window down is the 9 period moving average of the advancing issues and 9 period moving average of the declining issues. This indicator is on a bullish crossover. The bottom window is the Advancing issues/Declining issues. Readings above 1.50 are bullish and today’s close came in at 1.55 but this indicator has not moved up with the SPY and a bearish sign. Uptrend is intact but not showing strength. The tick readings closed yesterday at +1000 and suggest short term exhaustion in the market and that the upside should be limited. We sold or long SPX position yesterday for a gain of 1.78%. We are staying neutral for now.

We have shown this chart before and are updated to today’s trading which is the monthly US dollar (USD). Over the last month or so a new divergences has showed up which a lower low on the monthly RSI and Slow Stochastics as the USD made a higher low. This condition preludes at some point a breaking of the trend line we have labeled “Neckline”. The pattern forming starting in late 2011 appears to be a “Head and Shoulders top” pattern where the Head is a Double Head. A break of the Neckline (near 80) could set in motion a down break of the lower boundary line of the large “Triangle” pattern that has been forming since 2005. Since this chart is on a monthly timeframe the breaking of the Neckline could come at any time or could hold off several month but would appears this break will come before the seasonal Fall period. The picture remains bearish for USD and would be a bullish sign for Gold.
Long GDX at 23.65 on 2/7/14; sold 2/13/14 at 25.44 = 7.6%. Long GDX at 21.83 (1/7/14) sold 1/24/14 at 23.90, gain 9.5%. Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75 on 4/27/12. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5%. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy on www.Amazon.com

Tim Ord, Editor                              
16928 Van Dorn Street                                 
Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com
(402) 486-0362.                                                  
tim@ord-oracle.com