Short-Term Sentiment: Bullish.
Overall Intermediate-Term Sentiment: Mixed for the market
Individual Investor Sentiment: ST Neutral. IT Neutral for the market.
Small Speculator Sentiment: ST Bullish-to-Mixed, and IT Bearish for the Market.
Small Hedge Fund/Manager Sentiment: ST Bullish for the market and IT Bearish for the Market.
Longer-term Trend:
Bull Market Condition.
Intermediate-term Trend:
Negative. Unconfirmed.
Short-term (one-day) Signal:
Buys.
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We are still on FL/FS and Options Oscillator Buys. Breadth gave a confirmed Sell. We have a "Best Fade" Buy.
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Options Sentiment--
Daily P/C ratio: 1.01. Bullish
10-day P/C ratio: 0.91. Neutral.
Equity P/C ratio: 0.69. Bullish.
OEX PC ratio (not a fade): 1.67. Neutral.
OEX 10-day PC ratio: 1.25. Neutral. Nearing Bullish.
ISEE Sentiment Index: 93. Bullish.
10-Day ISEE Sentiment Index: 101. Neutral.
Options Oscillator: +5. Still on a Buy.
Relative VIX: Neutral.
Daily VIX: Buy.
CBOE:SPX: Sell. Confirmed.
OBSG: Buy.
The options are looking mostly Bullish, with an Options Oscillator Buy, but after a drop like today, I expected more excessive readings. The CBOE:SPX gave a Sell and confirmed. We may be in for more wekakness. The Market Harmonics' Options Buyers Sentiment Gauge (thank you, Tony Carrion http://www.market-harmonics.com) is on a Buy.
Most options indicators are contrary; if most folks are buying calls, we want to fade them and go short and vice versa. The OEX nominal P/C is an exception, because the OEX traders tend to be right, unless they are paying up for options (which will show up in the $-weighted data). The ISEE Sentiment Index indicator is contrarian; traditionally, over 200 is too optimistic, under 100 is too pessimistic. OBSG provided by Tony Carrion of Market Harmonics.
General Public Polls
Investors Intelligence reported 55.10% Bulls and 19.40% Bears vs. 55.80% Bulls and 19.70% Bears last week. That's like one less Bull and one less Bear. This is still a solid Sell.
National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Survey reported that the Median market exposure rose from 78.00% to 81.50%. The mean exposure rose some from 76.81% to 78.18%. The minimum exposure rose to 0% short. The Maximum exposure stayed at 177% long. Looks like folks got a bit more Bullish. Not much help.
AAII is showing 33.12% Bulls and 22.61% Bears. Last week, we had 28.34% Bulls and 28.66%. This is more Bulls and less Bears. This is Neutral.
The Newsletter Advisors got less Bullish at 41.20% (Long) vs 47.00% (Long). This is pretty mellow. The Naz advisors got more Bullish at 18.80% (Long) vs. 6.30% (Long). This isn't much help. It's not inconsistent with lower prices, however.
Lazlo Birinyi's site, Tickersense reported 20.83% Bulls and 54.17% Bears vs. 30.33% Bulls and 47.83% Bears. That's less Bulls and a lot more Bears. That looks Bullish to me. This is our least predictive survey.
TSP Talk came in (Thursday evening) with 41% Bulls and 44% Bears. This is Neutral for the market. They had 50% Bulls and 35% Bears last week.
Conclusion
Last time, I said that with the Options Oscillator and a Fully Long/Fully Short Buy, the indicators suggested a bounce today, but if we did not get one, something might be up. The market fell and then blew through support like a hot knife though butter. As we were worried, breadth did confirm a Sell tonight. The CBOE:SPX also gave a Sell and momentum confirmed. "Best Trend" turned down but did not confirm. Technically, the seasonal cycle (the way we use it) turned negative too. The good news is that we have a "Best Fade" Buy. The Options Oscillator and Fully Long/Fully Short Buy are also still in force. Enough has turned down that it could be a good time to bag the Bears again. Given the way the market acted today, however, going long is not the easy game it once was. After Friday's action, it's a toss up. Watch that broken rising trend line (in chart above).
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