Top Advisors Corner

Gene Inger: The Inger Letter - December 1, 2014

Gene Inger

Gene Inger


Descriptive superlatives - are unnecessary to see the risk in this market. It is overbought of course; manipulated probably; technically eye-opening just by virtue of an historic string of sessions failing to break even the S&P 5-day Moving Average. How to describe unprecedented action? Unsustainable


As are most upending moves that upset conventional wisdom; this one too is based largely on Oil at the moment. It's being (for members only).

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES is what this is about. (Redacted heart of discussion); doesn't that create a different kind of liquidity crisis?

A diminished or changing Petrodollar recycling is so big a deal it explains a lack of US (redacted). A 'Black-gold swan'.   

Daily action -  holding position-posture and live intraday (both) short-sale from the E-mini / December S&P 2072 level over the weekend.

We do expect the new week (reserved projection). Enjoy the holiday!

Prior highlights follow:                                                                      

This market in relation to the overall economic growth 'they pretend' is out there, is a stock market version of unrequited love (as the two should hit it off together after a courtship driven by years of Federal Reserve stimulus).

What can happen; likely translates into (reserved overall analysis).

Bottom-line: this is Thanksgiving; we sure wish everyone a joyous holiday; at the same time we realize that October's early harvest results in a purge; but there's no way a proper planting for the new season would be mature in such a fast-paced manner. This is dangerous; it's momentum-driven, mostly by (reserved); against a backdrop of a strong Dollar; that should negatively impact margin and revenue pressures on many multinational companies.
 
It's not complicated: a manipulated market where they are once again very afraid, and I mean very afraid, to let go; knowing what might happen. If not afraid then they're complacently overconfident. Caveat emptor.

Instead of 'giving Thanks' this time of year and harvesting gains; they might in a sense feel empowered by the incredible move which set an historical record just today, by virtue of the longest string 'ever' over the 5-day moving average (attests to the controlled if not manipulated nature of this advance).

When the market climbs like this, with V(reserved). However, the VIX as a proxy is actually a bit higher than in a sense (more; but it's 'Beta' is higher). 

The idea that this market will 'never go down' or persist for 20 years is folly; not gonna happen. Nor will it persist well into 2015 without interruption. In reality, it's again so high that (as detailed for ingerletter.com members). 

Enjoy the holiday weekend! 

Gene Inger

www.ingerletter.com