Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle - December 11, 2014

Tim Ord

Tim Ord


Monitoring purposes SPX: Closed short SPX on 12/10/14 at 2026.14= gain 2.37%. Short SPX 12/5/14 at 2075.37.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat 


The pattern that could be forming on the NYSE is a Head and Shoulders bottom where the Head was the October low.  We where hoping to find panic in this region on the NYSE near 10550 (today’s close was 10662.24 and close enough) and panic was present (see page 2).  The current decline may be forming the “Right Shoulder” and if the NYSE does find a bottom near current levels a possible Head and Shoulders bottom is in the making.  We don’t have a completed buy signal but one may form shortly.  Covered our short SPX on tonight's close for a gain of 2.37%.

Worthwhile bottoms form in the market when panic is seen.  One of the best gauges to determine panic is present is by TRIN and Tick closes.  When the Ticks close below -300 and the TRIN closes above 2.00 a bottom normally forms on the day these readings are met to as late as two days later.   Today the Ticks closed at -688 and the TRIN closed at 3.47 and in the parameters for panic readings.  Therefore a bottom may form as early as today to as late as Friday.  There is support nearby for the SPY.  The SPY has support at the previous high of September (near 202) and the trend line connecting the lows up from the June 2013 low which also comes in near 202.  The “Rate of Change” (ROC) for the VIX jumped 56.77% and another sign of panic and the 10 day average of the TRIN closed at 1.40 and in an area where previous bottoms have formed. Closed our short SPX on tonight’s close at 2026.14 for a gain of 2.37%; short on 12/5/14 at 2075.37.

The top window is the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index.  Since mid November the Bullish Percent index has stayed at 6.67% which means of the stock in the Gold Miners index there are 6.67% of those stocks that are on point and figure buy signals; not a strong showing.  Next window down is GDX.  One would like to see GDX to close above its previous lows near 20.24 as that would create a bullish “Shakeout” and give a target back to the previous highs near 28.  So far GDX is still below 20.24.  Next window down is the GDX/GLD ratio.  It's bullish for both gold and gold stocks if the Gold stocks are outperforming gold and that happens when this ratio is rising.  As you can see this ratio has been falling and not a bullish sign short term.  Bottom window is GLD the ETF for Gold.  GLD did close above the previous lows of 115 producing a bullish “Shakeout” and a bullish sign for gold and implies gold has made a bottom of some degree.  The bullish “Shakeout” suggests a rally back to the previous high near 130.   We are looking for a bullish setup for GDX and that hasn’t been triggered yet.

Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com
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