So, yes, we saw yet another failure today when the S&P 500 got back to 2119 and turned south, but it didn't turn south very hard. That's good to see if you're bullish. The market is trying to hold up better on this latest test of the usual 2119 S&P 500 area. The oscillators on the daily chart are actually bullish with the stochastic trying to turn up from the 50's. Add in the MACD, not too elevated, and the RSI in the 50's, and there really are no excuses for the bulls.
Nothing overbought. Nothing flashing oscillator inappropriateness. The bulls have it if they want it. This doesn't guarantee anything, and we can only hope the market won't sit around all week waiting on Friday's Jobs Report. If that's the case, it will be a very boring week, and the bulls will need to come up with the perfect report. Not too hot, and definitely not nearly as cold as last month’s report. If I'm a bull I would love to see the market make the breakout now, and not have to depend on the Jobs Report getting the job done. It could, but I wouldn't want to have to count on it. It has been disappointing lately, so let's hope the bulls rock this thing before the big report.
After two gap downs that looked like the end of things for the bulls, they have now established multiple gap ups to put those gap downs out of the picture. That didn't seem possible, to be honest, but you never put anything past the bulls in this froth-driven market. The gap up today held. That's very important, because it's occurring right in front of the breakout. Gap ups from well below matter as well, of course, but when you establish a gap up that holds in front of the big breakout level it makes it tougher for the bears to knock the bulls down in the short term.
Gap ups are important, of course, more than just about anything else, but it really does make a difference where these gap ups take place. It often makes a statement about what's about to take place. Never a guarantee, but this gap up on top of the previous ones just below puts a lot of pressure right now for the bears to respond, or they know they're in big trouble. Bears back off when they have multiple gaps strung consecutively, but they'll be sure, one would think, to at least try here. It's do or die time again. This time for the bears.
When you have a large number of negatives on hand, and the market refuses to fall, and then you add multiple gap ups near the breakout, you have to assume the move will be made. No guarantee, but you need to ask yourself without emotion, why is this happening? When a market wants to do something it does it without interruption from outside activities. Head down is head down. The market will ignore what it needs to and right now in this moment it's doing a lot of ignoring to be sure. So many problems that are being swept under the rug.
The bears can still be hopeful, since we have no breakout yet, but it has to be so tough to be on the dark side of the trade. I actually feel for the bears. It has to be beyond frustrating. So for now, if you're a bull, you sit in disbelief that we're so close to breaking out with solid oscillators in place but you know to take nothing for granted in this game -- meaning see it and then respond. Responding too soon has been a disaster as many of you can attest to. There have been many moments that said the breakout is imminent only to see big gap downs. Be careful and be smart. A blast through 2119 and a close that way is the key.
Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com, a live Trading Room of his swing trades and technical market analysis. A free 15-day trial to Jack’s Trading Room is available at www.SwingTradeOnline.com.