Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 18, 2015

Tim Ord

Tim Ord

Monitoring purposes SPX; Sold long SPX on 6/17/15 at 2100.44 = gain .77%. long on 6/15/15 at 2084.43.
Monitoring purposes Gold: Flat.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat

Timers Digest ranked the Ord Oracle #6 in performance for 6 months updated June 1, 2015.
The top window is the McClellan Oscillator and today it closed at -29.56 and below “0” an remains bearish.   Next window down is the Up volume/Down Volume ratio with a 5 period moving average.  Reading above 1.65 are bullish and today’s reading came in at 1.11 and bearish.  Bottom window is the Advance/Decline ratio with 5 period moving average and a close above 1.45 is bullish; today’s close came in at 1.11 and falling.  Next window up is the advance issues with 5 period moving average and declining issues with 5 period moving average and today’s trading produced little change from yesterday’s and in neutral position. Even though the market rallied modestly, three of the four indicators on this page are bearish where the four is neutral and not the type of readings we like to see on a two day rally.  We don’t have the signs to go short but the upside looks limited also.  Correction on yesterday’s report, we sold our SPX position  on 6/17/15 at the close for a gain of .77% (not .077%) and will remain neutral for now.

We where expecting a stronger rally today to prove the strength of the uptrend, but instead the internals got weaker.  A possible scenario that may be developing is a Head and Shoulders top formation. These patterns have symmetry and there fore if there is a trip left shoulder there should be a triple right shoulder.  On the chart above I noted the possible “Triple Left Shoulder” number 1,2,3 and the possible “Triple Right Shoulder” and number 3 is in development.   Page one of this report showed some of the indicators we follow that help judge the strength of the market and three are weak from yesterday and the fourth is neutral suggesting the upside is limited.   We will see what develops over the short term, unless the market shows sign of strength, we could end up with a sell signal.  Back on the sidelines on today’s close.

There is a trend line connecting the December low to the March low and came in near today’s low and found support. and bounced.  However the bounce may not go far and find resistance near 19.25 range which is the next upside resistance. The window above the GDX window is the daily RSI chart.  Reading near 30 and below on the RSI suggests that the market is extended and can produce a bounce, of which this one did.  Not a lot going on here and risk is high for minor loss both on the long side and short side.   Market bottoms can form in two ways; one with panic and the other with a dull listless period.  A dull and listless period could be forming now.  We also keep an eye on the Commitment of Traders report (COT) and the commercials (Smart money) are nearing a level where bottoms can form for Gold.  Don’t see anything real bullish here but don’t see anything real bearish either for short term.  Longer term picture is nearing a bullish resolution as the monthlies are showing bullish divergences. Staying neutral for now.

Tim Ord,