Monitoring purposes SPX: Covered 6/13/16 at 2079.06 = gain .81%; Short SPX on 6/10/16 at 2096.07.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold GDX on 6/10/16 at 25.96 = gain 14.97%. Long GDX on 5/31/16 at 22.58.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28
Friday, Monday and today the TRIN and Ticks closed in extreme levels suggesting a low is near by. Also this is option expiration week which normally has a bullish bias. A likely scenario is a bounce to the gap near 211 on the SPY and if gap is tested on lighter volume would suggests resistance and a possible another pull back. FOMC meeting announcement is tomorrow and may produce short term volatility in the market. Could be quiet before the announcement but a rally after that could last into Friday. First upside resistance is near 211 on the SPY.
Above is the chart of the NYA that shows a possible “Three Drives to Top” forming and where the “Third top” could still form a double top (like first and second tops) if market rallies back up. The FOMC announcement is tomorrow at 2:00 Eastern and could produce short term volatility. The TRIN and Ticks have been reaching extremes the last three days and suggests a bounce is coming short term. Also notice that the VIX closed lower today as well as the NYA and that is also a bullish short term combination. If the bounce does materialize and rallies back to the recent high could produce the double top ( for the third top) and put symmetry in the “Three Drives to Top” pattern. This potential “Three Drives to Top” pattern predicts a pull back to where the pattern began which is near 10,000 on the NYA.
The previous four days, GDX tried to punch though the May 2 and it appears that attempt has failed. It is said “ if a market can’t break through the previous highs with a “Sign of Strength” it reverse and attempt to take out the previous low”. The previous low comes in at 21.94 which came on May 25 and a possible target for the next low. There are two divergences which are the RSI and the MACD and help to support the pull back scenario. GDX/GLD ratio closed below the June 7 low and GDX is still above the June 7 low showing that GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and GDX/GLD ratio usually leads the way. We will remains patient for now. Sold GDX on 6/10/16 at 25.96 = Gain 14.97; Long GDX at 22.58 stop at 23.00. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy on www.Amazon.com.
Tim Ord,
Editor
