SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/13/19 at 2811.87 = loss 2.05%; Long 5/9/19 at 2870.72.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%.
Yesterday’s low had higher volume than the day before, suggesting yesterday’s low needs testing on lighter volume before a final low is in. Today’s rally tested yesterday’s high on lighter volume, which implies resistance and a pullback is in order. The “3-day TRIN” did reach in bullish levels yesterday. Support comes in the November and December 2018 highs and the 200-day moving average, which comes within the range of 275 to 277 SPY range and an area to watch for a bullish setup.
A couple of days ago, we had shown this chart. At the time, we were looking for a bounce that was testing lower. The bounce came, but was short-lived and we didn’t get out. Now, the testing will most likely produce a bounce that could last. The top window is the 3-day TRIN. When it hits above 1.50, a lasting rally usually follows and yesterday we hit above 1.50. The second window up from the bottom is the rate of change for the VIX; when it hits above 50%, which it did, a bottom is not far off. Today’s rally tested yesterday’s down gap on lighter volume, which implies resistance and yesterday’s low had high volume (which is usually tested). We don’t believe the final low is in, but it is very near. Testing below 2800 on the SPX may produce more panic readings in the Tick and TRIN.
Above is the monthly GDX chart. We have a 5, 9, 13 period moving average on the monthly GDX chart going back to 2014. A bullish crossover occurred back in January, which is still in force. The bottom of the trading range in 2017 comes in near the 21.00 range. GDX fell below this level in August 2018 and then closed above it in December 2018, creating a bullish “Shakeout” (false breakout). When a downside “Shakeout” occurs, the market normally breaks out to the top side, which would imply a break above the top of the trading range (near 25.00). GDX is now backtesting the support near 21.00 and appears to be finding support. There is a “Price by Volume” level between 22.00 to 23.00 range, which GDX ran into in February and March; this stopped the advance. Once through this level, it should provide support. GDX has been in a low-volatility state since 2017 and bigger swings should start to develop in the coming months. After the current back test is completed, an impulse wave higher may begin that could last into October. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.