Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 25, 2019

 | 

SPX Monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38. 
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%.

The chart above is the three-week moving average of the American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Ratio, going back to late 2010. We have been showing this chart recently because is relative to the current timeframe. We previously said that “[i]ntermediate-term rallies have occurred in the SPX when this ratio reached .75 and lower. The most recent low reading came in at .53 on June 3; it currently has bumped up to .87. Going back to 2010, this ratio reached at least 1.25 before any worthwhile SPX top formed. This week could see a retracement in the SPX, but, in general, the market should move higher in the coming weeks. We will be looking for a bullish setup in the coming days.” Today’s pull back did produce a bullish setup.

The SPY was up four days in a row going into last Thursday. When the SPY is up four days in a row, it closes higher within the next five days 87% of the time, with an average gain of 1.1%. Also on today’s decline, the TICK and TRIN did reach panic levels, which suggests a low is being reached from today to as late as two days later (which would be Thursday). July 4 is next Thursday (markets are closed) and holidays commonly produce reversals in the market. We wouldn’t be surprised if market rallied to the July 4 timeframe. (Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.)

The top window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index with a 10-period moving average. The Bullish Percent Index measures the percent of stocks in an index that are on “Point & Figure” buy signals.  When the 10-period moving average of the Bullish Percent Index rises above 40%, a bullish signal is generated for the Gold Miners Index. The red vertical lines show when bullish signals were generated in the past. The current read is 53.20%. Some of these bullish and bearish signals in the past have lasted for months. As long as the 10-period moving average of the Bullish Percent Index for the Gold Miners index remains above 40%, the uptrend should continue. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.

Tim Ord,
Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

StockCharts.com Icon
About this blog: contains free samples of interesting market newsletters from a wide variety of professional authors. New articles are posted as they are received from the authors. Note that subscription solicitations may appear inside these articles. All opinions expressed in these articles are solely the opinion of the article's author, not that of StockCharts.com. The materials in these articles are the property of the article's author and may not be reposted without the author's explicit permission.
Subscribe to Top Advisors Corner to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!
comments powered by Disqus