SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 3/25/22 at 4543.06.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.
Yesterday we said, "Above is 'the American Association of Individual Investors bull bear ratio'. Lows in the market have formed when this ratio falls below .75 (current reading is .60). This is a sentiment indicator. This chart dates back to early 2017 and the blue vertical lines show the times when this sentiment indicator fell below .75. There can be short-tem pullbacks when this ratio falls below .75, but usually not a lasting decline. Today (Monday), the SPY gapped down on the open. The second trading day (Tuesday) is up 80% of the time and the full week is up 98% of the time. Tomorrow is 'turnaround Tuesday', which suggests tomorrow will be an up day." SPY down .38%, but triggered a TRIN and TICK buy signal today.
It's been a hard week so far. Going back to the late March high, we listed the bullish TICK and TRIN combinations. Two-day TRIN that adds up to 3 has been a bullish sign short-term. The only time its not a reliable bullish signal is when coming off a high, which the 4.04 two-day TRIN was. The next signal came on April 7, which had a 1.24 trin close, while the day before had a -265 tick close. These types of signal have been relatable in the past, but this one appears to have failed. The next signal came today with a trin close of 1.38 and, yesterday, a closing tick of -576. Its been our experience that, when a TICK and TRIN signal fail and a new signal follows up shortly after, the new signal works. If the TRIN had closed near 1.00 or lower, we would have exited our long position SPX position, but that was not the case.
Yesterday, GDX tested the "Buying Climax" high of 3/8/22 on lighter volume and backed away. Today, GDX is back to the 3/8 high and not backing away. If GDX holds near the 3/8 high of 40.26, it will imply that GDX is eating through supply and will eventually work higher. If GDX manages to stay near current prices or higher for the next couple of days, that will imply the next impulse wave has started. Notice that market has only retraced 38.2% retracement of the previous rally from the late January low. This condition suggests the retracement is at the halfway point of the move up, giving a target near the 47.00 range on GDX.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.
