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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: T-Bond Blowoff Top Signaled

by Tom McClellan

T-Bond prices have had a nice run upward since the lows in October and November 2018, but now we are seeing an important indication of a blowoff top, suggesting bond prices will not be able to continue higher from here.  The indicator in this week’s chart is a Ratio-Adjusted McClellan A-D Oscillator for high grade corporate bonds. The A-D data, as well as the determination of which bonds are high grade, is as provided by FINRA. See this article for a description of the difference between a Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator and the classic version.  Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: Freefall.

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/ufAZPx If this looks like Niagara Falls, it's because it is like Niagara Falls. We have been warning since October of the severity of this downwave and took 99.9% of our personal capital to the sidelines long ago. Hopefully, our readers have done the same. If not, infinite pain. Sometimes investors are reluctant to bail out because they "don't want to lose their position" (or they believe in Malkiel). Well, if your position is bleeding like a stuck pig, why is it so attractive?  Plus, you can always get back in - and probably Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 18, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The chart above goes back 5 years, showing the times when Equity Put/Call (CPCE) reached >.95 (current reading .97).  CPCE reached > .95 eight times; seven of those times where bottoms and most were major bottoms. A quiet day tomorrow before the FOMC announcement at 2:00 EST, which could be the catalyst for a rally. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lumber Sees Rogue Wave, Now Ready For a Bounce

by Tom McClellan

Lumber prices are going through what I call a “rogue wave” event, named for the massive oceanic waves which can swamp ships. The physics of the oceanic rogue waves are similar to those in the financial markets. The implication for lumber futures prices is that we should see a return to the 450-500 area, up from the current prices in the low 300s.  In the ocean, a rogue wave forms when one wave “borrows” energy from adjacent waves, making a localized wave crest well above the surrounding sea level. Rogue waves in the ocean are also marked by having an adjacent trough that Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 11, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The above chart is from Nautilus Investment Research. It is a seasonality chart for the month of December, going back 91 years. The low for December according to this Seasonality chart is expected on the 15th, which is Saturday. The FOMC meeting occurs on December 18 and 19, next Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears the market is settling at a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: More of the same, only more so...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/ErVJMf When you get more of the same in all probability you will get more of the same  -- as in the first rule of trends --the present trend tends to continue. This also pertains to volatility. From the last high, the market is down 316 points. In the last three trading days price is down 177 points. A prescription for watching with fascination from the sidelines. W.H.C. Bassetti Edwards-Magee.com Click here for more information on subscribing to the Edwards & Magee newsletter. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Mortgage Rates Explain Housing Weakness

by Tom McClellan

Housing sector stocks have been among the worst performers in 2018, and analysts are pointing to lots of different reasons, including the newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. But an easier explanation arises when we look at interest rates. Mortgage rates are not yet empirically “high.” I bought my first house with a 13% mortgage, so rates that start with the number 4 still seem pretty low, at least to me and my ge-ge-generation. The key insight contained in this week’s chart is that mortgage rates are high compared to 30-year T-Bond rates. Both rates Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 6, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The American Association of Individual Investors' bull bear ratio (AAII) has reached levels where intermediate term lows have formed. The .75 level of the 3-period moving average (AAII) has been hit, suggesting markets are at an intermediate term low. The TRIN closed at 2.76 and Ticks at -357, producing panic readings that suggest a bottom will Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Consumer Discretionary Sector Shows Enormity of the Beat-Down

by Tom McClellan

Investors’ appetites for risk taking can be measured with the comparison of the Consumer Discretionary sector versus Consumer Staples. The big shift in their behavior recently shows the huge abandonment of risk appetite in October to November 2018, but it also creates a huge oversold opportunity. The staples companies make things which consumers need all the time; our use of tooth paste and toilet paper does not vary much with the state of the economy. But if economic prospects are looking grim, we might exercise “discretion” by holding off buying a new pair of $200 Nike Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 28, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 We looked at the 3, 10, 21 day moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio several days ago. The chart has been updated to yesterday’s close. There are a lot of equity puts the public is holding and, previously, when they have been loaded up in Puts on the 3, 10, and 21 day periods the market was near an intermediate term low. The last time they (public) Read More 

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