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- Last Update: 1 April 2020, 17:28
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Categories:Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines
Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF%27s. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.
How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the components using the summary view during the trading day.
The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.
3/27/2020 Levels to Be Aware of
3386/3394 All-Time Closing High (2/19/20); All-Time High (2/19/20)
3280 Monthly R1
3231 2019 Close
3200 Round Number
3100/3167 Round Number; 100 DMA (declining); Weekly R3
3057/3068 150 DMA (declining); Monthly PP
3030/3051 200 DMA (close 16.1% below); 10% Pullback from %SPX High; Nov 2019 Low
2995/3000 38% Retracement from Dec 2018 Low; Round Number
2900/2902 Round Number; Weekly R2
2870 50% Retracement from Dec 2018 Low
2800 Round Number
2722/2744 Weekly R1; Monthly S1; 62% Retracement from Dec 2018 Low
2700 Round Number
2657/2674 20 DMA (declining); 2017 Close
2600/2637 Round Number; Last Week High
2541 Last Week Close
2500/2530 Round Number; 2018 Close; Monthly S2
2436/2457 10 DMA (declining); Weekly PP
2400 Round Number
2347 Dec 2018 Low (bottom of last correction)
2277/2300 Weekly S1; Round Number
2192/2205 Last Week Low; Round Number; Monthly S3
2100 Round Number
2000/2030 Round Number; Weekly S2; 50% retracement from Mar 2009 Low
Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.
Gold Miners (GDX) often lead Gold (GLD)
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