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- Last Update: 22 September 2020, 17:44
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Categories:Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines
Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF%27s. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.
How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the components using the summary view during the trading day.
The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.
9/18/2020 Levels to Be Aware of
3581/3588 All-Time Closing High (9/2/20) Monthly R1; All-Time High (9/2/20)
3500/3538 Round Number; Weekly R1
3483 Weekly R2
3425/3443 20 DMA (declining); Last Week High; Monthly PP
3394/3401 Feb 20 High; Round Number; Weekly R1
3343/3368 50 DMA; Weekly PP; Monthly S1; 10 DMA (declining)
3330 Battleground
3319 Last Week Close
3265/3300 Weekly S1; Last Week Low; Round Number
3230/3235 10% Pullback from $SPX High; 2019 Close; Battleground
3200/3210 Round Number; Monthly S2; Weekly S2
3186 100 DMA
3122/3130 Monthly S3; Weekly S3; Battleground
3100/3104 Round Number; 200 DMA (close 6.9% above)
3053/3058 150 DMA; 62% Retracement
2890/2900 50% Retracement; Round Number
2674/2722 2017 Close; Round Number; 38% Retracement
2600 Round Number
2500/2507 Round Number; 2018 Close
2400 Round Number
2347 Dec 2018 Low (bottom of previous correction)
2300 Round Number
2192/2200 Low for this pullback; Round Number
Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.
Gold Miners (GDX) often lead Gold (GLD)
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