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- Last Update: 4 June 2020, 11:54
Support / Resistance Lines
6/4/2020: Chunk gains continue in the cononavirus epicenter stocks, at this point they are a high % of my portfolio, tech is dead money, silver wait for pullback. The -30% target value for cash below is kind of a joke but not really, I%27m playing with house money and buying with both hands. If you have cash today add to PALL, WYNN, MLCO, LVS, MGM, AMT, MRNA, and send some to me.
Strategy based on these assumptions:
- Coming into this crisis, economy was stronger than it has been in quite some time, maybe decades?
- Government taking steps protect credit markets and financial system, we%27re not talking depression here, no reason the market will not revisit its recent highs within a year or so.
- Low oil prices (~$40 or lower) will be here for a while, reduces cost of business.
- Extremely low interest rates will fuel a ripping economy when things clear.
- Don%27t retirement money for years.
Strategy as consists of 4 parts:
1. Tech Heavyweights: Strong long-term uptrends coming into pandemic. ADBE, NOW, CRM, MSFT, AVGO, SWKS, TLSA, etc. Target 10% of portfolio.
2. Metals: Silver still oversold long-term by all tradition measures, the silver/gold price ratio per ounce (see chart) is at levels we haven%27t even come close to in the 50 years. A world back to work also needs copper. Watching for another Palladium pullback. Target 10% of portfolio.
3. Growth & stability at a value: Companies on strong long-term up-trends coming into this but have taken a big hit, generally rounds out the diversification of the portfolio. Idustrials (RTX, X, NUE, LIN), energy (CVX, COP, PSX), medical, consumer, etc. Ignoring defensive stocks that may do well while the pandemic goes on because I am looking for long-term return. Target 30%
4. Coronavirus Epicenter stocks: Airlines, casinos, restaurants, etc.
5. Cash: -30%
3/25/2020: Not sure exactly why the huge surge today but this is getting way to close to it%27s peak where the condition at the time was higher demand than supply. Right now there are nearly no (check my math if you like) cars being made, so no need for new catalytic converters. Maybe supply is down as well, but it does not take much supply to meet 0 demand.
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