- Rank: 71
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- Last Update: 27 March 2020, 9:00
3/25/2020 Update: Sold DENN, DIN, NCLH, to take profits on 39-51% gains in a couple days, keeping shares in accounts where I own less and can potentially build more during a retest. Will put cash to work in an Unemotional Way, letting the market come to me. Will start adding exit prices to charts.
Strategy based on these assumptions:
- Coming into this crisis, economy was stronger than it has been in quite some time, maybe decades?
- Government taking steps protect credit markets and financial system, we%27re not talking depression here, no reason the market will not revisit its recent highs within a year or so.
- Low oil prices (~$40 or lower) will be here for a while, reduces cost of business.
- Extremely low interest rates will fuel a ripping economy when things clear.
- Don%27t retirement money for years.
Strategy as consists of 4 parts:
1. Building positions in the major indexes as they drop, targeting levels just above the next level of support. My charts focus on SSO (2X S&P 500), QLD (2X Nasdaq 100) and UWM (2X Russell 2000), but for less risk you can use SPY, QQQ and IWM. Target 20% of portfolio.
2. A basket of stocks that are on Experts%27 wish-list for a pullback. I am ignoring defensive stocks that may do well while the pandemic goes on because I am looking for growth and I don%27t mind sitting on them for years if they continue to perform. These stocks are generally tech stocks. Target 40% of portfolio.
3. Metals: Silver appears to be extremely oversold by all tradition measures, the silver/gold price ratio per ounce (see chart) is at levels we haven%27t even come close to in the 50 years it%27s been plotted. Palladium is another one. Target 20% of portfolio.
4. Value: Stocks of companies that were on strong long-term uptrends coming into this but have taken a big hit, includes restaurants (DENN, DIN, EAT), industrials (UTX, X, NUE), energy (CVX, COP, PSX), misc.
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