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- Last Update: 28 May 2020, 10:22
Support / Resistance Lines
5/27/2020: Continue lightening up on tech to rotate into "coronavirus epicenter stocks". Breakout buys: AVGO, SWKS. Buy UAL. Breakout watch: EAT, DIN, DENN, RCL, LVS, MGM. At support, buy on bounce sell if fails: ADPT, VIR. At support sell if fails: MRNA. Patience with metals. Buy PTON at $40, watch NFLX.
Strategy based on these assumptions:
- Coming into this crisis, economy was stronger than it has been in quite some time, maybe decades?
- Government taking steps protect credit markets and financial system, we%27re not talking depression here, no reason the market will not revisit its recent highs within a year or so.
- Low oil prices (~$40 or lower) will be here for a while, reduces cost of business.
- Extremely low interest rates will fuel a ripping economy when things clear.
- Don%27t retirement money for years.
Strategy as consists of 4 parts:
1. Tech Heavyweights: Strong long-term uptrends coming into pandemic. ADBE, NOW, CRM, MSFT, AVGO, SWKS, TLSA, etc. Target 35% of portfolio.
2. Metals: Silver still oversold long-term by all tradition measures, the silver/gold price ratio per ounce (see chart) is at levels we haven%27t even come close to in the 50 years. A world back to work also needs copper. Watching for another Palladium pullback. Target 15% of portfolio.
3. Growth & stability at a value: Companies on strong long-term up-trends coming into this but have taken a big hit, generally rounds out the diversification of the portfolio. Idustrials (RTX, X, NUE, LIN), energy (CVX, COP, PSX), medical, consumer, etc. Ignoring defensive stocks that may do well while the pandemic goes on because I am looking for long-term return. Target 30%
4. Traders: I%27ve found that the food outfits have been moving up and down in large and somewhat orderly moves, these have been good for accumulating on down market days and taking profit on up market days. Target 10% of portfolio.
5. Cash: 10%
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