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Categories:Canadian Stocks
General Market Commentary
Market Timing
We also offer paint by numbers systems for bonds and gold. A diversified portfolio is offered below our commentary. As always, consult your own advisor and due your own due diligence.
The Call For The Week of June 21:
Stocks retreated from new highs to post their first losses in four weeks. Bonds and real estate stocks eeked out gains. The Federal Reserve moved up its time frame on taking away the punchbowl of free money. Stay conservative but not conventional in a balanced tactical way.
Long: SPY=30% TLT=0%, GLD=20% QQQ=30% cash=20%
Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1) for each condition:
1. $SPX is above 65wk MA
2. Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)
3. $TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)
4. Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive Utilities lead)
5. Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)
Average holding period 392.3 days. 0.58 round trip trades per year. Longest drawdown duration 50 months vs. 73 for buy & hold.
64% winning trades since 1980. Beats buy and hold with less volatility (0.53 MAR Ratio).
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.
Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay long HXT.to or XIU.to until 3 turn false (+0).
1. $TSX is trending up
2. Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)
3. $TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)
4. Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)
5. Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)
67% winning trades since 1980 - beats buy and hold with lower volatility. Buy and Hold the strongest ETFs or stocks when in BULLISH state. Otherwise hold cash or bond proxy.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.
Bullish on BOND, JNK or TLT when 3 systems are on BUY. FLAT (go to cash) when count drops to 1 :
1. If Fidelity Financial RS is positive add +1 to model count
2. If Utility RS is positive add +1 to model count
3. If Chemical RS is negative add +1 to model count
4. If Nickel ROC is negative add +1 to model count
Financial assets and utilities lead. Inflation is bad for bonds. Source: Formula Research Intermarket Bond Strategy. Send feedback for complete details.
Bullish on GLD or CGL.TO when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:
1. US Dollar Index < 7 wk EMA
2. Oil > 12 wk EMA
3. Swiss Franc > 5wk EMA
Buy Gold (GLD) if score is +3 (all three TRUE). Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 systems turn false (0).
14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold%27s Next Move 2006
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.
Bullish when 3 out of 3 are true (+1) for each condition:
1. $SPX is above 39wk MA
2. $TRAN is above 39wk MA
3. Utility Average is above 39wk MA
Sell when 2 of 3 are FALSE (below 39wk MA).
Since 1980:
Average 0.84 trades per year. Longest drawdown duration 61.4 months vs. 73 for buy and hold.
84% winning trades
11.3% cagr 17.4% max dd
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.
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