Public ChartLists

Dow Theory has been around since the 19th Century. Charles Dow was the first editor of the Wall Street Journal and delivered his seminal message in a series of editorials. Later organized by Hamilton, Rhea and Russell, the theory has stood the test of time. Bringing the theory into the modern age, we have codified the theory for your simplified use. If you can count to 5 you can follow AlphaDow.

In Chart #1 (AlphaDow), add up the numbers in the boxes. A BULLISH state first occurs when the count reaches 5 out of 5. A BEARISH state occurs when any 3 of the 5 turn negative. You can use this as a %27regime filter%27 to signal when the odds are in your favour of going long stocks or as a system to go long SPY vs. a move to cash/bonds (SHY/AGG).

The essence of portfolio management is the management of RISKS not the management of RETURNS. All good portfolio management begins and ends with this premise. -- Benjamin Graham

The Call For The Week of March 23rd:

These are unprecedented times with the Coronavirus front and centre in the minds of most while the Western world braces for a tsunami of cases. We have seen full capitulation in stocks, however, conservative investors should continue to focus on preservation. Nimble investors with shorter time horizons can continue to scale in.

Summary: Our "Sleep Well At Night" (SWAN) Portfolio uses a carefully measured suite of systems for stocks, bonds and gold.

Chart #1. 0% long SPY (30% SHY or cash) [or if you are Canadian use Chart #2. 0% HXT.TO].
Chart #3. 20% long TLT (vs. SHY -- AlphaBond)
Chart #4. 0% long GLD (AlphaGold) 20% in SHY or cash.
Chart #5. 0% long SPY (Fabian Wealth Builder) 30% SHY or cash

Each position is managed by a unique system, namely 1. and 2. AlphaDow, 3. AlphaBond, 4. AlphaGold, 5. FWB - New Dow Theory respectively.