Public ChartLists

UPDATE 7/3/18: TLT broke through the 200 day resistance a few sessions ago. All bets on higher interest rates on the long bonds are off the table in the current 'risk off' period. With the price basing in a gap island above the 200 day line, bond shorts should remain cautious until a clearer picture develops.

UPDATE: 3/3/2018- The critical line in the sand for TLT is the $117.70 price give or take about 15 cents either side of that line. This is a critical over/under mark which has been tested several times recently as I have pointed out at my website forum (www.acestocktrader.com). As long as TLT can remain above this price point, the US equities market seems to do okay. But below that mark, and all trouble breaks loose! There are two key trend lines which intersect in the $117.70 area and help to define it in algorithmic formulas. A clear break below that point shows little support (outside of Fibonacci retracements) until about $113.80, potentially leading to a bond market (and stock market) rout should that occur. Bulls may not know it, but equity and bond markets are precariously close to a major correction.

Update: 3/3/2018- The $USD chart hit the 50 day resistance line this past week and was pushed back there, as would be expected with the 50 day in decline. Now, it appears that $USD will be moving down again to re-test the recent double bottom set in February. Gold could advance in early March if this plays out as outlined here.

Update: 1/13/18- As I expected, the US $ index has hit a new 52 week low. I don't see any immediate technical support coming in. Gold price touches nearly $1,340 on 1/17/18.

Update on 11/23/17: It seems not many people are paying attention, but the Dollar's long term outlook changed when the 200 day line turned downward.

07/03/18: The price dip below the 13 EMA line and the Keltner center line on June 29th ended the rally out of the cup base that began on May 20th. Traders should have booked their profits no later than June 29th. Now a clear down-trend is established with prices in the lower Keltner Channel and overhead resistance tested by the 50 MA line. I suspect that the set-up is more bearish for commodities than many investors may think, but granted, the situation can still be corrected.

Weekly chart for West Texas Intermediate Oil

UPDATE: on 4/12/16 Break-through of down-trend wedge line is bullish for both oil and stocks. See daily chart for more precise positions, resistance and support lines.

UPDATE on 3/28/2016: The Weekly Chart shows WTI trying to break up through a steep down-trend line (blue-dashed), but so far, the strong resistance of that down-trend line is holding. OIL is at a crossroads--depending on how it breaks, will likely determine the direction of equities and commodities in the next few weeks. One can see that if WTI should break higher, that the next key resistance area would be $48. See the daily chart for more precise day-to-day projections.

UPDATE on 7/29/16: I just concluded a quite successful short trade on USO as the WTI OIl chart reaches my intermediate target at the 200 day line. Will wait for the bounce to play on out on oil, before looking to short USO again. Mike

Update October 23, 2015: Despite many pundits attempts to label gold as a lousy investment, it continues to sit near record levels vs. the commodity complex that it trades in. If gold is 'only a commodity,' well, it sure is out-performing all of its commodity brethren! More importantly, gold's value seems to be providing a much safer investment compared to almost any commodity or basic materials investment.

Gold can also be compared to all other commodities by using the CRB Index. Using this ratio, we can see that gold is NOT trading as a commodity! NO!!! It's trading mostly as an alternative currency to paper money. If it were trading like most commodities, then this ratio would be under 2.5 where it stood for many, many years. Mike.

Update on 7/7/2014-- From Bloomberg News: 'In the relative calm that is the market for U.S. Treasuries, a sense of unease over a vital cog in the financial system?s plumbing is beginning to rise.

The Federal Reserve's bond purchases combined with demand from banks to meet tightened regulatory requirements is making it harder for traders to easily borrow and lend certain desired securities in the $1.6 trillion-a-day market for repurchase agreements. That?s causing such trades to go uncompleted at some of the highest rates since the financial crisis.'

See the complete story at this link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-06/bond-anxiety-grows-in-1-6-trillion-repo-market-as-failures-soar.html

The TED SPREAD is used by financial analysts and market pros working for the big trading houses. It is a comparison between interest rates on US dollars in the US versus US dollars trading in Europe using the 3 month money market rates. In general, since the 2008 Financial Crisis, when the TEDDY is falling, this is favorable to European markets and possibly (though not always) unfavorable to US markets. Vice versa, when the TEDDY is rising, it can translate into troubles in the European markets (though not always). This is a weekly chart graphed with historical news events.

UPDATE: May 24, 2016. GLD is in a short tail-spin...losing the 50 day support, but still well within its forming base. Also, notice that the major red candle drop on May 24th leaves GLD outside its standard deviation on the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that GLD is short -term oversold. I expect the US $ rally to end near 96,which should come in early June. At that time, i would expect that GLD will rebound.

UPDATE: July 25, 2015. The GLD daily chart fell out of a descending triangle in mid-July and gapped down more than one day. The gaps occurred on selling in the overnight Asian markets. On Friday, July 24, 2015, the price reversed and finished solidly higher on strong volume-- a possible bottom--if not a final bottom, it at least seems to mark an interim bottom. Keep in mind that triangle breakdown projections point toward a low of under $1,000, but rapid selling on gaps down can sometimes signal a bottom before the longer projected targets are reached. Watch for confirmation in the following week ahead.

UPDATE on Jan. 14, 2017: The 10s-2s Ratio continues to slide as the S&P continues to hang high. This wide divergence suggests that either the bond market or the stock market has it wrong regarding the future. Most economists and market pros believe that a falling yield spread (similar to this ratio) is contractionary for the economy. In most set-ups like this, the market veteran should favor the signal given by the 10s-2s ratio rather than the signal given by the over-exuberant stock market. Could Trump's inauguration day (Jan.20th) mark the top for the S&P 500?

The 10-2 Yield Spread is very similar to the Yield Curve. The Yield Curve is a component of the Leading Economic Indicators, a US government forecasting tool. The Yield Spread often foretells where the US stock market is headed. If the spread line is rising, that's considered bullish...and falling is bearish. This chart includes a line to measure the direction of the S&P 500 ($SPX).

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