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Categories:General Market Commentary
(1/21) -- Re: Coronavirus see Warren Buffett on "hair triggers." [see notes under "The Big Picture" monthly chart"]
(1/20) -- SPY is WAY above BB(409) and BB(322).
(1/18) -- Rally just getting started? Never say never?
[See monthly Bollinger Band chart 1995-2020.]
(1/13) -- Pretty lofty heights way up here IMO.
(1/6) -- SPY is WAY above Quadruple Bollinger Band resistance IMO. [middle p. 1]
(12/30/19) -- Nikkei 225 and DAX at BB(409) also -- hmmmm . . . [p. 2]
(12/1) -- Time for a pause, or an "Irrational Exuberance" Santa Rally?
(11/18) -- Blowout Santa Rally up and over BB(409)?
(11/4) -- BB(409) resistance in play.
(8/23/18) -- The Trump Card is war with North Korea?
Have you considered that a war would change the national conversation?
(1/16/18) -- Time for a pause at BB(409)?
(12/6/16) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(2/16/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- "Seven-year Itch" Triple Top at SPX 2100?
(8/30/01) -- The Big Empty.
***** DISCLAIMER *****
These charts are for entertainment and educational purposes.
Do not rely on them to make investment decisions -- perform your own due diligence.
(11/14/17) -- SLOITC series of charts coming back -- under construction.
'The SPY Left Out In The Cold'
Various breadth etc. indicator lines provide a baseline for when SPY gets 'too high' or 'too low' IMO.
(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').
BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.
Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.
It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.
What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?
FEAR AND BREADTH !
(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.
The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.
The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:
-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and
-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).
To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.
These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.
Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.
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