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Categories:General Market Commentary
(3/31) -- Gap resistance holds.
(3/29) -- SPY 245 support to hold?
(3/27) -- Lower volume daily close below gap at SPY 260 +/-.
(3/26) -- Not reassuring -- low volume stall out at "Sweet Spot" and gap above.
Gap to cap Friday action?
(3/24) -- Dead cat bounce into sweet spot, on low volume -- gap not filled
(3/22) -- Look Out Below? -- SPX 1900 support? SPX 800 per 2016 comment?
(3/21) -- SPY 230 support holds -- a new bottom?
(3/15) -- SPY 170-200 support lines added -- "Look Out Below" for the open tomorrow?
The recent decline is "scary steep" IMO, and may presage a repeat of the 2008 final "Death Throes."
(3/11) -- SPY 230 support, just below lower BB(409)?
(3/9) -- 2008 "Death Throes" Redux?
(3/8) -- "Catch a falling knife" at SPY MA(409)?
(2/28) -- Catch a falling knife? -- Where will the free-fall stop?
(1/21) -- Re: Coronavirus see Warren Buffett on "hair triggers." [under monthly chart p. 1]
(1/6/20) -- SPY is WAY above Quadruple Bollinger Band resistance IMO.
(11/18/19) -- Blowout Santa Rally up and over BB(409)?
(11/4/19) -- BB(409) resistance in play.
(8/23/18) -- The Trump Card is war with North Korea?
(12/6/16) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(2/16/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- "Seven-year Itch" Triple Top at SPX 2100?
(4/22/06) -- Buffett "Hair Trigger" warning.
(8/30/01) -- The Big Empty.
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(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').
BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.
Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.
It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.
What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?
FEAR AND BREADTH !
(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.
The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.
The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:
-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and
-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).
To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.
These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.
Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.
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