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Categories:General Market Commentary
(7/7 -- 0437 EDT) -- Low volume -- Island Reversal resistance holding firm?
(7/5) -- Look Out Above? Island Reversal and SPY 320 in play.
(6/30) -- Island Reversal Redux at SPY 308 and MA(20) now resistance?
(6/28) -- Last gasps of "Window Dressing" IMO.
(6/25) -- EOM/EOQ/EOH "paint drying" window dressing IMO.
(6/21) -- Covid-19 vs. end-of-half window dressing IMO -- SPY 320 and MA(20) support to hold?
(6/19) -- SPY 320 "Final Top" resistance holds with weak monthly candle again.
(5/10) -- Need a high-volume move at the moving averages to bust up the logjam IMO.
No volume . . . No Bottom . . . until "The Big Money" capitulates IMO.
(4/11) -- Until "The Big Money" players throw in the towel, in a true moment of panic,
the markets are just marking time IMO.
(1/21) -- Re: Coronavirus see Warren Buffett on "hair triggers." [under monthly chart p. 1]
(1/6/20) -- SPY is WAY above Quadruple Bollinger Band resistance IMO.
(11/18/19) -- Blowout Santa Rally up and over BB(409)?
(8/23/18) -- The Trump Card is war with North Korea?
(12/6/16) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(2/16/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- "Seven-year Itch" Triple Top at SPX 2100?
(4/22/06) -- Buffett "Hair Trigger" warning.
(8/30/01) -- The Big Empty.
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(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').
BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.
Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.
It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.
What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?
FEAR AND BREADTH !
(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.
The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.
The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:
-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and
-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).
To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.
These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.
Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.
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