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Categories:General Market Commentary
One reliable long-term indicator is bullish
What are the short-term indicators saying?
Bottom fisher to the rescue?
The Bottom Fisher is pretty good at calling bottoms, even counter-cyclical ones, but it%27s important to note that that is its only function in life. Occasionally, it can call a top with a timely reversal from an extended level, but there are far too many exceptions to apply this approach, because the indicator has been specifically designed to identify short-term buying opportunities.
George Lindsay%27s 3 Peaks and a Domed House
The 3 Peaks and a Domed House chart pattern is a little known bearish reversal stock chart pattern that was discovered by stock market analyst George Lindsay who issued a market advisory letter through the 1950s to the 1970s.
wickipedia ------ a list of all depressions in the market and time length and time since the previous recession. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
The other day I was asked why I use 2 yr and 10 yr compared to 3-month and 10 yr. In a nutshell, 3 month has too many fluctuations, just like a 15-minute chart compared to a weekly. The time frame for 3-month to 10 yr average is 7 months to 24 months. It is a good early indicator, however, I suggest waiting for the 2 yr and 10 yr indicator time frame.
THERE ARE MANY ARTICLES ON THIS TOPIC HERE ARE THREE TO READ. It is important to keep a level head and look at several indicators such as housing, transportation, unemployment.
1 -Start by reading this article first, A quick section of the article.
Does Yield-Curve Inversion Guarantee a Recession? Here?s something to keep in mind, though. While the US has never had a recession that wasn?t preceded by an inverted yield curve, not every curve inversion has been followed by a recession. As the following Display shows, during the five mild inversions of the yield curve between 1986 and 2001, the US stock market returned an average of 15% in the three years following the flip, starting the month the inversion occurred. Those inversions were not followed by a recession. And when the curve inverted in July 2006, it took two years for the equity market to correct.
2- When Is The Next U.S. Recession And Bear Market https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/09/14/when-is-the-next-u-s-recession-and-bear-market/
At the current rate the yield curve is flattening, many economists estimate that the yield curve may invert as soon as December 2018, so we will use that time frame for this exercise. It took an average of 9.7 months between the time that the yield curve inverted and the stock market peaked, which means that the current bull market would peak in September 2019. It also took an average of 5 months between historic market peaks and the start of recessions, which means that the next U.S. recession would start in February 2020, assuming the current
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