Public ChartLists

The other day I was asked why I use 2 yr and 10 yr compared to 3-month and 10 yr. In a nutshell, 3 month has too many fluctuations, just like a 15-minute chart compared to a weekly. The time frame for 3-month to 10 yr average is 7 months to 24 months. It is a good early indicator, however, I suggest waiting for the 2 yr and 10 yr indicator time frame.

THERE ARE MANY ARTICLES ON THIS TOPIC HERE ARE THREE TO READ. It is important to keep a level head and look at several indicators such as housing, transportation, unemployment.

1 -Start by reading this article first, A quick section of the article.
https://blog.alliancebernstein.com/library/the-us-yield-curve-inverted-time-to-worry?mid=usrblog001&seg=18
Does Yield-Curve Inversion Guarantee a Recession? Here?s something to keep in mind, though. While the US has never had a recession that wasn?t preceded by an inverted yield curve, not every curve inversion has been followed by a recession. As the following Display shows, during the five mild inversions of the yield curve between 1986 and 2001, the US stock market returned an average of 15% in the three years following the flip, starting the month the inversion occurred. Those inversions were not followed by a recession. And when the curve inverted in July 2006, it took two years for the equity market to correct.

2- When Is The Next U.S. Recession And Bear Market https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/09/14/when-is-the-next-u-s-recession-and-bear-market/
At the current rate the yield curve is flattening, many economists estimate that the yield curve may invert as soon as December 2018, so we will use that time frame for this exercise. It took an average of 9.7 months between the time that the yield curve inverted and the stock market peaked, which means that the current bull market would peak in September 2019. It also took an average of 5 months between historic market peaks and the start of recessions, which means that the next U.S. recession would start in February 2020, assuming the current

The NYHL indicator and breadth and SPX The short squeeze is indicating that people are once again buying the highs and generally when the NYHL indicator is reaching lofty highs, we look for a reversal. I have a 10EMA on the indicator. As long as the NYHL ends the day above the 10EMA you usually are safe to a degree in a long position. A close below the 10EMA and look for a reversal in the markets.

Above 150 Topping area in normal markets
150 to 0 SPX Happy Place
Less than 0 no mans land
-350 Bottom area for normal markets
Below -900 major reversals

If you look at the top weighted stocks the $XII you will notice that XOM and CVX along with APPL are some the top weighted stocks in the indexes. Anytime the managers want to move the market easily they move the tip weighted stocks. Oil is tied to Junk Bonds (JNK) The problem is that oil was not suppose to drop to $30-$40 a barrel So there is 1.7 trillion worth of Junk Bonds that the Banks own and then the banks are reported to have given out 1.3 Trillion in loans to keep the speculators from going belly up Can we say Housing Market 2006. So you have Banks XLF Junk Bonds JNK and Oil USO all interconnected.
Exxon XOM 5.60%
Apple AAPL 5.19%
Intl Bus Mach IBM 3.27%
Microsoft MSFT 3.06%
Chevron CVX 2.94%
Walmart WMT 2.92%
Goog 2.86%
JNJ 2.55%
Proctor Gamble PG 2.54%
AT&T T 2.47%
GE 2.43%
Oricale ORC 2.32%
Pfizer PFE 2.26%
Coke KO 2.22%
Wells Fargo WFC 1.95%
N.A. PM 1.92%
Intel INTC 1.89%
JP Morg JPM 1.71%
Merck MRK 1.59%
Verizon VZ 1.54%
Cisco CSCO 1.48%
Pepsico PEP 1.46%
Schlumberger SLB 1.46%
McDonalds MCD 1.42%
Conoco Phillips COP 1.42%