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Market Breadth Analysis
General Market Commentary
This is starting to look like last August did with breadth non-confirming. In the meantime, the rotation from small cap value to large cap growth it is the only thing working right now (Chart 114) and that is not healthy so now looking for some rotation back. We want everything to participate and small cap growth has been languishing for two months.
The rise will likely continue for weeks but I think the probability of a correction is building per Chart 108. Historically (last 30 years): Jan good, Feb poor, Mar - May good. (See chart in JC Parets%27 video.)
JC Parets video: https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/all-star-charts.html
To track major holdings and buy/sell trends for the ARK funds see this spreadsheet:
Consider these ETFs: COPX DVY MGK URA XHB XLI XLV XRT
101 Buy-and-Holders: Fed has your back = bullish
102 Investors: bullish
103 Swing Traders: bullish
105 Storm Track: cautiously bullish
106 Aggressive?: on edge
107 Defensive?: turning up = bearish for market
108 Top?: no top indicated but one appears to be building
109 Bottom?: no bottom indicated
110 Intermarket: cautious bullish
111-113: Sectors (cap weight, EW, small cap): tech down but indus, fin, materials up = bullish rotation
114 Size & style: rotation
115 Factors: revert to mean = bullish
116 US Dollar: minor breakout not bullish for foreign or commodities
117: Asset Rotation: Stocks 3, Bonds 4, Real Estate 1, Gold 2
400-405: Factor ETF relative strength (RS)
5XX-6XX: ETFs for reference
"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas about the mental game.
Note: Profile says PRO but I am an engineer. Updates on weekends.
"It is enough to identify prevailing conditions and respond to them as they change, without any need to predict." -- John Hussman
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