- Rank: 42
- Followers: 12
- Votes: 16
- Years Member: 1
- Last Update: 5 April 2020, 15:25
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Categories:Market Timing
Market Breadth Analysis
General Market Commentary
I think there is a high probability that we go lower. Call me crazy, but at this point I am still more interested in "return of capital" than "return on capital." Asset classes moving together (Chart 110) so no safe place in another downturn.
Crash: (1) initial drop 30+%, (2) bounce to down only ~20%, (3) drop to 40+%, (4) bounce higher than the first, (5) drawn out decline. Steps 1 and 2 complete. We should know within a month about Step 3.
These are the likely signs to get back in (asterisk if true):
Chart 104 Momentum turning up*
Chart 103 VIX below 40, Bullish Percent above 40, Summation above -300, A/D above moving avg
Chart 108 Bottom indicated, but expecting only a bounce like 4Q 2018
Most charts are to answer a question. Chart answers below.
Stock Charts:
No. Ans. Desc.
101 SELL Buy-and-Holders
102 SELL Investors
103 SELL Swing Traders
104 SELL Active Traders
105 No Aggressive?
106 No Defensive?
107 No Top?
108 ??? Bottom? (got a bounce)
109 Factors: Not stocks (but if stocks, mega cap, domestic, growth=QQQ)
110 Intermarket: Stick to cash
Other Asset Charts:
No. Ans. Desc.
111 ??? Bond (or maybe not)
112 OFF Real Estate
113 ??? Gold
114 OFF Foreign
115 ON Dollar
116-118 Quick view on sectors
119, 120 Sample charts
Simple Six Investing:
No. Sym Ans. Val
201 VTI OFF 4-
202 TLT ON 8-
203 IAU ON 9-
204 IYR OFF 3-
205 IEMG OFF 3
206 USO OFF 4
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Approach:
Pullback in strong uptrend: high SCTR (e.g., >70) with dropped RSI (e.g., < 70) (see example Chart 119) and a ideally with a character change on the 1-minute chart (see example Chart 120).
Recommend "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas about the mental game.
Note: The profile says PRO but I am an engineer. Updates on weekends.
Finally: "It is enough to identify prevailing conditions and respond to them as they change, without any need to predict." -- John Hussman
All information is strictly for educational purposes.
20200404: Recession guaranteed. Depression a potential.
[This chart is monthly data and only update mid-month after all new data is posted.]
20200404: Earnings negative (and will be dropping further). Bounce was 38% Fib retracement. Expect it is a bull trap.
20200404: Got the bounce. Not enough to turn A/D and Summation indicators bullish. Expecting further drop.
20200404: Most market "internals" still headed down and the bounce favored defensive. Resistance at the 20-day moving average.
20200404: The small upside momentum seems spent and most are rolling over.
20200404: Defensives suffering with the whole market.
20200404: No signs of a top. (Duh.)
20200404: Remember, 4Q 2018 had a few bounces before it was done (left side of chart). Need more bears before this is over.
20200404: Expecting upturns to look like the blue circles.
20200404: Gold and bonds hanging in there but everything suffering. Would not trust any in another selloff. Stocks, bonds, gold, real estate moving together in this crisis environment -- so much for risk parity through asset diversification.
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