Public ChartLists

20200118: ***Just updated this monthly chart*** Looks similar to early 2016 and we just passed a slowdown and now headed up. Housing starts moving up sharply. Need 10-year yield to follow and looking for a bullish turn in the others for continued confirmation. In this long term view, there is room in the channel for a rise. Note, however, that earnings just dropped below its moving average.

[This chart is monthly data and a few weeks delayed so only update mid-month after all are updated.]

Note: Red and green vertical lines are aligned at the top and bottoms of the $SPX plot and the arrows below are placed upon moving average inflection points (admittedly sometimes hard in real time on some of the indicators). The goal is to see if the details can help predict the direction of the market.

"We are not in the business of buying low and selling high: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness." -- Dennis Gartman

20200118: Looking like Jan 2018 and expecting a pullback. Note that bullish percent is above 80 (on the warning track) which is pretty rare and argues for a pullback. Everything still looking strong which indicates to buy pullbacks.

Overall it looks similar to 2016 with the RSI breakout, $USHL headed higher. This is bullish for now. However, it also looks like 2014 with earnings rising but at a slower rate. Bullish until earnings (blue area plot) drop like 2015?

"Investment is a process that transfers wealth to people that have a strategy and can execute it from those who don%27t and can%27t." -- William Bernstein

"The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe , without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that %27anything can happen.%27 They don%27t just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Ultimate success as a trader cannot be realized until you develop a resolute, unshakeable belief in uncertainty." -- Mark Douglas

"Any portfolio that is allocated differently than the benchmark to provide for lower volatility, create income, or provide for long-term financial planning and capital preservation will underperform the index as well. Therefore, comparing your portfolio to the S&P 500 is inherently "apples to oranges" and will always lead to disappointing outcomes." -- Lance Roberts

20200118: Stocks reaching the upper part of the rising channel and raising cash into that move. Fade the dollar as it rises to the upper edge of the channel which means to play commodities, oil, and even foreign. Expecting bonds to retreat from their resistance line which will raise interest rates and put pressure on real estate.

"It%27s not whether you%27re right or wrong that%27s important, but how much money you make when you%27re right and how much you lose when you%27re wrong" -- George Soros

"When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen." -- Bob Farrell

20200118: Stocks losing out to real estate which further strengthened. Gold much weaker but not down for the count. Bonds weak.

[Different kind of a chart. Do not let it scare you away. (Note that this is a daily chart and often gives different results than the weekly.)]

Note 1: The purpose is to see the relative strengths of stocks, bonds, real estate, and gold not only by themselves (top four plots) but also compared to each other all on the same chart. It is based on daily data rather than weekly for most relative strength charts so it may give different results than the others.
Note 2: The color coding legend: Stocks = red, Bonds = blue, Real Estate = green, and Gold = gold.
Note 3: The vertical lines are a buy signal (>3). Rotate toward an asset >2 and away from asset <2 (itself has to be one of the count).
Note 4: The maximum score of 4 is when an asset is in an uptrend and has relative strength vs the other three assets. Make sure the asset itself is in an uptrend. If it is in a downtrend, but the others are dropping faster it could get a score of 3, but you still would not want it.
Note 5: They show the underlying data, the 20-day ema, and a Pring KST indicator overlay which tries to find the signal in the noise. Essentially this provides potentially two signals (ema and KST). The signal is whichever turns first. If they are really conflicting or flat it does not count.

"Understanding mass psychology is almost always more important than understanding economics: or more simply put, %27When they%27re crying%27 you should be buyin%27 and when they%27re yellin%27 you should be sellin%27 %27" -- Dennis Gartman

"Ninety-five percent of the trading errors will stem from the four primary trading fears about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. " -- Mark Douglas

20200118: A/D, summation, and bullish percent say the rally will continue, however, many of the other indicators say it will not be straight up so expect some consolidation. Gapping up two days in a row to jump above the upper Keltner3 channel? This is nuts. Remember to buy low and sell high (like now) and cash in partial holdings on the most extended stocks. I sure did and about 40% in cash.

Note 1: Generally, if the A/D and Summation Index are not showing major weakness, then buy the dip based on the other indicators. Likewise, when the Summation Index peaks (rolls over) consider lightening up based on the other indicators. Serious drops always include: A/D < 100-day and Sum Index < 0.
Note 2: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
Note 3: For most indicators it shows the underlying data, the 20-day ema, and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signals (ema and KST). The signal is whichever turns first. If they are really conflicting or flat it does not count.

"I use my charts to eradicate the wild horses of fear and greed by viewing my equities as cold numbers rather than as emotional dollars." -- Gatis Roze

"Stay long until unemotional metrics say otherwise" -- Michael Gettings

"Be patient and wait for the fat pitch." -- James Montier

20200118: Leading factors: Stocks over bonds, domestic *and* foreign (except developed), large cap (especially mega cap), growth over value. QQQ is the big winner here.

"The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist." -- Ray Dalio

"The difference between the investor who year in and year out procures for himself a final net profit, and the one who is usually in the red, is not entirely a question of superior selection of stocks or superior timing. Rather, it is also a case of knowing how to capitalize successes and curtail failures." -- Gerald Loeb

"The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride." -- Jesse Livermore

20200118: I *think* it%27s indicating we are at or near a local top (last week it appeared we were getting close and this week the odds got higher. Breadth non-correlation was not a strong signal but everything, including that, is indicating a top. Also, CNN Fear/Greed has been running ~ 90.

Also check the CNN fear/greed level (https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) tops are when the greed is higher (>70).

"Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names." -- Bob Farrell

"To make money, you have to bet against the consensus and be right" -- Ray Dalio.

20200118: No sign of bottom.

Note: Per StockCharts, "Recently we have had to remove the $TICK market indicator from our site. Our data vendor no longer provides this data to us and we have not been able to find a reliable alternative source. " I hope they can get it back since Linda Raschke described a method she uses with it for "screaming" buy signals.

Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival. -- Gerald Loeb

20200118: Oh my, tech (and only tech) pushed it higher. It may soon earn its red stripe.

Note 1: This is essentially a backup chart for confirmation of the Stock Risk ON/OFF.
Note 2: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 3: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).

"Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital." -- Gerald Loeb

"As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits." -- Jesse Livermore

20200118: Overall still a no. Watching for decisive break on the PPO downtrend line.

Note 1: This essentially is a backup chart to Stock Risk ON/OFF for confirmation.
Note 2: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 3: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).