- Rank: 44
- Followers: 11
- Votes: 3
- Years Member: 1
- Last Update: 18 January 2020, 14:50
Market Breadth Analysis
20200118: It looks like we are at or near a local top (Chart 107) and the move this week looks like exhaustion with two gap ups. Stocks will likely consolidate in the short term (lock in some profits) but signs still point higher in the intermediate term (Chart 105). CNN Fear/Greed ~ 90. Gold consolidating but likely to move higher. Real estate green shoots really grew. Commodities and emerging markets are worthy and will only get better as dollar turns lower after reaching the top of its downtrend channel (Chart 118).
Pullback in strong uptrend (high SCTR (e.g., >75) with slightly dropped RSI (e.g., < 70)) and rising 1-minute OBV (example: bought PODD on 12/27 and sold across three days: 1/14, 1/16, 1/17.) Just bought FDP (@34.35 and a little later than I want but looks good).
Charts 101-102 are basic trend
Charts 103-104 identify the intermarket changes
Charts 105-113 "weight of evidence" approach for stocks
Charts 114-118 "weight of evidence" approach for bonds, real estate, gold, foreign, dollar
Also note the CNN fear/greed level (https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) where there is a bias toward investing more when the fear is higher (<20) and less when the greed is higher (>70).
The book, "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude" by Mark Douglas. It is about the mental game.
Note: The profile says PRO but I am an engineer and not a financial advisor. Updates on weekends.
Apparently, if you are not a PRO member you can only see six symbols on a chart while I may be displaying up to 10 and the last ones get truncated off the bottom. It is unfortunate, however, in most cases those are the less important ones near the bottom.
Finally: "It is enough to identify prevailing conditions and respond to them as they change, without any need to predict." -- John Hussman
All information is strictly for educational purposes.
20200118: ***Just updated this monthly chart*** Looks similar to early 2016 and we just passed a slowdown and now headed up. Housing starts moving up sharply. Need 10-year yield to follow and looking for a bullish turn in the others for continued confirmation. In this long term view, there is room in the channel for a rise. Note, however, that earnings just dropped below its moving average.
[This chart is monthly data and a few weeks delayed so only update mid-month after all are updated.]
Note: Red and green vertical lines are aligned at the top and bottoms of the $SPX plot and the arrows below are placed upon moving average inflection points (admittedly sometimes hard in real time on some of the indicators). The goal is to see if the details can help predict the direction of the market.
"We are not in the business of buying low and selling high: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness." -- Dennis Gartman
This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Service for more details.