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- Last Update: 1 July 2020, 8:57
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Categories:Market Timing
Market Breadth Analysis
General Market Commentary
Chart 104 signals turned bearish in sync week before last. Last time was late February. Chart 103 is 60-min chart for early clues.
I see no signs of major breakdown to new lows, at least, not without warnings on Chart 103. In March both charts were bearish at the same time and it was a significant decline. This time I think it will be a small pullback.
Look for turns in these charts for a buying opportunity. I expect it is a short term trade and that within the coming months we will top again and end up lower than we are today.
Most charts answer a question.
Stock Charts:
No. Ans. Desc.
101 Hold Buy-and-Holders (bet on the Fed)
102 Buy Investors (at 200-day)
103 Hold Swing Traders (consider buying pullback to 50-day)
104 Sell Active Traders (be careful with stock picking)
105 Sell Storm Watch (watch detail indicators for buy signal)
106 No Aggressive?
107 Yes Defensive? (bonds and gold)
108 No Top? (but put/call complacent)
109 --- Bottom? (not applicable)
Note: Moved Factors to 207
11x series are mostly other asset charts
Simple Six:
No. Sym Ans. Val
201 VTI ON 8-
202 TLT OFF 6 (but turning up)
203 IAU ON 8
204 IYR ON 7 (drop 1)
205 IEMG ON 8+
206 USO ON 6 (up 1)
Charts for reference but many require a PRO account to fully see:
4xx series are industry areas paired with a relative strength versions
5xx 1-minute charts to look for confirmation of price moves
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Stock selection approach: See Chart 119
Recommend "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas about the mental game.
Note: The profile says PRO but I am an engineer. Updates on weekends.
Finally: "It is enough to identify prevailing conditions and respond to them as they change, without any need to predict." -- John Hussman
All information is strictly for education.
20200628: Welcome to the recession. The good news is that the FED can blow the asset bubble even bigger though the real economy is in the worst crisis since WWII.
[This chart is monthly data and there is also a lag for many of them.]
20200628: It looks like steady as she goes, but really haven%27t gone anywhere and now sitting on the 200-day.
20200628: Chart shows nothing seriously wrong, except VIX can%27t seem to stay down.
20200628: EVERYTHING points down. The last time all the signals were in SYNC heading down was late February.
Backup 60-minute chart: Watch this for signs that Chart 104 may be turning.
20200628: Aggressives? Meh. Tech only outperforming because everything else is weaker.
20200628: Defensives? Bonds and gold. Note: When XLP is outperforming that is bearish.
20200628: The data does not show a major top.
20200628: No bottom.
20200628: Short term bearish for most things.
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