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- Last Update: 18 January 2020, 14:50
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Categories:Market Timing
Market Breadth Analysis
Trend Analysis
20200118: It looks like we are at or near a local top (Chart 107) and the move this week looks like exhaustion with two gap ups. Stocks will likely consolidate in the short term (lock in some profits) but signs still point higher in the intermediate term (Chart 105). CNN Fear/Greed ~ 90. Gold consolidating but likely to move higher. Real estate green shoots really grew. Commodities and emerging markets are worthy and will only get better as dollar turns lower after reaching the top of its downtrend channel (Chart 118).
Approaches:
Pullback in strong uptrend (high SCTR (e.g., >75) with slightly dropped RSI (e.g., < 70)) and rising 1-minute OBV (example: bought PODD on 12/27 and sold across three days: 1/14, 1/16, 1/17.) Just bought FDP (@34.35 and a little later than I want but looks good).
Chartlist Structure:
Charts 101-102 are basic trend
Charts 103-104 identify the intermarket changes
Charts 105-113 "weight of evidence" approach for stocks
Charts 114-118 "weight of evidence" approach for bonds, real estate, gold, foreign, dollar
More:
Also note the CNN fear/greed level (https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) where there is a bias toward investing more when the fear is higher (<20) and less when the greed is higher (>70).
Recommendation:
The book, "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude" by Mark Douglas. It is about the mental game.
Note: The profile says PRO but I am an engineer and not a financial advisor. Updates on weekends.
Apparently, if you are not a PRO member you can only see six symbols on a chart while I may be displaying up to 10 and the last ones get truncated off the bottom. It is unfortunate, however, in most cases those are the less important ones near the bottom.
Finally: "It is enough to identify prevailing conditions and respond to them as they change, without any need to predict." -- John Hussman
All information is strictly for educational purposes.
20200118: Bonds are doing okay on their own, but lost ground to other assets classes.
Note 1: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 2: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
20200118: Real estate moved up as expected (but was surprised the move was so strong. I think the sharpness of the upward move is more a reflection on rotation from stocks and it will continue until stocks consolidate. (Yeah, that%27s a judgement call.)
Note 1: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 2: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
20200118: Gold move is not over. (Buy on dips and remember to take some profits on the way up.)
Note 1: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 2: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
Note 3: Below is the link to check the Commitment of Traders Report for gold (all one address line):
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GC*0/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=0&data=WN&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=COTLC;COTDLC&sym=GCZ19&grid=1&height=375&studyheight=200
20200118: Foreign risk on. (Apparently ignore that it is not a good time to buy per the Pring Global indicator.) Also see Dollar chart (Chart 118) since weaker Dollar is bullish for foreign stocks.
Note: 1: The foreign markets are quite varied and they do not act in unison so this is only a general take on the foreign stocks.
Note 2: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 3: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
"The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start." -- Jesse Livermore
20200118: Expecting the Dollar to go lower after the bounce to the top of the downtrend channel.
Note 1: Lots of cross currents here, but hopefully this is worth following ... we will see.
Note 2: A falling dollar has a positive impact on foreign stocks.
Note 3: For some indicators it shows the underlying data, the 10-day ema (blue) 20-day ema (orange), and a Pring KST indicator overlay. Essentially this provides potentially two signal sets. The signal is whichever turns first. If strongly conflicting maybe don%27t count them.
Note 4: The indicators are listed in a general priority ranking (care more about the ones higher up).
Note 5: Commitment of Trader (COT) Report for the dollar is (all one address line):
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DX*0/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=0&data=WN&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=COTLC;COTFIN&sym=DXZ19&grid=1&height=375&studyheight=200
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