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Categories:Elliott Wave Analysis
After 3 months using harmonic wave theory it appears both methods will get you to the same place with harmonic making for a cleaner count, with less creativity needed, and 5th waves being much easier to identify. Overall I think harmonic is cleaner and easier to interpret.
I have used a combination of Elliott/Frost & Prechter/Neely for many years. Throughout that time I noticed there was something off with that. 3-wave patterns where 5-wave patterns should be, missing 4th and 5th waves, what I thought were 4th waves actually being part of higher degree corrections... Thus a measure of creativity has been necessary to make traditional Elliott theory fit what was happening. I recently studied Harmonic wave theory per Ian Copsey where 1-3-5 of impulse waves are a-b-c instead of 1-2-3-4-5. That seems to be the answer but I am still a work in progress in figuring out if that can be used in real time. So my counts may be a mess until I determine if that is the answer.
The great mistake is to anticipate the outcome of the engagement; you ought not to be thinking of whether it ends in victory or in defeat. Let nature take its course and your tools will strike at the right moment.
Disclaimer: this is all just my opinion and I present these charts in hopes they may help others to learn something. Make your own decisions and never trade anything based on my opinions, interpretations, and biases whatever they may be.
10/30/2003: Is the new ALL TIME high in small caps a leading indicator that is favoring the bullish count presented on the preceding Dow monthly chart? Also interesting is the new highs in 2001 and 2002 which also may have been pointing to the bullish count.
Will the 30-year decline in the dollar continue? If so how might that affect oil, gold and other commodities?
'As with most market cycles, gold?s 8-year cycle is measured bottom-to-bottom. But there is more to it than just that 8-year period between major bottoms. It typically sees a 3-year upward phase, which is where most of the big gains are seen. Then the 5-year downward phase actually has a 3-wave process of going down.'
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