Art's Charts

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Elliott Wave

Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

Nothing has changed regarding my interpretation of the Elliott Wave counts for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Both indices are in Wave 4 advances or a 5 Wave decline. The Wave 4 target zone for the S&P 500 is 1080-1150, while the target zone for the Nasdaq is 2100-2200. A move above 2200 in the Nasdaq would call for a re-count of the Wave structure. With both indices trading in their target zones, upside could be limited over the next few weeks.


I am not ready to call for the start of Wave 5 because the bulk of the medium-term evidence remains bullish. Sure, there are some warning signs about, but Wave 5 cannot start until the uptrend in Wave 4 actually reverses. The green lines mark support from the October-November lows. Look for both to break these levels to reverse the Wave 4 uptrend and signal the start of Wave 5. While a pretty substantial decline would be expected in Wave 5, don't forget that fifth waves can sometimes be truncated and stop short of the Wave 3 lows.


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Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More