The Canadian Technician

Winding My Apple (AAPL) Watch - Part 2

This is part 2 of a 2 part series on Apple through the stock charts. The first article can be found here. Winding My Apple Watch - Part 1.


First of all, let's connect to the previous article with the final chart in Part 1 starting Part 2. Apple's stock tripled from August 2004 to February 2005. The new look desktop was all the rage, the U2 iPod was available and the company continued to roll out new improvements in iLife software. The Mac computers were really starting to garner attention in the PC world as Windows continued to struggle with security. The iTunes store showed up in Canada and other countries around the world. The Apple retail store was accelerating and Apple was building on the ecosystem between the computer and the iPod. The glitz of the product announcements continued to impress the media.


Chart 1

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Winding My Apple (AAPL) Watch - Part 1

With the big event coming up on March 9th, Apple (AAPL) will move into a totally new area, wearables. With $150 Billion in horsepower, Apple will release the world's biggest initial product launch ever. Since announcing the first Apple device to mount on your skin, the online world has been a social media marketing dream for Apple.


Chart 1

Authors, writers, magazines and news channels have been giving the Apple Watch massive coverage while all the competitors are trying to get some awareness of their product. 

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Natural Gas ($NATGAS) Had A Very Big Week And The Stocks Look Tasty

I have been writing about energy stocks declining for so long, maybe this is just a shot at trying to be optimistic. While preparing for the webinar last week and this week, Natural Gas jumped out at me because of the similar low to 2009. The base in Natural Gas is potentially setting up for a primary trend right shoulder. I also noticed the huge percentage gain in $NATGAS this week after Friday's close. Then to top it off, I have invited JC Parets to present to the Calgary Chapter of the CSTA in March. I was on his website on Saturday and noticed he had an article about $NATGAS. The stars are aligning, let's do a drill down. Let's look at the very long term chart first. For those readers who only buy 52 week highs, this is a little early!

Looking at the SPURS in purple, we can see that Natural Gas has trended down for years. We can also see that this is very low in terms of relative strength on this 20 year chart. The price chart is what caught my eye the most. Wyckoff did some tremendous studies on bases. One of the things he discusses is a final flush to get rid of weak hands. Well, $5 to $2.50 in three months probably gets the job done. Of course we never know if it is a 'final' flush till we get some time to the right of the low. The phrase Wyckoff uses for the final low is a 'Spring'. From this low it should bounce sharply higher. One of the problems with the base in $NATGAS is the $6 surge does not fit into the Wyckoff 'base' analogy. The price was only above the $5 level for 6 weeks through a 250 week base so perhaps we can call it an outlier.

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The Canadian Banks Arrive At The Water Valley Decision

Is this a new Canadian Bull Market? I took a field trip to Water Valley and had lunch in the only restaurant in town, the Water Valley Saloon. Yes, when you're west of Highway 22, you can literally step out of anything modern and arrive at the 1920's.  I found it so interesting that they had bull moose horns on the same wall as a black bear skin. Much like the market, pick your view! Water Valley is a special location because of the stunning beauty of the rolling foothills in front of the Rocky Mountains, It has also been a hub for old oilfield reservoirs that are being drilled out with horizontal drilling. The restaurant was pretty quiet. There were only 4 oilfield service people having lunch which is very slow for the restaurant.  I didn't see any oilfield trucks on the 1 hour drive either direction. (I did see logging trucks though!)

So that brings me to my next question that I am trying to wrap my head around. After my series on Market Manias, when one industry collapses, we see the effects slowly roll through other industries one by one. Now that oil has had a bounce, I expect some of this oil run up to unwind. Currently, some stocks are making higher highs, but others are letting go already. So let's roll this around to the banks. 

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We Didn't See That Coming - $USD & $TYX Start The Sequel

Currently, the $USD high is January 26th, 2015 which is 2 days after the ECB started QE. Would the ECB announcement matter? Chart 1 shows the current situation.


Chart 1

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A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 to 2015. Part 6 - 2014

This is the sixth article in a series of modern day manias.  This article will be an in-depth plunge into the Oil and Gas Industry.

Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000. 

Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007.

Part 3 can be found here. The Year 2011.

Part 4 can be found here. The Year 2011 Commodity Charts.

Part 5 can be found here. The Years 2013 - 2014.


Where to begin on one of the biggest booms since Turner Valley? Where is Turner Valley? It was a small town in the middle of the wild unbridled west, in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Here is a link to the Calgary Herald recently covering the history of the Dingman well in Turner Valley. Calgary Herald History of Turner Valley. The article describes the mania that accompanied the success of the well. I think it is a great grounding rod for what went on recently at the Bakken, Marseilles, and Eagleford plays to name a few. There are many more that we could add. I'll focus on the Bakken, because the reservoir was on both sides of the Canada US border.  The orange frame shows the general swath of the oilfields in Canada and reaching into the USA. We can see the bright lights of the Bakken in the bottom of the rectangle and the Canadian Oil Sands in the top of the rectangle. You can see the light emitted from the compressor stations and processing facilities make an interesting 'Milky Way' corridor. You can see the same effect in the Eagleford area below San Antonio on the map.

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A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 5 - 2013 And 2014

In a series of market manias, no one can ignore the rate that Bitcoin became a real deal, only to go quiet on it a few months later.

This is the fifth article in a series of modern day manias.  

Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000. 

Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007.

Part 3 can be found here. The Year 2011.

Part 4 can be found here. The Year 2011 Commodity Charts.


So when we talk about a mania, typically it can be represented by a chart with an increasing rate of acceleration, towards a church spire top. This top representing social interest quickly implodes and investors run for the exits. 

Of course these manias can by primary cycle manias that take years to run up and burst, or flash in the pan types that last a few months.

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A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 4 - 2011 Commodity Charts

The individual commodities each took their turn on a launch pad at Cape Canaveral it seemed. The sequence of lift offs and tops was truly remarkable. However, most of them topped and did a major retracement just as quickly. That is usually how commodity tops work out.

This is the fourth article in a series of modern day Manias.  This is a specific article about all the commodity tops in 2011.

Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000. 

Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007.

Part 3 can be found here. The Year 2011.

Starting with Wheat, the move to the 2011 highs was lightning fast. Within 2 months, Wheat was up 86% for a torrid pace of 40% per month!! For the entire move over 8 months Wheat rose 110%. Within another 8 months it had given half back.

 

Next up was $COPPER.

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A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 3 - 2011

I could have written a specific article on the price of oil going ballistic in 2007 and 2008, but I will try to correlate that 'oil' story with the 2014 fall in oil.  2011 will be remembered as the commodity top and that is what we will cover in this article. Many of the world's commodities topped in 2011, with the most obvious being Gold and Silver. 

This is the third article in a series of modern day Manias.  

Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000. 

Part 2 can be found here. The Year 2007.

For consistency, I'll work through the same charts we had in the previous articles. The commodity top in Silver happened in March. It was central to the actual top with a number of ballistic moves in commodities from 2010 into the spring of 2011. Notice how there were 3 peaks on this commodity index. The trend line snap was pretty important. Notice the change in the MACD and some trend lines under the purple SPURS would have been valuable. The breaking of purple trend lines were indicative of a potential top. . Once the Relative Strength (SPURS) started to trend down, the commodity top was complete.

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A Series On Market Manias Through The Charts From 2000 To 2015. Part 2 - 2007

This is the second article in a series of modern day Manias. Part 1 can be found here. The Year 2000.

2007 was a market top that will be remembered for a long time. It started with a market mania in the housing sector, created a mania in the banking sector and caused a series of events that fell like dominoes as they relentlessly tumbled one after the other.

Let's bring up the chart showing how the topping structure looked. Compared to the 2000 top, this market was remarkably different. The tops were still close to each other. The Russell 2000 ($RUT) made its top in July but the other three, the S&P 500 ($SPX), the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) all topped within a few weeks of each other. The Dow and the $SPX as well as the Wilshire 5000 ($WLSH) all had the high close on October 9th and an intraday high on the 11th that was higher. The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) both topped on October 31. However, in 2000, the Nasdaq pair both fell away quickly.  In this 2007 market top, all the markets rolled over together with relative unison which made the top much easier to spot. It was probably still difficult at the time. That rollover move is tight compared to the 2000 top where they had a lot of sideways movement in some indexes while the others were making church spires. All the markets dropped at least 50% so that is huge. That means an investor needs 100% to get back to where they started. Notice the amazing similarity of all the price patterns.

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