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AN EVENTUAL RETEST OF FIRST HALF LOWS STILL LOOKS LIKELY -- IN ORDER TO PREVENT THAT, OCTOBER LOWS HAVE TO HOLD

by John Murphy

S&P 500 IS RETESTING ITS OCTOBER LOW Given the size of the stock market decline since the start of October, and the fact that the nearly three year uptrend that started in early 2016 appears to have peaked, an eventual retest of early 2018 lows appears likely. That would mean an eventual retest of February/April lows on the S&P 500 ranging from 2532 to 2553  Read More

VIX Hits November High; Apparel Retailers, Railroads Crushed

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, November 20, 2018 It was another ugly day for U.S. equities as the February price support on our major indices draws closer and closer.  Volatility shot higher as panicked, impulsive selling once again gripped Wall Street.  Energy (XLE, -3.28%), consumer discretionary (XLY, -2.26%) and financials (XLF, -2.20%) were hit hardest, especially the  Read More

A Global Logistics Players Hits Resistance

by Arthur Hill

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global player in logistics and package delivery. The outlook for the global economy is surely dimming with the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) falling all year, the German DAX Index ($DAX) and French CAC Index ($CAC) hitting new lows, and the S&P 500 turning south over the last two months. Even though the stock has yet to hit a 52-week low, the long-term trend is  Read More

PMO Preludes to Bear Markets - New PMO SELL Signals on Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) seem to have a few unusual characteristics in the period before bear markets. I believe that the current PMO set-up on the SPX is dangerously close to mimicking those bear market preludes. I decided to do a historical study when I noticed all four DP Scoreboard indexes had PMO tops below the zero line after a very oversold reading. This  Read More

11/20 MWL Recap: "Index Analysis v. Indicator Analysis" with Erin - Chart Breakdowns!

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

Semiconductors Surge On Huge Down Day

by Greg Schnell

The Semiconductor stocks were trying to lead to the upside in Tuesday's big down day. That's a short term bullish sign. Six semi stocks were in the top 22 from the S&P 500.  Considering how low in the hole they were to start the day, that is a big improvement.  Looking at NVDA, it was down 55% off the highs, but came back and at the time of publishing was above yesterdays close  Read More

Plotting breadth indicators on Relative Rotation Graphs - Part I

by Julius de Kempenaer

In my contribution to last week's Chartwatchers newsletter, I mentioned my current experiment on using breadth indicators on a Relative Rotation Graph. In this article, I want to take a look at a few of these setups side by side and see if there is indeed a leading tendency for breadth to lead price on the RRG as it tends to do on regular charts as well. I remember  Read More

Infatuation with Morning Futures Fair Value

by Greg Morris

Infatuation: in·fat·u·a·tion Noun: infatuation; plural noun: infatuations An intense but short-lived passion or admiration for someone or something. I cannot begin to tell you how often I am asked about morning futures fair value to tell me if I'm going to invest that day based upon their proposed direction and/or level.  My response is always the  Read More

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Traps 5 Million Federal Workers

by Brian Livingston

The largest tax-deferred, employer-matched contribution program in the US is the Federal Thrift Savings Plan. Unfortunately, its participants suffer from having few funds to choose from. The good news is that this can be fixed. Gradually changing the portfolio just once a month easily improves your gain while keeping your losses minimal - even during severe market crashes.   My  Read More

Impulsive Selling Returns And VIX Spikes Amid Technology Assault; Futures Tanking

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, November 19, 2018 I'd like to say something good about yesterday's action on Wall Street, but I don't think there's anything to be said.  Impulsive selling returned with little in the way of a bid on technology stocks (XLK, -3.81%) as this highly-influential sector fell to its lowest level in over six months.  The  best performing  Read More

11/19 MWL Recap: Monday Setups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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Confidence Is Eroding Just When It's Needed

by Martin Pring

Indexes on the Brink Confidence Relationships Starting to Break Down Watch the Stock/Bond Ratio Indexes on the Brink More than once a week, I make sure to check several ratios that tell me whether investors and traders are getting more or less confident. These relationships, which we will get to later, tell us what market participants are actually doing with their money, as opposed to what they  Read More

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HEADLINE FROM OCTOBER 13: WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS ARE SENDING MORE SERIOUS WARNING SIGNS -- ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MARKET MAY HAVE COMPLETED ITS NINE-YEAR RUN

by John Murphy

CORRECTION: My message from last Wednesday showed negative readings on weekly and monthly stock charts, and referred back to an earlier message on that same topic. However, I incorrectly gave a date of May 13. The correct date of that earlier article is October 13, 2018. I also mentioned that Elliott Wave Analysis done at that time supported the  Read More

Viacom Makes a Move with Big Volume

by Arthur Hill

Viacom (VIAB) is part of the broadcasting-entertainment industry group, which is part of the Communication Services SPDR (XLC). The stock acted more like a defensive share in the first half of the year by underperforming from January to May. VIAB bottomed in June and outperformed the broader market over the last five months. On the price chart below, we can see VIA correcting after a big surge  Read More

Small Caps Need To Hold Onto This Price Support

by Tom Bowley

Special Event Join me and John Hopkins, President of EarningsBeats.com, after the bell today for a 4:30pm EST webinar.  I'll be discussing the stocks that I believe represent the best trading opportunities of Q4.  These stocks all posted better-than-expected quarterly revenues and EPS and significant accumulation appears to be taking place.  For more information, you can  Read More

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Volatility, Sentiment, Seasonality and Price - Oh My!

by Arthur Hill

Defining the Current Market Environment. Elliott Wave, Dow Theory and Counter-trend Moves. Yearend Seasonality is Bullish. Sentiment Reaches Bearish Extremes. Focus on the Price Chart! Making Adjustments As traders and investors, it is important to understand the current market environment and adjust our strategy accordingly. Are we in a low volatility environment with  Read More

Are These Commodities Ready To Surge 2018-11-17 CC

by Greg Schnell

In what could be described as a calming week for commodities, oil finally stopped falling. Gold and Copper bounced a little, and some of the industrial metals are holding up. Lithium and the rare earth metals are trying to rally. After a $20 move down in oil, crude finally stopped at the most logical place for support. The real question over the next few weeks is can crude oil continue to find  Read More

Indian Hotels and Hathway Cables look interesting on Charts

by Milan Vaishnav

The previous week has been very volatile for the NIFTY as the benchmark index remains in the middle of the 150-point turbulent zone of 10600-10750. Two stocks, The Indian Hotels Company Ltd., and Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd look interesting on the Charts. The Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (INDHOTEL.IN) The stock marked a high of 160.45 in early 2018 and, since then, has traded in a  Read More

You Must Master These Two Things To Trade Successfully

by Tom Bowley

Trading is difficult, emotional and can be quite lonely.  We have seen volatility ($VIX) shoot higher, rising from an 11.61 close on October 3rd to a high of 28.84 on October 11th.  Since then, we've remained above the key 16-17 support level that typically holds during bear markets.  I don't believe we're in a bear market, I'm just pointing out that the last two bear  Read More

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STOCK INDEXES STABILIZE BUT LOSE MORE GROUND -- DROP IN RETAILERS AND HOME IMPROVEMENT STOCKS MAKE CONSUMER CYCLICALS MARKET'S WEAKEST SECTOR

by John Murphy

DESPITE LATE REBOUND, STOCK INDEXES LOSE GROUND Despite a rebound on Thursday and Friday, all major U.S. stock indexes lost ground this week. But very little changed on their respective chart patterns. Chart 1 shows an upside reversal on Thursday keeping the Dow Industrials above its 200-day average. But it remains well below its early November peak and its 50-day  Read More

Taking the Temperature of the Stock Market

by Arthur Hill

The Momentum Factor iShares (MTUM) and the Minimum Volatility iShares (USMV) represent opposing sides of the market. High flying stocks can be found in the momentum ETF, while the more boring issues dominate the minimum volatility ETF. Using these two ETFs, chartists can quickly take the temperature of the stock market and adjust their strategy. The market is running hot and then risk appetite  Read More

Week Ahead: NIFTY Has Multiple Overhead Resistances to Deal With in This Short Week

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian Equity Markets spent the entire week on expected lines. The previous week was expected to be turbulent, and the zone of 10600-10750 was set to pose stiff resistance to the Markets. On these analyzed lines, the NIFTY continued to remain volatile all throughout the week. The benchmark Index finally ended the week posting a modest gain of 97 points (+0.92%). NIFTY faced stiff  Read More

You Really CAN Make Money in a Rough Market Environment

by John Hopkins

The quarter beginning 10-1-18 has been challenging for a lot of traders. The NASDAQ has lost almost 10% while the S&P has lost 6%, both well off the quarter's low. Volatility has reigned with the VIX at elevated levels for most of the quarter. It has been challenging for us at EarningsBeats as well, though you might not know it from our results even though, of the 29 trade alerts we issued  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Does SPY Have Bullish Reverse H&S? Gold Sentiment Is Looking Contrarian

by Carl Swenlin

A lot of people are seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing, and it is really not hard to spot. From Friday's close, it will take a rally of a little less than 3% for price to reach the neckline. Add another 4.5% and new, all-time highs will be made. Some indicators favoring a positive resolution are: (1) contracting volume across the head and right shoulder; (2) the OBV reverse  Read More

NEW! Introducing "Chart View" For Market And Industry Summary Pages

by Grayson Roze

The more charts, the better. That's my motto, especially this week. I'm happy to announce that our Market Summary and Industry Summary pages have recently received a major upgrade – "Chart View" is here!  We've expanded the functionality of these two important pages, making them even more useful resources to help you track and analyze the current markets. Market  Read More

Money Managers Report Lowest Exposure Since Early 2016

by Erin Swenlin

One of the sentiment indicators that I update MarketWatchers LIVE viewers on each Friday is the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure reading. A few things you should know about these guys. NAAIM's membership ranges from small regional firms to large national firms, including hedge fund managers, mutual fund companies and a variety of other firms that provide  Read More

11/16 MWL Recap: "What's Hot, What's Not" with Mary Ellen McGonagle - DP Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

The Reason Short-Term Rallies are Failing is Because Weekly Charts Look Even More Negative

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Wednesday, November 14th at 1:39pm ET. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show the last upleg of the S&P 500 uptrend that began in early 2016. And it shows that uptrend weakening. It shows the October price  Read More

Experimenting with breadth on Relative Rotation Graphs

by Julius de Kempenaer

Various breadth indicators are used to analyze the underlying strength or weakness of a broad market index like the S&P 500 index or NYSE. Over the years a number of different breadth indicators have been developed and/or used in their work by well known technical analysts. A few names that spring to mind here in the Stockcharts community are   Read More

ETF Guru Retires: Leaves Us with Six Key Lessons

by Gatis Roze

This is a salute to Ben Johnson, the departing editor of Morningstar's ETF Investor publication. Over the years, I've come to look forward to his pithy observations about the ETF marketplace. To use his own words in describing his replacement, Alex Bryan, he wrote "He's bright, articulate and capable of distilling concepts that are lofty and sometimes near unintelligible into insights that are  Read More

This Is Not Just Icing On The Cake

by Greg Schnell

Through this wide ranging volatile period, it has been harder to find great trades. When the market pulls back, the skittishness of the investing community soars. I have had two different stocks in nice set ups plunge with 20% drops in a day. The earnings reports are literally implosion documents if they miss the consensus view. Apple is a case in point. Small position size helps. At the  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Digesting the Breakdowns

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. Ranging after Breakdown. Other Bearish Developments. Volatility Heats Up. Momentum versus Low Volatility. Staples and Utes Hold Up. Healthcare and REITs Outperform. Big Bounces within even Bigger Downtrends. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList.   Ranging after Breakdown The S&P 500 was thrown off trend with a sharp decline in October.  Read More

History Supports Bullish Move But Earnings Last Night Could Dampen Bulls' Victory Thursday

by Tom Bowley

Reminder I post a blog article every morning that the stock market is open in a format similar to today's article.  If you haven't already subscribed (for FREE) and would like to, simply scroll to the bottom of this article and type your email address into the space provided and click on the green "Subscribe" button.  From this point forward, my blog article will be sent to the email  Read More

11/15 MWL Recap: Julius de Kempenaer "Experimenting with Breadth on RRG" - Are You Buying This?

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

Gold Finally Had A Day In The Sun $GDX $GLD

by Greg Schnell

Gold finally had a day in the sun. It feels almost remarkable. Much like when rainy days envelope a city for weeks, and then, the first day of sunshine feels so much better.  I love to trade around gold on the long side, which has been infrequent lately! But the charts say to wake up and smell the golden coffee, as it could be time to wake up in your portfolio. Yeah, really, I know, that  Read More

30% Gain From Here Over Next Year Possible? This Chart Says YES

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, November 14, 2018 In a rare twist, communication services (XLC, +0.49%) was the only sector to gain ground yesterday.  The group has underperformed the S&P 500 badly since its July relative high with Facebook's (FB) quarterly earnings report on July 25th after the close the primary culprit.  But, at least temporarily, the sector received a boost - an  Read More

Small cap stocks are leading the market lower.

by Julius de Kempenaer

There are many indexes available to monitor and analyze the stock market. The S&P500, together with Daddy "Dow" being among the more popular ones. But the S&P 500, although covering 500 stocks, is only looking at one segment of the total market. Only large-cap stocks. A broader perspective can be gained from looking at the S&P 1500 composite index for example. Still not  Read More

Double the Gain of the Morningstar Bucket Portfolio - part 4

by Brian Livingston

Lazy Portfolios such as Morningstar's generally ignore asset classes other than stocks, bonds, and REITs. Alternative assets, when combined with a Momentum Rule, give you diversification benefits that produce massive improvements in gains.   This is Part 4. Parts 1, 2, and 3 appeared on Nov. 6, 8, and  Read More

11/14 MWL Recap: Guest Bruce Fraser "Searching for the Next Leadership Stocks" - Agree or Disagree

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

DP Alert: Two More ST SELL Signals - Monthly PMO SELL Signals Likely

by Erin Swenlin

Before I get into the nitty gritty here, I want to relate a story of what literally (yes, literally) just happened to me about 10 minutes ago. I got a text from my 10-year old nephew, "Is there anyway I can check what is happening to the Nestle stock in the future?" Mind you, this has never happened, even remotely. Let's just say that my Dad and I are the only family members who talk about  Read More