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Latest Posts

Mondelez Takes Big Hit, But Remains in Bullish Triangle Pattern

by Tom Bowley

Mondelez International (MDLZ) had a rough week, tumbling over 5.5% after Kraft Heinz (KHC) made a bid for Unilever (UL).  That suggested to many investors that the likelihood of a MDLZ acquisition was significantly reduced and the stock was priced lower accordingly.  The technical pattern on MDLZ remains quite bullish, however, so I'd argue that last week's weakness is opening a door...  Read More

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Is The Dollar Getting Ready To Make A Big Move?

by Martin Pring

The Dollar Index -- primary trend The Dollar Index viewed from the short-term trend The euro The yen The Canadian dollar Emerging market currencies Expectations were high for the US Dollar ($USD) following the election and indeed, the currency did rally for a while. However, the trend for most of 2017 has been a downward one in terms of the majority of cross rates, and this...  Read More

75 Point Boxes On The $SPX

by Greg Schnell

The $SPX has had a nice ladder effect going on recently. Much like the origins of technical analysis found in the early days, the market tends to move forward in ranges. These areas have been quite obvious recently. The range been support levels appears to be about 75 points on the $SPX. Here is a copy of the chart I showed on The...  Read More

Swenlin Trading Oscillators Very Bearish

by Erin Heim

The market has been experiencing an almost vertical rally over the past few weeks, but it has cooled over the past two days. The steep rising trend pushed our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) into highly overbought territory. With...  Read More

Retail Stocks Remain Very Attractive And Here Are A Few To Consider

by Tom Bowley

About a month ago, I wrote a ChartWatchers article detailing the bullish historical tendencies of retailers during the months of February, March and April.  In particular, apparel retailers ($DJUSRA) have shown tremendous bullishness during the months of February, March and April.  In addition, the DJUSRA was approaching a key price support level.  As it turns out, that price...  Read More

Bonds. Shaken, Not Stirred.

by Bruce Fraser

It is time to circle back and update our studies of the US Treasury Bond market. On October 7, 2016, we did a Wyckoffian analysis of Treasury Bonds as they appeared to be at a critical juncture. Take a few minutes now and go back to that post ( click here for a link) and review this prior analysis. To...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook 18-Feb-2017 - Banks Lead Finance Sector as New Highs Surge

by Arthur Hill

----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 18-Feb) ----- Programming Note: The Art's Charts Chartlist has been updated with 30 annotated charts covering the industry group ETFs. The outline above is for  Read More

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Short-Term Indicators Overbought and Declining - Weekly Charts Reviewed

by Erin Heim

The rally has cooled somewhat. It's been full steam ahead this week until yesterday. Price on the SPX has closed higher both days, but with very little price change to accompany it. The DP Scoreboards only have three SELL signals left. I've been peeking at the monthly charts in the DecisionPoint LIVE Shared ChartList and the OEX is currently holding a BUY signal with the SPX less than a tenth...  Read More

Healthcare SPDR Turns Up, Biotechs and Pharmaceutical ETFS Show Improvement

by John Murphy

In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/SPX ratio (top of chart) appears to be bottoming. And while biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have improved, healthcare leadership is still coming from other...  Read More

Trading Stocks in a Stretched Market

by John Hopkins

I made my case to EarningsBeats members this past Wednesday just before we started to see a bit of selling. Here are the highlights: 1-The VIX is up by almost 9% today as it tests its 50 day moving average from the downside even though the market is higher. This is troubling to me as I am seeing fear picking up in spite of today's buying. 2-All of the major indexes are extremely overbought. The...  Read More

Rethinking Support and Resistance for Indexes and ETFs

by Arthur Hill

Just like potato salad in the fridge, support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 have a shelf life and become stale over time. The value of the S&P 500 is based on the price of its individual component stocks. Support and resistance levels for the index loose their importance over time because component stocks and weightings change on a regular basis. The further the...  Read More

After 17 years, A Financial Journalist Discloses His "Top Investing Lesson"

by Gatis Roze

After seventeen years writing an investment column for USA Today, Matt Krantz is joining a money management firm and leaving us with the top lesson he's learned in all those years.   Coincidentally and nearly simultaneously, I ran into two former students at a local Starbucks who had attended my class a few years ago.  They reminded me of three stocks we had in our class portfolio  Read More

There Are Mixed Signals In Commodities

by Greg Schnell

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett With the current fire lit under the Equities markets and no fire truck in sight, it seems that everyone is unabashedly bullish. Various breadth indicators including the Net New Highs, the Advance Decline lines, the McClellan Summation Indexes, the Volume Summation...  Read More

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HEALTHCARE SPDR TURNS UP -- HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND MEDICAL DEVICE ETFS HIT NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy

HEALTH CARE SPDR TURNS UP... In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/SPX ratio (top of chart) appears to be bottoming. And while biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have improved, healthcare...  Read More

Cypress Semi (CY) Tries To Join The Party

by Greg Schnell

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) rallied 2 weeks ago to new 52 week highs. It is still consolidating the breakout but looks well positioned. The volume last week was very low on a pullback compared to the volume on the breakout. That is a really nice bullish sign. This semiconductor stock also kicks out a yield of 3.44% which is a nice value for tech stocks. Some of the  Read More

Will Homebuilders Finally Make Their Breakout?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, February 16, 2017 U.S. indices finished in bifurcated fashion on Thursday as the Dow Jones logged gains, the S&P 500 finished flat and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both finished with minor losses.  We could see some additional weakness in coming days based on very overbought conditions and historical bearishness during the upcoming week in...  Read More

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Market Cools Ahead of Options Expiration

by Erin Heim

After a rally that has traveled vertically for over a week, it was finally time for the market to take a breather. I suspect we will see more of the same tomorrow given it is options expiration. Typically, you'll see very high volume with little price movement. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain very bullish, with only a few Long-Term PMO SELL signals. A quick glance at the monthly charts...  Read More

SRCL Wastes No Time Breaking To Six Month Highs

by Tom Bowley

Stericycle (SRCL) has been under rather intense selling pressure over the past 16 months, losing half its market cap.  The waste management company disappointed Wall Street on several occasions and we've seen major gap downs on heavy volume three times over those 16 months.  The stock seems to have put in at least a near-term bottom with its latest quarterly earnings, which were...  Read More

Is The Market Topping? Relative Sector Performance Says NO WAY!

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, February 15, 2017 Healthcare (XLV, +1.08%) resumed its leadership role but relative performance in this sector has been quite weak since the summer.  Below is a chart that shows a ratio of the XLV to the S&P 500.  If you've been buying and holding this sector, you've experienced underperformance and that's not unusual during bull...  Read More

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Housing and Retail Stocks Power the Consumer Discretionary Sector

by Arthur Hill

.... Small-caps Join the New High Parade .... Housing and Retail Come to Life .... Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary Sector Breaks Out .... Five Housing Stocks to Watch (DHI, FBHS, KBH, SKY, TOL) .... Commercial Metals Resumes Bigger Uptrend .... United Airlines Challenges Flag Resistance  .... Cornerstone OnDemand Consolidates Above 200-day EMA .... Itron Ends Correction with Breakout...  Read More

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Trump Rally Reboot Forms a Steep Rising Trend Channel

by Erin Heim

The Trump Rally Reboot or as I am calling it, TR2. It's uncertain when the shine will tarnish for the markets and investors. For now, there are no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, and none imminent that I've observed either. The PMOs are rising strongly as TR2 carries stock prices along on a very steep rising trend channel. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update  Read More

Canadian Energy Stocks Try To Bounce

by Greg Schnell

The energy sector has had a rough ride since December 8th. The decline in the energy stocks has been going on for two months. Even some of the best performers last year are down around 20-25%. On the Commodities Countdown webinar 2017-02-09, I discussed how to monitor stocks  Read More

WBA Turns Up after Deep Correction

by Arthur Hill

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has traded quite choppy over the last 12 months, but I think the bigger trend is up and the recent wedge breakout is bullish. First, notice that WBA broke above a major resistance zone with the November-December surge. This move forged a 52-week high and set the bullish tone for the long-term uptrend. Second, note that the 200-day slope turned positive in late...  Read More

These Are Two Very Bullish Components Of The NASDAQ 100

by Tom Bowley

I'll return tomorrow morning with my regular Trading Places article with all the normal features.  Today I simply want to point out two component stocks in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) that look very bullish to me.  The first is Costco (COST).  Basing patterns that finally breakout can lead to months or years of solid gains so I'm looking for COST to outperform the NDX in the  Read More

New Chart Spotlight Added to DecisionPoint LIVE Webinars

by Erin Heim

The DecisionPoint LIVE webinars on Wednesday and Fridays at 7:00pm EST are news programs. In just 30 minutes, I go over the current DecisionPoint Scoreboards, cover daily/weekly/monthly charts of major large- and small-cap indexes, review indicators and finish with analysis of the "Big Four" -- Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds. I've found  Read More

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Higher Prices - Short-Term Indicators Getting Overbought

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. We will likely not see any changes unless and until this rally breaks down; which right now, the market doesn't seem interested in doing. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the  Read More

Bank Of America (BAC) Ends Consolidation Pattern With A Big Bull Push - SCTR

by Greg Schnell

Bank of America (BAC) has been consolidating recently. Today that consolidation ended as BAC made a big bull push out of the consolidation pattern. With a strong SCTR, this was on the radar anyway. Click on this link to understand more about what the SCTR...  Read More

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BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE ON YELLEN TESTIMONY -- THAT HELPS FINANCIALS AND HURTS UTILITIES

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE... Previous messages have described Treasury bond yields as consolidating within a major uptrend since mid-December . Today's jump in yields supports that view. In testimomy before Congress today, Janet Yellen warned about the danger of the Fed falling behind the inflation curve. That more hawkish statement pushed bond yields sharply higher (and bond prices...  Read More

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Webinar Recording - Bonds Plunge and Yields Surge - Banks Benefit - Utilities, REITs and Gold Suffer - IJR Holds Breakout - Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

TLT Forms Bearish Continuation Pattern There is not much change in the broad market environment. The long-term trends are up, but SPY and QQQ are looking extended and ripe for a rest. IJR already got its rest and broke out on Friday to end its corrective period. This pits large-caps (SPY and QQQ) against small-caps (IJR). Mid-caps are somewhere in the middle because MDY hit 52-week highs over  Read More

February Has Sent This Stock Higher 95% Of The Time Over The Last Two Decades

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, February 13, 2017 Recent leadership from financials (XLF, +1.14%) and industrials (XLI, +1.00%) appears to be resuming as these two groups led the benchmark S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs on Monday.  The last week has been very strong for U.S. equities and it's very bullish to watch industrials (+2.62% over the past week), consumer  Read More

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Rally Continues - New PMO BUY Signal for the Dollar - New BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards

by Erin Heim

Last Friday, the S&P 500 generated a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. With the continuation of the rally, it should be no surprise to see the S&P 100 and Dow Industrials follow suit with their own PMO BUY signals. I've included their daily charts under the DP Scoreboards for your review. Long-Term PMOs remain mostly negative. We will not have those signals until the...  Read More

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Market Extends Gains As Breadth Surprisingly Improves

by Martin Pring

More stocks trading above their 150-day MA's Last week I pointed out that many indicators were overstretched, thereby indicating the probability of a correction. I also stated that during a bull market, surprises typically develop on the upside. Consequently, if the market was able to shrug off its overbought status and trigger higher prices that overstretched condition would...  Read More

0100111000100000

by Greg Morris

There are 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary and those who do not.  Yes, the title is binary for 20,000.  I knew the title of this article would get your attention.  The financial media is possessed with round numbers more than I can remember.   Back in the 70s, the Dow Industrials bounced off (resistance) of 1000 many times and it was 1983  Read More

Celgene Stalls within Trend - What's Next?

by Arthur Hill

Celgene (CELG) has not made much headway the last twelve months, but the overall trend is up and the current consolidation looks like a bullish continuation pattern. Taking a step back, notice that CELG doubled from the April 2014 low to the July 2015 high (~70 to ~140). The stock then retraced around 61.18% of this advance with a 30+ percent decline into January 2016. Even though a 30+...  Read More

Aerospace Strength Sends Industrials To All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, February 10, 2017 Materials (XLB, +0.91%) and industrials (XLI, +0.79%) led yet another rally in U.S. equities on Friday as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 all established new all-time closing highs.  The small cap Russell 2000 index ($RUT) performed best on Friday, and had a final thrust higher at the very end  Read More

Sector rotation from Energy to Utilities, market in transition

by Julius de Kempenaer

Summary NO sectors inside the lagging quadrant and only one in leading Sector rotation suggests market in transition Financials continue to loose ground vs Healthcare Technology picking up against Materials Sector rotation from Energy to Utilities starting to shape up   Quick scan A first look at the Relative Rotation Graph above triggers two interesting observations. First of all...  Read More

What Happened to the Correction?

by Carl Swenlin

Just before Christmas I wrote an article saying I was expecting a correction or consolidation because our primary intermediate-term indicators had all topped. On the chart below we can see the annotations (down arrows) I made at the time, and we can see what actually happened. There was a small correction into the end of the year, then price rebounded and consolidated for about three weeks --  Read More

Costco Finally Breaks Out Above Its 15 Month Consolidation Range

by Tom Bowley

After long basing periods, breakouts can be very significant technical events that lead to powerful gains.  Those invested in or trading Costco (COST) are hoping last week's breakout signals a nice advance in the months ahead.  Three months ago, COST bulls successfully defended key price support and the rally that ensued finally broke major price resistance.  Check out the...  Read More

Avoidance Strategy

by Bruce Fraser

The Wyckoffian mission is to trade and invest in the best stocks in the leading Industry Groups. We have been studying examples of leadership characteristics using Wyckoff Analysis in combination with Relative Strength. Recall that our workflow is to drill down from Sector to Industry Group to Stock. Always seeking the strongest stocks in the strongest groups. It is also a worthwhile exercise  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Consumer Discretionary, Housing and Retail Come Alive - Small-cap Breakout - Banks Key Off 10-yr Yield - Copper and Alum Lead Metals

by Arthur Hill

----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 11-Feb) ----- Banks, Small-caps and the 10-yr Yield Stocks extended their uptrends with the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and Nasdaq...  Read More