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Latest Posts

Distribution Review

by Bruce Fraser

It has been a long time since we have explored the intricacies of the Wyckoff Distribution structure. But since 2018 has opened with a Bang, by going straight up in January and then early February's retracement of the prior month's advance, it is time to review. The year 2018 may well be defined by 'Two-Way Markets' with abrupt upward and downward swings that will require deft handling to trade  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Promising Flag Formation

by Carl Swenlin

Nothing has happened this week to support my belief that we are in a bear market. If the market were in that much trouble, it seems to me that this week it should have headed lower. Instead, it has consolidated and formed a bullish flag formation. If the flag fulfills the technical expectation, price will move up and challenge the all-time highs set in January. If I'm right about the bear  Read More

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BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION -- THAT'S GIVING A BOOST TO BOND PROXIES LIKE UTILITIES, REITS, AND TELECOM

by John Murphy

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD IS WEAKENING The uptrend in bond yields is starting to weaken. The daily bar in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling 5 basis points to 2.87%. More importantly, its 14-day RSI line overlaid over the price bars is falling to the lowest level since early January after reaching overbought territory over 70 at the start of  Read More

2/23 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Trading Island Reversals - Mailbag - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Free Style Tips: How I Organize My Custom ChartStyles!

by Grayson Roze

Well, I did it again. Yesterday morning, I joined Tom Bowley and Erin Swenlin on  MarketWatchers LIVE as part of the weekly "Everything StockCharts" segment, which covers important tips, tricks and other information that all StockCharts users can benefit from. My appearance was a demonstration in  Read More

Higher Treasury Yields Crushing Last Year's Darling - Home Construction

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, February 22, 2018 U.S. indices continued to tread water on Thursday, with mixed action among our major indices and sectors.  The Dow Jones posted a triple digit gain (165 points), but the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indices both fell fractionally.  Volatility ($VIX) subsided a bit with the VIX falling roughly 6.5% back to 18.72.  While the  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Something for Everyone

by Arthur Hill

Bulls, Bears and Fishermen. Long-term Picture Still Bullish. Rising SMAs for the S&P 500. A Short-term Bullish Pattern for SPY. Small-caps Show some Short-term RS. Lots of Little Consolidations. Oil Extends Bounce off Support. Energy Stocks are Not Impressed. Gold Miners Not Impressed Either. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Something for Everyone You can see  Read More

SPX Sets Up Shallow Down-trend Channel: Heading Towards Retest of Recent Lows?

by Tushar Chande

The S&P 500 Index has set up a shallow down-trend channel, possibly setting up a retest of the recent lows.  Three days in a row, the market has closed below the open, and the past four days show relatively long upper shadows on candlestick charts denoting overhead resistance.  Besides, the $VIX index remains above 17, and the market thus remains unsettled, primarily due to the  Read More

Why So Down on Gold?

by Erin Swenlin

I was asked during the MarketWatchers LIVE program today about my thoughts regarding Gold v. Dollar and particularly, why I'm bearish on Gold right now. I'll explain. The chart for Gold is bearish on many counts. First there is the PMO with its "bear kiss" of the signal line and continued decline. The chart pattern that is forming is a bearish double-top. The pattern will be confirmed when  Read More

2/22 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - ChartStyle Demonstration - Technical Scans - Sector Rotation

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Commodities Tighten The Noose 2018-02-22 Video

by Greg Schnell

US Dollar goes sideways for 5 weeks Oil hovers near the 50 DMA Natural Gas holds $2.60 Gold pulls back Three stocks make up 50% of the S&P 500 bounce Video link inside The big news on the US Dollar continues to be no news. Rather than breaking support and plummeting, the US Dollar continues to trade sideways for 6 weeks after breaking support. The phrase 'hurry up and wait' comes to  Read More

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SystemTrader - In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Results for Two Momentum Systems - Measuring Performance and Drawdowns

by Arthur Hill

Revisiting Two Momentum Systems from 2017. A Simple Momentum Rotation System. Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword. A Trend-Momentum System with a Profit Target. Successful and Unsuccessful Trades. In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Performance. Drawdowns are Unavoidable. Conclusions and Takeaways. Consulting, Software and Data. Revisiting Two Momentum Systems I introduced several  Read More

FOMC Minutes Spook Traders, Equities Tumble In Final Two Hours

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, February 21, 2018 Well, the U.S. stock market was humming right along..until the FOMC minutes were released at 2pm EST.  Take a look at this intraday chart on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and I think you'll fairly quickly realize that something happened just after 2pm: I don't believe interest rate fears are spooking traders.  I think it's potential  Read More

DP Alert - ST Indicators Suggest Pullback

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX switched back to a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which triggered the signal (the chart is below the scoreboards for your review). The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the  Read More

2/21 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Guest, Greg Schnell - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

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Emerging From The Correction The Best And Worst Looking Sectors

by Martin Pring

General market thoughts Sectors under pressure Stronger looking sectors General market thoughts My thoughts on the recent correction is that we have likely seen the low, that more ranging action is likely, probably involving a test of that low, but that eventually US equities will see new bull market highs. Two points come to mind. First, everyone and his dog has come to the  Read More

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STRONG TECH SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET -- FINANCIALS, CYCLICALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE ALSO LEADING

by John Murphy

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET My last sentence from yesterday's message was that the stock market was unlikely to suffer any serious short-term damage as long as technology stocks kept rising. That's because technology is such a big part of the stock market. And they're rising again today. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Technology Sector SPDR  Read More

Regional Bank ETF Rises to the Top

by Arthur Hill

Even though I am currently in the "correction" camp for the broader market, there are clearly pockets of strength in some key groups. The Software iShares (IGV), Cyber Security ETF (HACK), Internet ETF (FDN) and Networking iShares (IGN) are leading the technology rebound and all are close to new highs. In addition, the Bank SPDR (KBE) and Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) are up over 1% so far today and  Read More

Walmart Results Take A Big Bite Out Of Dow Jones, Ends Winning Streak

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, February 20, 2018 Selling returned to Wall Street as its six day winning streak came to an end.  The Dow Jones was easily the biggest loser as Walmart, Inc (WMT) disappointed traders with its latest quarterly earnings report and had its worst trading day in many years, dropping more than 10%.  Here's a quick look at WMT's chart: While Tuesday's selling was  Read More

Palo Alto Networks Closes On A New High

by Greg Schnell

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has been climbing nicely off a huge gap down on earnings in late February 2017. Unfortunately for the investor it has been a round trip back to the beginning. On Tuesday's weak overall tape where the Dow was down 250, PANW pushed up to close at a new high. That's bullish.  This year, PANW will be reporting earnings on Monday, February 26th  Read More

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SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD THE NASDAQ AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR HIGHER TODAY -- CHIP LEADERS INCLUDE APPLIED MATERIALS, KLA-TENCOR, AND LAM RESEARCH

by John Murphy

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES HAVE A STRONG DAY Semiconductor stocks are the strongest part of the market today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) trading more than 2% higher today and moving further above its 50-day moving average. The SOXX has also risen above its 20-day moving average (green line). The SOXX/SPX relative strength ratio  Read More

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Never Short a Dull Market or Go Long a Volatile One

by Arthur Hill

Go Long a Volatile Market? Setting Correction Targets for S&P 500. Leaders and Laggards During the Rebound. Scanning for Percent from High. Semis, Housing and Transports Lag. "Never short a dull market" is an old Wall Street saying. Even though we cannot build a strategy on a saying, there is usually some truth to be found. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, was quite dull  Read More

Traders Turn Defensive As Key Fibonacci Retracement Level Reached - Bearish

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, February 16, 2018 On the surface, Friday's action didn't seem all that bad.  While there was bifurcated action, three of our four major indices did finish in positive territory.  The aggressive small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the advance.  Only the NASDAQ finished in negative territory.  The benchmark S&P 500 only gained a point, but it did  Read More

The Law of Cause and Effect in Action

by Bruce Fraser

The Law of Cause and Effect is a cornerstone principle of the Wyckoff Method. Cause building on the chart precedes the Effect of a Markup or a Markdown. Wyckoffians meticulously study trading ranges on the charts for Accumulation or Distribution characteristics. Analysis of Phases (Phases A thru E) track the progression of the activities of the Composite Operator (C.O.) in their operations. In  Read More

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 5

by Greg Morris

The significant components of my Weight of the Evidence are Price Measures and Breadth Measures.  All of my Price Measures use the Nasdaq Composite Index which I have written about many times.  If using the same price, then the difference between most price indicators is to offer varying time periods; short, medium, and long.  Breadth on the other hand, can offer many different  Read More

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Some Equity Markets Showing Signs Of Long-term Vulnerability

by Martin Pring

Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows European equities are facing a big challenge Shanghai starting to look sick Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows Last week I suggested that the S&P had reached a resistance zone following its bounce from the early February panic low. You can see this from Chart 1. That led me to the conclusion that a test of those lows was a good  Read More

Recent Pullback in Commodities Is Likely Tied to Stock Correction

by John Murphy

My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled area). During February, however, commodity prices have sold off enough to call that upside breakout  Read More

A Model For S&P 500 Bottoms (Are We There Yet?)

by Tushar Chande

Here I explore recent key lows and bottoming patterns in the S&P 500 in order to understand how they may apply to the current market decline. Naturally, the past may give us clues, but there is always uncertainty about how the bottom will form this time.  For obvious reasons, I will ignore "V" bottoms, that often form during up-trends, since they require no further elaboration.    Read More

Big Scores Made Possible through Extreme Patience

by John Hopkins

I'm sure most traders get tired of being told to be patient when the market or a specific stock is climbing day after day. Missing out on nice rallies can be extremely frustrating. But if there ever was a time when patience paid off big time it was over the past few weeks. Before I share the results of some recent trade results with you I want to point out our formula at Earnings Beats, because  Read More

Natural Gas In February - Yes Really

by Greg Schnell

Natural Gas has been testing the $2.60 level for two weeks now. I have placed arrows around the centre of the first quarter in each of the last six years. By watching Natural Gas closely right now, there can be a great 4-6 week trading opportunity that is not correlated to the equity market indexes.  Zooming in on the daily, Natural Gas is testing the lows. I have included the Commodity  Read More

History And Fibonacci Say We Topped On Friday

by Tom Bowley

Fear ramped up with the early February selling and a capitulatory bottom (at least short-term) printed.  The Volatility Index ($VIX) doesn't hit the 40-50 zone often and, when it does, it typically coincides with a panicked selloff and bottom.  The last time we saw panicked selling (before the past few weeks) was in August 2015.  Let's take a trip down memory lane: The drop was a  Read More

Where Did All Those New Lows Come From?

by Arthur Hill

Stocks rebounded this week as the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index ($SPXEW) recovered most of the losses from the previous week. On a closing basis, the index fell around 10% in nine days and then recovered around half of this loss with a 5.4% gain the last six days   What a ride! Despite the strong recovery, the 10% decline did some technical damage and I was surprised by the  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Rally Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but the shooting star is a fairly reliable sign of a short-term top. Another troublesome issue is the OBV reverse  Read More

2/16 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Bull/Bear Market Rules - Mailbag - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Bull or Bear Market Rules?

by Erin Swenlin

Today on MarketWatchers LIVE, I did a workshop on bull and bear market rules. You'll hear many technicians discuss "bull market rules apply" or vice versa. The question is pertinent and timely right now. The jury is still out on whether we are about to enter a bear market phase but that doesn't mean that you don't want to think about 'bear market rules'. We are currently in a bull market. Based  Read More

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RECENT PULLBACK IN COMMODITIES IS LIKELY TIED TO STOCK CORRECTION -- COPPER AND OIL ARE STILL IN UPTRENDS

by John Murphy

COMMODITY PULLBACK IS TIED TO STOCKS My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled area). During February, however  Read More

Two Icons Reveal the Same Secret to Success

by Gatis Roze

Steve Jobs famously challenged everyone when he said, "We're here to put a dent in the universe.  Otherwise, why else be here?" I was fortunate recently to spend a couple of days in Napa Valley at the DENT 2018 conference. There's nothing like spending quality time with lots of exceptional people to get oneself re-energized and refocused  Read More

VeriSign (VRSN) Breaks Out To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

VeriSign (VRSN) is showing signs of a powerful breakout. The SCTR ranking is surging above 75. The Relative strength is making new 2-month highs and not far from its all-time highs. The price is breaking out shortly after the big pullback in the overall market suggesting more strength. There is lots to like about the chart. If it fails to hold the breakout, I'd let it go. We released  Read More

Gold Tries To Breakout 2018-02-15 Video

by Greg Schnell

Gold is trying to breakout again. We have seen this movie multiple times. The big question is the US Dollar.  The five year picture for Gold is even more interesting. What makes the gold trade more compelling is the breakout in the Yen. So that looks pretty good. More in just a little bit lower on this article. I will be on MarketWatchers Live on Wednesday February 21st to cover  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Rubber Band Rebound

by Arthur Hill

Rubber Band Rebound. A Bearish Breadth Thrust. High-Low Percent Indicators Weaken. %Above Indicators Remain Bullish. Weight of the Evidence. SPX Clears 50-day as VIX Falls. Small-caps Take the Internal Lead. Scan Code for Top ROC. Tech-Related Industry Groups Lead. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Rubber Band Rebound Stocks rebounded sharply this week with the S&P  Read More