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Latest Posts

Commodity Chemicals Break Out Again, Look Very Bullish

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, February 22, 2017 Utilities (XLU, +0.42%) showed relative strength again on Wednesday, leading the charge on an otherwise bifurcated kinda day.  The Dow Jones was able to finish the session with a gain, but the benchmark S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were all noticeably weaker, especially the latter as small caps lagged with a 0.46%...  Read More

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Another Pause - Possible Head & Shoulders on UUP

by Erin Heim

The rally paused today as price remained mostly unchanged on most of the indexes. The DP Scoreboards remain heavily bullish and if you take a quick peek at the monthly charts, you'll note that the SPX and OEX currently have positive crossovers on the PMOs. The Dollar seems to be setting up a bearish head and shoulders pattern that I'll review in the section on the Dollar below. The...Read More

The Noose Tightness as T-Bond ETF Prepares for Next Move

by Arthur Hill

The 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) is consolidating within a long-term downtrend and this favors a bearish resolution to the current pattern. TLT fell sharply from July to November and broke through its 40-week EMA. The ETF is currently consolidating below the falling EMA and a consolidation within a downtrend is a bearish continuation pattern. The blue trend lines mark a triangle formation and...  Read More

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HOMEBUILDERS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- USING RATIO ANALYSIS TO CHOOSE THE STRONGEST HOUSING ETF

by John Murphy

U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW HIGHS... Add housing stocks to parts of the stock market that still offer value and are attracting new money. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) climbing today to the highest level in nearly a decade. That's following a jump in home sales to a ten-year high. The ITB/SPX ratio (solid area) has...  Read More

Warning Signs Beginning To Emerge

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, February 21, 2017 Our major indices saw another solid day of gains with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 all breaking out to all-time highs once again.  All nine sectors advanced and small caps led on a relative basis.  But that's about where the positive "beneath the surface" signals ended.  I've detailed...  Read More

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Short-Term Climactic Readings Return - New ITTM BUY Signal for the Dollar

by Erin Heim

The Trump Rally Reboot is not over yet. Price may've paused on Thursday and Friday, but today it enjoyed the ride higher. The Dollar rallied and in the process pushed the 20-EMA above the 50-EMA to trigger an IT Trend Model BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain comfortably bullish in all time frames with the exception of the Long-Term PMO SELL signals on all but the Dow. We...  Read More

Forestry Stocks Surge As Sector Rotation Gets Active

by Greg Schnell

I have posted my Canadian Technician Market Review for the Canadian market. You can click the play button to start the video or use the link below this to open a new browser window. The Canadian Technician Live with Greg Schnell 2017-02-21 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Here...  Read More

Weyerhaeuser (WY) Pushes Through The Forest Canopy

by Greg Schnell

Every week on the Commodities Countdown recording, we look at lumber prices. For the last week $LUMBER has pushed up and the lumber stocks are all on a big broad push. Weyerhaeuser (WY) is pushing through the previous highs or the forest canopy if you will. One thing supporting is the huge volume as the stock is breaking out.  You can see it clearly on the zoom...  Read More

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Oil and Energy-related ETFs Look Poised to End Corrections

by Arthur Hill

.... Oil Bounces within Corrective Pattern .... Measuring the Correlation between Oil and Energy ETF .... XLE, XES and XOP Correct Along with Oil .... Focus on Gold for Precious Metals ETFs .... Watching the Wedge and Fib Retracement in Gold .... 14 Bullish Stock Charts ....  Oil Bounces within Corrective Pattern I will start off today with oil because Dollar futures are down this morning...  Read More

Crude Oil Surges This Morning, Could Provide Big Lift To Energy Sector

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, February 17, 2017 Consumer staples (XLP, +0.50%) led the market action on Friday as personal products ($DJUSCM) jumped 3.39%.  Brewers ($DJUSDB) continued their recent surge and now appear to have clearly broken their downtrend that began in October.  Take a look: The trendline break is definitely a bullish technical development while the MACD...  Read More

The Reign of Error

by Greg Morris

In 1987 a book was written, entitled " The Great Depression of 1990," by Dr. Ravi Batra, an SMU professor of economics.  Sadly, I bought and read that book back then.  Batra was claimed as one of the...  Read More

SPY: Price Is Stretched

by Carl Swenlin

While the 200EMA (exponential moving average) smooths daily prices over a long period of time and shows us the trend within that time frame, it also acts as a moving base line of price. As we watch daily prices depart from the 200EMA, we can get a sense of how extended they are. For example, in December SPY was +8% above its 200EMA. Then a six-week period of consolidation followed, during which...  Read More

Mondelez Takes Big Hit, But Remains in Bullish Triangle Pattern

by Tom Bowley

Mondelez International (MDLZ) had a rough week, tumbling over 5.5% after Kraft Heinz (KHC) made a bid for Unilever (UL).  That suggested to many investors that the likelihood of a MDLZ acquisition was significantly reduced and the stock was priced lower accordingly.  The technical pattern on MDLZ remains quite bullish, however, so I'd argue that last week's weakness is opening a door...  Read More

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Is The Dollar Getting Ready To Make A Big Move?

by Martin Pring

The Dollar Index -- primary trend The Dollar Index viewed from the short-term trend The euro The yen The Canadian dollar Emerging market currencies Expectations were high for the US Dollar ($USD) following the election and indeed, the currency did rally for a while. However, the trend for most of 2017 has been a downward one in terms of the majority of cross rates, and this...  Read More

75 Point Boxes On The $SPX

by Greg Schnell

The $SPX has had a nice ladder effect going on recently. Much like the origins of technical analysis found in the early days, the market tends to move forward in ranges. These areas have been quite obvious recently. The range been support levels appears to be about 75 points on the $SPX. Here is a copy of the chart I showed on The...  Read More

Swenlin Trading Oscillators Very Bearish

by Erin Heim

The market has been experiencing an almost vertical rally over the past few weeks, but it has cooled over the past two days. The steep rising trend pushed our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) into highly overbought territory. With...  Read More

Retail Stocks Remain Very Attractive And Here Are A Few To Consider

by Tom Bowley

About a month ago, I wrote a ChartWatchers article detailing the bullish historical tendencies of retailers during the months of February, March and April.  In particular, apparel retailers ($DJUSRA) have shown tremendous bullishness during the months of February, March and April.  In addition, the DJUSRA was approaching a key price support level.  As it turns out, that price...  Read More

Bonds. Shaken, Not Stirred.

by Bruce Fraser

It is time to circle back and update our studies of the US Treasury Bond market. On October 7, 2016, we did a Wyckoffian analysis of Treasury Bonds as they appeared to be at a critical juncture. Take a few minutes now and go back to that post ( click here for a link) and review this prior analysis. To...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook 18-Feb-2017 - Banks Lead Finance Sector as New Highs Surge

by Arthur Hill

----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 18-Feb) ----- Programming Note: The Art's Charts Chartlist has been updated with 30 annotated charts covering the industry group ETFs. The outline above is for  Read More

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Short-Term Indicators Overbought and Declining - Weekly Charts Reviewed

by Erin Heim

The rally has cooled somewhat. It's been full steam ahead this week until yesterday. Price on the SPX has closed higher both days, but with very little price change to accompany it. The DP Scoreboards only have three SELL signals left. I've been peeking at the monthly charts in the DecisionPoint LIVE Shared ChartList and the OEX is currently holding a BUY signal with the SPX less than a tenth...  Read More

Healthcare SPDR Turns Up, Biotechs and Pharmaceutical ETFS Show Improvement

by John Murphy

In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/SPX ratio (top of chart) appears to be bottoming. And while biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have improved, healthcare leadership is still coming from other...  Read More

Trading Stocks in a Stretched Market

by John Hopkins

I made my case to EarningsBeats members this past Wednesday just before we started to see a bit of selling. Here are the highlights: 1-The VIX is up by almost 9% today as it tests its 50 day moving average from the downside even though the market is higher. This is troubling to me as I am seeing fear picking up in spite of today's buying. 2-All of the major indexes are extremely overbought. The...  Read More

Rethinking Support and Resistance for Indexes and ETFs

by Arthur Hill

Just like potato salad in the fridge, support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 have a shelf life and become stale over time. The value of the S&P 500 is based on the price of its individual component stocks. Support and resistance levels for the index loose their importance over time because component stocks and weightings change on a regular basis. The further the...  Read More

After 17 years, A Financial Journalist Discloses His "Top Investing Lesson"

by Gatis Roze

After seventeen years writing an investment column for USA Today, Matt Krantz is joining a money management firm and leaving us with the top lesson he's learned in all those years.   Coincidentally and nearly simultaneously, I ran into two former students at a local Starbucks who had attended my class a few years ago.  They reminded me of three stocks we had in our class portfolio  Read More

There Are Mixed Signals In Commodities

by Greg Schnell

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett With the current fire lit under the Equities markets and no fire truck in sight, it seems that everyone is unabashedly bullish. Various breadth indicators including the Net New Highs, the Advance Decline lines, the McClellan Summation Indexes, the Volume Summation...  Read More

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HEALTHCARE SPDR TURNS UP -- HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND MEDICAL DEVICE ETFS HIT NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy

HEALTH CARE SPDR TURNS UP... In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/SPX ratio (top of chart) appears to be bottoming. And while biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have improved, healthcare...  Read More

Cypress Semi (CY) Tries To Join The Party

by Greg Schnell

Cypress Semiconductor (CY) rallied 2 weeks ago to new 52 week highs. It is still consolidating the breakout but looks well positioned. The volume last week was very low on a pullback compared to the volume on the breakout. That is a really nice bullish sign. This semiconductor stock also kicks out a yield of 3.44% which is a nice value for tech stocks. Some of the  Read More

Will Homebuilders Finally Make Their Breakout?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, February 16, 2017 U.S. indices finished in bifurcated fashion on Thursday as the Dow Jones logged gains, the S&P 500 finished flat and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both finished with minor losses.  We could see some additional weakness in coming days based on very overbought conditions and historical bearishness during the upcoming week in...  Read More

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Market Cools Ahead of Options Expiration

by Erin Heim

After a rally that has traveled vertically for over a week, it was finally time for the market to take a breather. I suspect we will see more of the same tomorrow given it is options expiration. Typically, you'll see very high volume with little price movement. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain very bullish, with only a few Long-Term PMO SELL signals. A quick glance at the monthly charts...  Read More

SRCL Wastes No Time Breaking To Six Month Highs

by Tom Bowley

Stericycle (SRCL) has been under rather intense selling pressure over the past 16 months, losing half its market cap.  The waste management company disappointed Wall Street on several occasions and we've seen major gap downs on heavy volume three times over those 16 months.  The stock seems to have put in at least a near-term bottom with its latest quarterly earnings, which were...  Read More

Is The Market Topping? Relative Sector Performance Says NO WAY!

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, February 15, 2017 Healthcare (XLV, +1.08%) resumed its leadership role but relative performance in this sector has been quite weak since the summer.  Below is a chart that shows a ratio of the XLV to the S&P 500.  If you've been buying and holding this sector, you've experienced underperformance and that's not unusual during bull...  Read More

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Housing and Retail Stocks Power the Consumer Discretionary Sector

by Arthur Hill

.... Small-caps Join the New High Parade .... Housing and Retail Come to Life .... Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary Sector Breaks Out .... Five Housing Stocks to Watch (DHI, FBHS, KBH, SKY, TOL) .... Commercial Metals Resumes Bigger Uptrend .... United Airlines Challenges Flag Resistance  .... Cornerstone OnDemand Consolidates Above 200-day EMA .... Itron Ends Correction with Breakout...  Read More

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Trump Rally Reboot Forms a Steep Rising Trend Channel

by Erin Heim

The Trump Rally Reboot or as I am calling it, TR2. It's uncertain when the shine will tarnish for the markets and investors. For now, there are no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, and none imminent that I've observed either. The PMOs are rising strongly as TR2 carries stock prices along on a very steep rising trend channel. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update  Read More

Canadian Energy Stocks Try To Bounce

by Greg Schnell

The energy sector has had a rough ride since December 8th. The decline in the energy stocks has been going on for two months. Even some of the best performers last year are down around 20-25%. On the Commodities Countdown webinar 2017-02-09, I discussed how to monitor stocks  Read More

WBA Turns Up after Deep Correction

by Arthur Hill

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has traded quite choppy over the last 12 months, but I think the bigger trend is up and the recent wedge breakout is bullish. First, notice that WBA broke above a major resistance zone with the November-December surge. This move forged a 52-week high and set the bullish tone for the long-term uptrend. Second, note that the 200-day slope turned positive in late...  Read More

These Are Two Very Bullish Components Of The NASDAQ 100

by Tom Bowley

I'll return tomorrow morning with my regular Trading Places article with all the normal features.  Today I simply want to point out two component stocks in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) that look very bullish to me.  The first is Costco (COST).  Basing patterns that finally breakout can lead to months or years of solid gains so I'm looking for COST to outperform the NDX in the  Read More

New Chart Spotlight Added to DecisionPoint LIVE Webinars

by Erin Heim

The DecisionPoint LIVE webinars on Wednesday and Fridays at 7:00pm EST are news programs. In just 30 minutes, I go over the current DecisionPoint Scoreboards, cover daily/weekly/monthly charts of major large- and small-cap indexes, review indicators and finish with analysis of the "Big Four" -- Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds. I've found  Read More

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Higher Prices - Short-Term Indicators Getting Overbought

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. We will likely not see any changes unless and until this rally breaks down; which right now, the market doesn't seem interested in doing. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the  Read More

Bank Of America (BAC) Ends Consolidation Pattern With A Big Bull Push - SCTR

by Greg Schnell

Bank of America (BAC) has been consolidating recently. Today that consolidation ended as BAC made a big bull push out of the consolidation pattern. With a strong SCTR, this was on the radar anyway. Click on this link to understand more about what the SCTR...  Read More

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BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE ON YELLEN TESTIMONY -- THAT HELPS FINANCIALS AND HURTS UTILITIES

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE... Previous messages have described Treasury bond yields as consolidating within a major uptrend since mid-December . Today's jump in yields supports that view. In testimomy before Congress today, Janet Yellen warned about the danger of the Fed falling behind the inflation curve. That more hawkish statement pushed bond yields sharply higher (and bond prices...  Read More