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The Canadian Technician

Ballard Power (BLP.TO) Kicks In The Backup Power Supply

by Greg Schnell

One of the beautiful things about technical analysis is it quickly evaluates a stock. Without a lot of debate, you can quickly understand a trend. Is it up or down? Well, this morning, Ballard (BLP.TO) crossed into one of my scans again. What used to be one of the high rolling stocks 15 years ago, is actually rising up after being in a long-term meltdown. I'll leave it to you  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Defense Stocks Ready To Fire Back?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for August 29, 2016 It was a strong, wide participation kind of day for U.S. equities on Monday as August 2016 nears a close.  Stocks continue to battle through various sorts of difficulty, including negative divergences, slowing volume, seasonal headwinds, questionable relative ratios (offense vs. defense ratios), uncertainty over the U.S. presidential race  Read More

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Art's Charts

Slow and Steady Winning the Race - Small-caps and Offensive Sectors Leading - 30-yr Yield Balks - Webinar Preview

by Arthur Hill

Slow and Steady Winning the Race    //    IWM Continues to Lead the Big 3    //    Offensive Sectors Leading the Market    //    EW Tech and Finance ETFs Hit New Highs    //    Short Yields Surge as 30-yr Yield Stalls    //    Webinar Preview     ////     .....    ...  Read More

Mon, Aug 29

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DecisionPoint Alert

Consolidation Zone Holding Firm - PMO Bottom on TLT

by Erin Heim

Last Friday saw two new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Today, they remain the same. The Scoreboards are leaning bullish, but the short term has seen some deterioration. The sideways continuation due to neutral market action is getting old. Bulls and bears have reached a stalemate. It may come down to unusual global news or a few poor economic reports to shake the market up...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Insurance SPDR Leads Finance Related ETFs

by Arthur Hill

Stocks in the finance sector have been strong the last four days with the Insurance SPDR (KIE) showing chart leadership. Note that the Finance SPDR (XLF), Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) and Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) are all up over the past week, but KIE is the only one trading at a new 52-week high already. This means the KIE chart is the strongest of the group. On the chart below, KIE stalled at...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Industrial Alliance (IAG.TO) Puts New 52 Week Highs In Place

by Greg Schnell

Industrial Alliance (IAG.TO) rang the new 52-week high alarm this week. It also is very close to breaking out to new 3-year and all time highs. I wrote about Canadian Insurance companies  a few weeks ago mentioning how weak they all are. The  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

10 Year Treasury Yield Surges To 2 Month High

by Tom Bowley

Special NOTE Please check out the Historical Tendencies section below for important seasonal information as we approach the bearish month of September.  There are a couple of important links - one to join me for my webinar today at 1pm and also one to join us at StockCharts.com for a "can't miss"  online ChartCon event.  It's the first of  Read More

Sun, Aug 28

DecisionPoint

SPY: Long-Term Indicators Overbought

by Carl Swenlin

As we watch day-to-day market action, there is a tendency to focus on shorter-term indicators and to lose touch with the longer-term picture. With this in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to look at a trio of long-term indicators that tend to escape our immediate attention. The first is the 1% EMA of the Advance-Decline Ratio. Without going into how it got that name, let me just say...  Read More

Sat, Aug 27

Wyckoff Power Charting

Phase Analysis. Two Case Studies

by Bruce Fraser

Accumulation is a process, from beginning to end. The purpose of Accumulation is to create an environment where the Composite Operator (C.O.) is able to accumulate large quantities of stock. This is referred to as Absorption. A long and robust stock uptrend follows Accumulation. The Absorption of stock is the systematic removal of stock from the marketplace. The C.O. is purchasing the stock and...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Nautilus Does Some Heavy Lifting On Friday

by Tom Bowley

Nautilus (NLS) officially became a technical heavyweight on Friday as its stock price soared through price resistance to a fresh new 52 week high, bouncing bullishly off its rising 20 day EMA in the process.  Volume supported its first very bullish gap in early August and it once again confirmed yesterday's gap and breakout session.  Take a look: The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR)...  Read More

Fri, Aug 26

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DecisionPoint Alert

Short-Term Indicators Go Negative - Two Bearish ST Trend Model Signals on Scoreboards

by Erin Heim

There were two new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Today saw the Dow and OEX trigger new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) Neutral signals as the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA. This tells us that the shorter-term trends are getting negative. A review of the SPX chart shows the 5-EMA in decline, it just hasn't crossed below the 20-EMA to switch the signal. To review the annotated...  Read More

The Traders Journal

Fundamentals versus Technicals: This Ends the Debate!

by Gatis Roze

In one corner, you have investors.   In the other corner, you have the stock market.  When the two communicate accurately, you make money.  Yes, it is that simple.  Stay with me and I'll make it worth your while. Investors, stock pickers, traders – pick a label – all sit somewhere along a dichotomist spectrum from fundamental analysis (based on earnings, sales, assets...  Read More

TechniTrader

Martha Stokes: Identifying Breakout Patterns Prior to Momentum Runs

by Martha Stokes

The Importance of a Volume Oscillator in the Market Today The most difficult aspect of reading stock charts for most Technical and Retail Traders are the sideways patterns. Many traders simply do not know how to interpret sideways patterns, to determine in advance whether the stock will move up or down out of the sideways pattern. This is often why Options Traders use spreads  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

S&P 500 Hadn't Done This In Two Months

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, August 25, 2016 For the first time since late June, the S&P 500 closed beneath its 20 day EMA.  We've seen plenty of closes near its 20 day EMA, but yesterday marked the first one beneath.  Normally that's a pretty big deal with a negative divergence in play, but we'll have to see how this plays out today.  Traders will have the...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Banks Continue To Find All-TIme Highs

by Greg Schnell

Canadian banks have been some of the best-performing banks in North America. While that isn't a stellar statement of strength, they are doing a good job of outperforming their beaten down peers. As the market participants wrestle with the Fed Yin-Yang every day, there is a quiet strength starting to show up across the large cap banks in North America. Let's zoom in on the Canadians as they...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Bank Of America (BAC) Approaches 2016 Highs

by Greg Schnell

Bank Of America (BAC) has been migrating higher over the last few months off the Brexit lows. As Bank Of America approaches the highs for 2016, the chart has some interesting traits. The last time BAC got near $15, the SCTR ranking was poor, sitting around 30. That means that 70% of the large-cap stocks had better price action than BAC. This trip to $15 is showing something...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Oil Pauses, Natural Gas Pops, Gold Slides - Webinar Skim 2016-08-25

by Greg Schnell

The commodity pops and drops this week have been very sudden both ways. Oil struggled as it approached $50 and has drifted back this week. This is not really a surprise, as probably every floor trader was selling at resistance. It has now built a nice channel between $39 and $50. If crude breaks through over the next few weeks, expect it to accelerate quickly. I started off with a review of the...  Read More

Thu, Aug 25

DecisionPoint

Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Lights Up and Triggers PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

Oil has been enjoying a strong rally. I wrote about a possible bull flag forming on Oil in today's DecisionPoint Alert blog that you may want to review. Natural gas, on the other hand, has not had the advantages that Oil has had. However, it may be lighting back up with the new Price  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Declining Trend Continues, But Support Holding - USO Pullback Forming a Bull Flag?

by Erin Heim

The last two weeks have had a striking similarity to the two weeks before them. There are two very distinct consolidation zones. The stalemate between bulls and bears has continued throughout August with neither able to make a statement. With the four ST PMO signals on the DP Scoreboards, momentum has a bearish bias.   The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is  Read More

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

Look Up Not Down

by Martin Pring

More corrective activity to come? Are we there yet with Dow Theory? Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That is because the NYSE A/D line, and that constructed from common stocks only were both at new...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Slowing Momentum And Negative Divergences Are Wreaking Havoc On Equities

by Tom Bowley

The U.S. stock market has been suffering from a series of negative divergences that have run rampant throughout many sectors and industry groups.  As one weakening group sells off, money rotates to another strengthening group.  We have not been seeing wide participation moves to the upside.  The sector performance over the past month underscores this.  The energy sector  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Rough Day For Healthcare As Biotechs Fail At Resistance

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 24, 2016 Healthcare (XLV, -1.57%) was one of two sectors losing more than 1% on Wednesday as the Dow Jones U.S. Biotechnology Index ($DJUSBT) fell 2.46%.  There were many losers in the biotech space, but Amgen's loss of its rising 20 day EMA with a negative divergence is simply typical of what the overall market has been facing throughout...  Read More

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Art's Charts

RSI and the Dreaded Double Dip - Gold, Utilities and Banks Key Off Treasuries - XLF and KRE Hold Breakouts

by Arthur Hill

SPY and MDY are Barely Positive this Month     //     RSI(5) and the Dreaded Double Dip     //     The Noose Continues to Tighten for Treasuries     //     How Yields Effect Gold, Utilities and Finance      //     US 10-yr Yields Sticks Out     //      XLF and KRE Maintain Breakouts...  Read More

Wed, Aug 24

Members Only

DecisionPoint Alert

Steep Short-Term Declining Trend - ITTM Neutral Signal Generates on Utilities SPDR (XLU)

by Erin Heim

Before I start today's DP Alert article, I want to remind everyone that ChartCon 2016 is less than a month away! If you're a DecisionPoint follower, this ChartCon is for you. I'll be presenting the DecisionPoint Analysis Process and how you can use it to build your own trading system. ChartCon 2016 is "virtual". You can  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Breaks Wedge and Underperforms

by Arthur Hill

The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) looks vulnerable because the bigger trend is down and the ETF just broke a wedge trend line. The chart shows the 50-day EMA (green) below the 200-day EMA (red) and this suggests that a long-term downtrend remains underway. The ETF got a bounce in August, but a rising wedge formed and XES broke the wedge trend line with a decline the last three...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Dollar Remains Under Pressure, Lifting Materials And Energy

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, August 23, 2016 While U.S. equities continue to waver, albeit in a slow northerly fashion, they're not the only asset groups trying to figure out which direction they want to ultimately go.   Yesterday, I discussed the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) struggling to break out of a six week long consolidation between 1.50% and 1.60%, suggesting that...  Read More

Tue, Aug 23

DecisionPoint

Small-Cap ETFs Reveal Bullish Bias

by Erin Heim

An increase in bullishness on small-cap stocks is needed to support a new bull market move. Small-cap participation or better yet, small-cap leadership can help determine the health of the market in general. While reviewing the small-cap ETFs in the DecisionPoint LIVE public ChartList, I noticed some  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Positive Close, But Bears in Control

by Erin Heim

Price is continuing to inch across the daily charts, not up or down. Price and the market seem to have reached equilibrium for the past month. We've seen two consolidation channels and only one real breakout that basically established the second trading channel. Although the market closed higher on the day, most of the gains that had been accumulated at the open were pared by more than half by...  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

Survivorship Bias

by Greg Morris

The story about Abraham Wald's work as a member of the Statistical Research Group during World War II can shed some light into money management (widely disseminated as Abraham Wald's Memo).  Wald was tasked with damage assessments to aircraft that returned from service over Germany, and determine which areas of the aircraft structure should be better protected.  He found that the...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stretches Above Resistance

by Greg Schnell

Morgan Stanley (MS) has built a nice base and has been pushing above resistance for the last week. There are a few more clues that I like on the chart. The Relative Strength is just starting to break out above 6-month highs and the SCTR has moved above 75 which puts it in the top quartile for price action. The price has broken above the horizontal resistance layer. The PMO keeps accelerating...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Martin Pring and Greg Schnell - Back From The Precipice - Webinar August 23

by Greg Schnell

Martin Pring and Greg Schnell are getting together in Pring Studios in Florida to do a live debate webinar. The setup is compelling as many of the major charts in the world are lining up for a major shift. I've nicknamed the webinar 'Back From The Precipice' as the charts appear to be setting up for a major trend change.  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Bifurcated Market Signals Little About The Short-Term

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, August 22, 2016 Monday was another boring day with most of the action slanting to the negative side, but it was nothing terrible.  In fact, both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 managed to finish the session with small gains while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 suffered just minor losses.  Defensive sectors led the action with utilities (XLU,  Read More

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Art's Charts

Price Action vs Momentum - All about Bollinger Band Squeezes (KRE, XLF, XSD) - Scanning for Squeezes - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

Click here for the webinar video recording The Song Remains the Same for SPY     //     Upward Price Action > Waning Momentum    //     IWM Continues to Lead     //     Bollinger Band Squeezes for KRE and XLF     //     Beware of  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

The Dow's Amazing Symmetric Triangle

by Chip Anderson

The Dow did something strange and wonderful today on its intraday chart: A perfect symmetric triangle pattern!  But one with really strange jumps up and down throughout.  Truly fascinating.  Usually Symmetric Triangles are "Continuation" patterns, which typically break in the direction of the trend prior to their formation.  But the Dow has been moving sideways for...  Read More

Mon, Aug 22

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DecisionPoint Alert

Above Support but Below Resistance - Gold Breaks Below Support

by Erin Heim

There were no new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today following Friday's PMO SELL signal on the NDX. A view of these four charts (available in the DecisionPoint LIVE public ChartList) tells us that the next signal changes will be on the Short-Term Trend Model when the 5-EMA crosses below the 20-EMA.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Mattel Challenges Resistance with Signs of Accumulation

by Arthur Hill

Mattel (MAT) led the market from early October to early February with a 65 percent advance and then moved into a large consolidation the last six months. More recently, the stock surged off support in late June and then formed a smaller consolidation near resistance. Notice that the stock advanced with good volume on Monday and this could foreshadow a breakout. The lower indicator window shows...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

If The Shoe Fits, Then Buy It

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, August 19, 2016 Stocks ended last week on a negative note with each of our major indices finishing in negative territory.  Losses were very minor on the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000, however, and three sectors - materials (XLB, +0.14%), technology (XLK, +0.06%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.06%) did manage to finish with gains...  Read More

RRG Charts

Facebook (FB) not able to keep up with XLK

by Julius de Kempenaer

The technology sector, as represented by XLK, started to show some positive sector rotation over the past month and last week managed to crossover from the improving quadrant to the leading quadrant on the weekly Relative Rotation Graph. Reason enough to check out the relative technical conditions for the stocks that make up XLK as shown on the Relative Rotation Graph below. Summary Positive...  Read More

Sun, Aug 21

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Merck Breaks To An All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

One company's failure can be another company's catalyst.  Take for instance Merck & Co (MRK), who on Friday, August 5th surged to an all-time high after Bristol Myers (BMY) had a failed clinical trial of its lung cancer drug.  BMY had clearly been outperforming MRK for several years up until this news hit.  Since then, the two have been moving in opposite directions with...  Read More

DecisionPoint

New Highs Contracting Against Higher Prices

by Carl Swenlin

Since late-June, prices have been moving higher, while the number of new 52-week highs has been fading. On the face of it this might be cause for concern; however, there are a couple of things that mitigate this apparent weakness. First, while new highs have been contracting, there has been no expansion of new 52-week lows. Conveniently, there is an example of a combination of shrinking new...  Read More