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Bloomberg Commodity Index Testing Its 2018 High -- Upside Commodity Breakout Would Signal Higher Inflation -- Rising Commodity Prices Push Bond Yields Higher

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in  John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, April 19th at 12:11pm ET BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading  Read More

Go Away In May? Not If You Own This NASDAQ 100 Stock

by Tom Bowley

One of the most over used cliches in the stock market, in my opinion, is "go away in May".  First of all, it's simply bad investment advice.  Since 1950 on the S&P 500, the May 1st to July 17th period has produced annualized returns of 6.00%.  So if you decide to "go away in May", where will you park your long-term money in today's environment and beat 6%?  Granted, that  Read More

Three Strike Trend Following with the PPO

by Arthur Hill

The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is mostly used as a momentum oscillator, but chartists can also use it to define the trend, even the long-term trend. Chartists interested in trend signals can simply ignore the wiggles and the signal line, and instead focus on zero line crossovers.  As noted in ChartSchool, the  Read More

Market Hits Resistance (Also: Did you Suffer from Portfolio Diversification Malfunction?)

by Tushar Chande

The market rose into resistance and pulled back a bit, even as the short-term trend picture improved significantly.  The reported earnings were strong, but manged to disappoint some traders.  On a different note,  I explore the performance of bonds, gold and commodities in providing diversification during this year's decline (hint: the results may surprise you).   Chart 1:  Read More

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Is The Breakout In The Dollar For Real?

by Martin Pring

The primary trend The short-term picture The Dollar, Copper and Gold The Dollar Index showed some green shoots at the end of the week that might lead to greater things. That's important in its own right, but since the dollar often moves inversely with commodities and gold its direction has wider implications than purely the currency pits and bank trading rooms. The primary  Read More

What a Trip! PMO Finds Two Travel & Tourism Stocks Poised To Take Off

by Erin Swenlin

This afternoon I ran one of my PMO scans (you'll find the link to my most popular scan in the link at the bottom of this article) and found two Travel & Tourism stocks that I found quite interesting. What I look for are Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) readings that are rising or have had a positive crossover along with a favorable price chart. TripAdvisor (TRIP) and Booking  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Technology Whipsaw

by Carl Swenlin

The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review, our Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) changes to BUY when the 20EMA crosses up through the  Read More

4/20 MWL Recap - Tom's Workshop: Trading Breakouts v. Consolidation - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Can Financials Soar If Bonds Yield Rise Above 3%?

by Greg Schnell

Financials have been down and out recently but the last two days they showed some resiliency in the face of broader selling.  The Bank Index looks set to turn higher. Widening out the picture, since 2016, the rising rates shown on the $TNX chart have created sudden moves on the $DJUSBK index. I posted an article in Don't Ignore This Chart Friday afternoon with this price chart of the TLT  Read More

It's all About Reward to Risk

by John Hopkins

Anytime we issue a trade alert to members at EarningsBeats it must carry a minimum reward to risk of at least 2 to 1. In fact we rarely consider getting involved in a trade unless the potential reward to risk is at least 3 to 1 or higher. The concept of reward to risk is simple; we don't want to put capital at risk unless it's worth while. This means there needs to be a disproportionate upside  Read More

Bond Prices Look Set To Break Down Meaningfully

by Greg Schnell

Bond prices are rolling over at a critical place on the charts. This sends yields higher. The big 5 year picture shows the delicate place where the bonds prices are falling. It is a perfect head/shoulders top with declining momentum on each push up. This is shown on the MACD. Also, notice the MACD gave a sell signal on Friday's close and closed below the 10 Week Moving Average.  While  Read More

An Organized Process to Navigate the Markets - ChartPack Update #19 (Q1, 2018)

by Gatis Roze

In the 18 years I've been teaching investors to grow their wealth, I believe I can simplify it down to two basic prerequisites for success.  Despite all the clatter, prattle and bluster that increasingly emanates from the financial industry, individual investors can multiply their probability of success many times over by grasping two essentials.  I've witnessed that the investors who  Read More

All eyes on the CAT

by Julius de Kempenaer

Yesterday, Thursday 19th of April, it was my turn again to join Tom and Erin in their Market Watchers Live show again. By the way, I will be joining them every third Thursday of the month to talk about RRG and talk about market developments from an RRG point of view. My idea for yesterday's show was to talk the audience through some of the rationales behind my  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - The Range Narrows

by Arthur Hill

A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500. Monitoring the Upswing in SPY. Raff Regression Channel Explained. QQQ Weathers Semiconductor Weakness. IJR Challenges Rim Resistance. Big Wedge and Little Wedge in XLF. XLY, XLK and XLI Lead the Big Sectors. SOXX Fails to Hold Breakout. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500 The S&P 500 sums up  Read More

Treasury Yields Spike; TNX Threatens 4+ Year High, Banks Soar

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, April 19, 2018 The U.S. stock market has been solid throughout April thus far, so seeing a Thursday drop of 0.57% and 0.78% on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively, shouldn't be too alarming.  And it wasn't.  But yesterday was not a day of across-the-board fractional losses.  There was major strength in some areas and serious selling in others  Read More

Tech Sector (XLK) Clicks to IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, a new IT Trend Model BUY signal was added. Before this BUY signal, there were only two sectors on IT BUY signals and they were in somewhat defensive areas of the market, Utilities and Energy. It is good news to see this BUY signal back for the sector with the highest cap-weight and an aggressive area of the market. As I wrote yesterday, the  Read More

American Express Goes To The Front Of The Line

by Greg Schnell

American Express jumped to the front of the line and closed on all time highs with a huge surge today. The SCTR surged back above 75 and the Relative Strength moved to new highs. Both of these are excellent indicators of strength. The price chart shows todays move exploding outside the range of the recent consolidation. Moves like this usually continue so watch for the stock to stay  Read More

4/19 MWL Recap - Julius de Kempenaer on RRG - Under the Radar

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS TESTING ITS 2018 HIGH -- AN UPSIDE COMMODITY BREAKOUT WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER INFLATION

by John Murphy

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising commodity prices usually cause Treasury bond prices to fall and yields to rise (as they're  Read More

Bifurcated Action Doesn't Hold Back Transports, Renewable Energy

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, April 18, 2018 Our major indices showed signs of tiring on Wednesday as its seasonal pre-earnings run from April 1st to April 18th concluded.  Five sectors managed to finish in positive territory, including the red-hot energy sector (XLE, +1.57%) and industrials (XLI, +1.04%).  The latter benefited from a superb showing by transports ($TRAN) as railroads  Read More

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Finance and Banks Lag, but 10-yr Yield Breaks Out as Commodities Move Higher

by Arthur Hill

IJR Moves above Chandelier Exit. Finance Sector Underperforms. Regional Bank SPDR Forms Bear Flag. 10-yr Yield Breaks out of Flag. Yield Curve Sinks to Multi-year Lows. Bond Bounce May be Ending. Commodities are on the Move. Copper Bounces off Support (plus COPX). Gold Forms Bullish Cup-with-Handle. The S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) is leading the market with a surge above the Chandelier Exit  Read More

DP Alert: Will Dollar Ever Breakout? - Market Short-Term Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

This week the DP Scoreboards turned short-term bullish. Unfortunately, I suspect this breakout won't hold long if the short-term indicators continue to stretch into very overbought territory. Although the Scoreboards show intermediate-term neutral to bearish, the intermediate-term market indicators suggest we likely have seen the lows for the correction and may very well side-step a bear market  Read More

Silver Surges out of Bollinger Band Squeeze

by Arthur Hill

Industrial metals surged on Wednesday with 2+ percent gains coming in silver, aluminum, palladium, copper and nickel. The Silver ETF (SLV), in particular, finally broke out of a two-month consolidation. The chart below shows the Silver ETF (SLV) with Bollinger Bands in pink and BandWidth in the indicator window. Overall, SLV has been stuck in a large trading range the last 12 months. With  Read More

4/18 MWL Recap - Tim Ord of The Ord Oracle - Technical Scans

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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CSX AND UNITED AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- AND BOOST THE INDUSTRIAL SPDR

by John Murphy

TRANSPORTS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT Monday's message showed the Dow Transports rising above their 50-day average to turn their trend higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports on the verge of breaking through overhead resistance formed in late February and mid-March. While rails and truckers (and FedEx) were Monday's leaders, airlines are today's standout group. Chart 2  Read More

Twitter Leads Internet Group Higher; Netflix Soars On Earnings Beat

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, April 17, 2018 Futures were solid heading into Tuesday's pre-market action as Netflix reported stellar Q1 results after the closing bell on Monday.  Then, on Tuesday morning, home construction ($DJUSHB) received great news as both March housing starts and building permits easily exceeded expectations.  Just before the market opened, the March industrial  Read More

Major Shakeup on DecisionPoint Scoreboards - Short-Term BUY Signals Everywhere

by Erin Swenlin

Since Friday, the DecisionPoint Scoreboards have been adding short-term buy signal after short-term buy signal. With today's breakouts from consolidation zones, I believe they are timely. You may be wondering what it would take to start seeing BUY signals in the intermediate term. The IT Trend Model signals are based on 20/50-EMA crossovers in relation to the 200-EMA. We would need to see the  Read More

4/17 MWL Recap - Everything StockCharts - Spotlight Stocks - Agree or Disagree?

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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More Indicators Are Flashing The All Clear

by Martin Pring

Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled Breath indicators are firming up Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled Last week I wrote that many of the short-term indicators were flashing buy signals and that we should expect the US equity market to work its way higher. I also pointed out that the DIA had experienced a bearish  Read More

Gold and Silver 2018-04-13 Video

by Greg Schnell

Gold and Silver have been perking up lately. More importantly the miners have been moving faster than the metals.  I am posting this blog on Tuesday and the precious metals stocks are flying even though Gold is unchanged on the day.  When the mining stocks outperform the metals, this is usually an excellent time to be invested in the industry. Here is a chart of the miners  Read More

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ALONG WITH THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- TWITTER AND ALPHABET LEAD INTERNET STOCKS HIGHER

by John Murphy

NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER Stocks are having another good chart day. All major stock indexes are trading well above their 50-day averages. The Nasdaq market is in the lead. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gapping over its 50-day line today. The rising red line is a ratio of the QQQ divided by the S&P 500. It too is rising after underperforming  Read More

Microsoft (MSFT) Resumes The Ramp

by Greg Schnell

Microsoft has been a huge mover in the large cap space. Over the last few months, it took a rare pause on making higher highs. It looks ready to start climbing again. The SCTR continues to be up in the top 25% and is currently at 90. The relative strength just keeps hitting all time highs. The price move today suggests it is continuing in its uptrend.  The MACD is just moving above zero so  Read More

Falling VIX Aiding Stocks; Watch This Resistance Zone On S&P 500

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, April 16, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.37%) and materials (XLB, +1.34%) led rather odd market behavior on Monday.  The good news is that all nine sectors finished higher.  The bad news is that our most aggressive sectors struggled on a relative basis.  Financials (XLF, +0.44%) continued to suffer from an uninspired banking group ($DJUSBK, -0.03%)  Read More

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SPY Grinds Higher as Bullish Continuation Pattern Brews in Small-Cap ETF

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps Rise as Large-caps Grind. Cup-with-handle Evolves in IJR. Three Leading Small-Cap Sectors. XRT Holds Breakout. Providers and Devices Lead Healthcare. ITA Edges Above Short-term Resistance. Delta and Micron Correct within Uptrends. Small-caps Rise as Large-caps Grind After a fairly dismal March, stocks moved higher this month with small-caps leading the way. The  Read More

Analog Devices Reverses Course at Key Retracement

by Arthur Hill

Analog Devices (ADI) is a large semiconductor stock and a leader in the internet of things (IoT). The stock is in a long-term uptrend and recently broke short-term resistance to reverse a short-term pullback.  First and foremost, the long-term trend is up. The stock hit a 52-week high in January, the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and the price is above the rising 200-day EMA.   Read More

4/16 MWL Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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DOW TRANSPORTS CLEAR THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- JB HUNT AND CH ROBINSON ARE LEADING

by John Murphy

DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED 50-DAY AVERAGE Stocks are opening the new week on a positive note. Transportation stocks are having an especially strong day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Transports climbing 2% this morning. More importantly, the $TRAN is trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle). It also appears to be on the verge of rising above a  Read More

Energy Now Sports The Highest SCTR Among Sectors

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, April 13, 2018 U.S. stocks fell on Friday the 13th, but managed to cut intraday losses in half (or more) during the final 45 minutes of the session.  Most of our major indices lost roughly 0.50%, except for the benchmark S&P 500, which fell a more palatable 0.29%.  Six of nine sectors lost ground, including a very weak financials sector (XLF, -1.51%) after  Read More

AAPL and WMT moving in opposite directions on Relative Rotation Graph

by Julius de Kempenaer

Last week I attended the CMT Association's annual symposium in New York City. One of the industry events that I visit each year. On the one hand to learn from other industry professionals but very much also to catch up with friends and maintain relationships. As I am writing this, I am still in New York digesting all information and organizing my notes which I gathered during the previous week  Read More

Win the Race with Relative Strength

by Bruce Fraser

Fellow Wyckoffian, Dan, emailed a very good question this week. Dan is seeing the energy stocks move up and he observes that being a cyclical industry, these stocks typically move in unison. Dan is observing that some of the stocks are completing Accumulation phases while others are already in uptrends. He asks how to select the likely best performers among these stocks. The Wyckoff Method  Read More