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3/25 MWL Recap: Monday Setups - Earnings Spotlight - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

TJX Bucks the Selling Pressure

by Arthur Hill

TJX Companies (TJX) is part of the S&P 500 and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY). It is also part of two growth ETFs (PWB and PXLG). Even though TJX is part of an economically sensitive sector, I would put them in a different category because they are known as an "off price" retailer for apparel and home furnishings. The stock sports a strong chart and is trading at its high of the year  Read More

The VIX And S&P 500 Positive Correlation Predicted Friday's Drop

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 22, 2019 Investors were worried on Friday and it was reflected in the Volatility Index ($VIX), which rose more than 20%, and sharply lower U.S. equity prices.  The small cap Russell 2000 was hit hardest, dropping 3.62%.  The weakness, however, was felt just about everywhere.  The NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 2.50%, 1.90%, and 1.77%  Read More

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RSI Bear Ranges for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 - ChartList Update

by Arthur Hill

RSI Holds Bear Range for S&P 500 A Classical Reversal Area for Russell 2000 Small-cap Breadth Indicators Flip Selling Pressure in Key Groups ChartList Updates RSI Holds Bear Range for S&P 500 The S&P 500 remains above its slightly rising 40-week SMA, but this key benchmark has gone nowhere since January 2018 (60 weeks). $SPX is trading near its January 2018 high  Read More

Is This The Final High? And Was The Top In 2018?

by Greg Schnell

Much has been made of the 10-year yield dropping below the 3-month yield. In this week's case, it was particularly acute. The equity market (stocks) plummeted as the yields fell hard. US banks dropped significantly. When the scale of interest rates loses its normal "sort order" of longer term (10-year or 30-year) rates having higher yields than shorter term  Read More

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US Stocks Looking Vulnerable Again

by Martin Pring

Long-Term Picture Remains Finely Balanced Short-Term Indicators Still Showing Weakness Confidence is Starting to Erode Again Financials Break Down from a Broadening Wedge Earlier in the month, I wrote about the Ides of March and the fact that the market looked overstretched, apparently in need of some mean reversal corrective activity. The market immediately thumbed its nose at my  Read More

Europe vs The USA... And The Winner Is ....

by Julius de Kempenaer

I like to keep an eye on what's going on in the world around us. That means also monitoring what's happening in markets that are maybe not directly of interest when it comes to trading or investing. For stock markets around the world I like to use the pre-defined group "International Stockmarket Indexes" on the RRG page. The resulting Relative Rotation Graph populated with this group is shown  Read More

Has A Big Bear Market Rally Just Finished ? 2019-03-23 Weekly Market Roundup

by Greg Schnell

World Charts Look Risky Outside Bars Suggest Reversal Commodities Under Fire Timing on the Copper and Steel charts is Unnerving Energy-related ETFs and Stocks have Huge Caution Signs Watching to see if Gold is the Next Bullish Move (expecting a huge move) Continuing with my theme of trouble out there, banks, industrials, brokers and energy all had another tough week. The video this week  Read More

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PLUNGE IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS AND INVERTED YIELD CURVE PUSHES BOND PRICES HIGHER AND STOCKS LOWER -- FALLING BOND YIELDS REWARD UTILITIES WHILE HURTING BANKS

by John Murphy

PLUNGE IN BOND YIELDS CAUSES YIELD CURVE TO INVERT Weak economic numbers from the eurozone and the U.S. on Friday pushed bond yields here and in Europe sharply lower and caused heavy profit-taking in global stocks. The 1 0-Year German bond yield fell into negative territory (below zero) for the first time since 2016, while the 10-Year Treasury  Read More

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Fakeout Breakout; Bond Blastoff

by Carl Swenlin

Last week certain indicators had me looking for a short-term market top, and on Wednesday it looked as if it had arrived. But no. On Thursday the market moved to new rally highs on volume that wasn't too little or too much, so I thought that looked like a pretty solid breakout. But no -- it was a fakeout. Friday saw a level of selling that we haven't seen for some time, and price retested  Read More

Week Ahead: Upsides May Remain Limited; Corrective Moves Likely From Higher Levels

by Milan Vaishnav

Following an unabated up move over the last several days, the markets finally took a breather on the last trading day of the week. After the session on Friday, the NIFTY has displayed visible signs of consolidation creeping in to the markets, which had become steeply overbought on the daily charts. As the week ended, it also highlighted the major resistance area for the markets on the weekly  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Crosscurrents, Undercurrents and Weight of the Evidence

by Arthur Hill

Bigger Downtrends or Simply Resting? Bank ETFs Fail at 200-day SMAs. Small-cap Indexes Fail near Retracements. Oil Nears Potential Reversal Zone. Focus on the True Leaders. S&P 500 Maintains Uptrend. Index Breadth Table Remains Bullish. Sector Breadth Table is More Mixed. Staples, Utilities, REITs and Tech. Bonds Extend on Breakout. Disney Removed from ChartList. Short Russell 2000 ETF  Read More

Apple Leads Big Technology Rally

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, March 21, 2019 Technology stocks (XLK, +2.51%) carried Wall Street higher on Thursday as computer hardware ($DJUSCR, +3.56%), semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +3.13%), and software ($DJUSSW, +2.20%) all surged to fresh 2019 highs.  Apple, Inc. (AAPL, +3.68%), which has regained its title of largest market cap company in the world, was a major contributor to the computer  Read More

The Bond Market Is Sending Us The Most Bearish Signal

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 20, 2019 Yesterday was all about the Fed and what it might say.  It was essentially a foregone conclusion that there'd be no rate hike, so traders were on edge anticipating what might change in the Fed's policy statement.  Stock traders seem to have a love affair with the notion of cheap money.  The Fed has definitely become much more dovish  Read More

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March Turns Rough for Small and Mid Caps

by Arthur Hill

The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is not only lagging the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) in March, but it is also under selling pressure and down month-to-date. Typically, I am not concerned with relative weakness in small-caps when they are simple up less than large-caps. However, we are seeing absolute weakness in small and mid caps, and a large performance discrepancy the  Read More

Energy Stands Out on Relative Rotation Graph For Indian Sectors

by Julius de Kempenaer

The list of pre-defined groups in the RRG-menu has been expanded with the universe covering Indian sectors against the Nifty 500 index as the benchmark. Very recently also the universe of individual stocks making up the Sensex 30 index was added. With the Nifty 50 group already on the list, we now have three universes covering the Indian market. The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the  Read More

Given Two Lemons, You Can Make a Profitable Lemonade Stand

by Brian Livingston

Diversification works in mysterious ways. But does that mean diversifying a portfolio is a hard thing to do? No! It's actually quite simple. • The problem is that it's not obvious exactly HOW diversification improves a portfolio's return. It's not rocket science. It's simple math. But many people have never learned the ways diversification can turn a pig's ear into a profitable silk purse. •  Read More

DP Alert: SPX Momentum Failure - Negative Divergence on ST Indicators - Broken Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has topped underneath the signal line, something I consider especially bearish in the short term. Our short-term indicators have presented another "attention flag" divergence, which could be pointing to a more lasting decline. Today, the Dollar broke down dramatically on the heels of a PMO SELL signal. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards below show us  Read More

3/20 MWL Recap: Guest David Keller's Morning Coffee Routine - Momentum Sleepers

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Trucks. Trains. Airplanes.

by Bruce Fraser

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, since its creation, has been considered a sensitive leading indicator of business conditions. The legendary 'Dow Theory' was created as a trend confirmation indicator of the Industrial Average to the Transportation Average. When they are both in-gear, upward or downward, the major trend is confirmed. To read more about the Dow Theory  Read More

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Trading the Pattern within the Pattern

by Arthur Hill

There are often smaller patterns within larger patterns and traders can get a jump on a bigger breakout by acting on the smaller pattern first. For example, a cup-with-handle is a bullish continuation pattern that typically forms over a few months. A falling flag is also a bullish continuation pattern, but it typically forms over a few weeks (short-term). I picked these two patterns for a  Read More

U.S. Dollar Index Drops For 8th Straight Day, Awaiting Fed

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, March 19, 2019 The U.S. stock market finished the day in bifurcated fashion as the NASDAQ (+0.12%) clung to a relatively minor gain, while the aggressive small cap Russell 2000 index lost 0.57%.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500 barely finished in negative territory, dropping 0.10% and 0.01%, respectively.  Four of our eleven sectors finished above the flat line  Read More

Third Time Lucky for Advance Auto Parts?

by Arthur Hill

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) hit a new high in November and then moved into a corrective phase. Keep in mind that a correction can involve a decline or a consolidation, or even a combination of the two. AAP fell back towards the rising 200-day SMA in December and then stalled the last few months. Overall, this looks like a big correction with an even bigger uptrend. There are signs that this  Read More

3/19 MWL Recap: Analyzing Average True Range - Sector Rotation

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Flight Simulators See Some Upside

by Greg Schnell

In the aftermath of the Boeing 737 Max 8 issues, I was looking around the industry to see charts that might be affected by the subsequent grounding of the aircraft. Last week, a beautiful breakout occurred on CAE Systems (CAE), which makes flight simulators to train pilots on. The company has a long history of working with aircraft manufacturers to help them train the pilots who will be  Read More

The Enemy in the Mirror

by Greg Morris

I am a retired money manager and want to share some thoughts on that profession and investors in general.  Portfolio management is as much about managing emotions as it is about correlations, standard deviations and Sharpe ratios.  Over the decades much has been written about the "math" of portfolio management but the emotional aspect of the investment decision making process does not  Read More

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Deflation Sensitive Stocks Are At A New All-Time High

by Martin Pring

Deflation Index Leading the Market Higher Inflation/Deflation Ratio Starting to Break in a Deflationary Direction Several Deflation-Sensitive Industry Groups Looking Stronger Deflation Index Leading the Market Higher Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an upside price move in the bond market. So far, most areas remain below that key resistance, although some maturities, such as  Read More

Negative Divergences Could Wreak Havoc On U.S. Stocks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, March 18, 2019 U.S. stocks moved modestly higher on Monday, extending Friday breakouts on both the S&P 500 (+0.37%) and NASDAQ (+0.34%).  The Russell 2000 gained 0.67% to lead the action.  Crude oil prices ($WTIC, +1.47%) topped $59 per barrel as energy shares (XLE, +1.39%) were atop the sector leaderboard.  But it wasn't all about energy  Read More

Why Use Diversification? To Make More Profit.

by Brian Livingston

We often hear that we should diversify, diversify. Why should we do so? For greater gains. But the way to do this is seldom laid out clearly. • The secrets of diversification are not obvious. The truth is that it's possible to earn MORE MONEY from a properly managed, diversified account than the simple average of the different asset classes that are used in the account. • More than  Read More

3/18 MWL Recap: Monday Setups - John Hopkins' Earnings Spotlight - DP Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

TCS: Likely Shift of Action to IT Pack May See This Stock Relatively Outperform

by Milan Vaishnav

The IT Pack remains firmly placed in the leading quadrant of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) as bench-marked against the broader CNX500 index. However, the IT index has relatively under-performed the front-line NIFTY over the past couple of days. With the NIFTY likely to take a breather and consolidate over the coming days, there is a possibility that we could see  Read More

Here's A Gem In Apparel Retail

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 15, 2019 It was another solid day for the bulls to close out last week.  It was also quad-witching options expiration Friday, which typically results in much-heavier-than-usual volume.  Volume was certainly heavy on Friday.  Leadership was found in the aggressive NASDAQ, which jumped 0.76%.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500 followed with gains of  Read More

Amazon Makes a Threat

by Arthur Hill

Amazon is lagging the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the broader market over the last two months because it has yet to clear its January high and remains below the 200-day SMA. This is part of the reason the Invesco Momentum ETF (SPMO) is underperforming the Invesco Minimum Volatility ETF (SPMV). AMZN accounts for 8% of SPMO. Also keep in mind that Amazon accounts for a whopping 22.73% of the  Read More

Canadian Market Review 2019-03-15

by Greg Schnell

The $TSX continues to inch higher week after week, suggesting that my caution in February was unwarranted. However, this week marks options expiration, as I mentioned early in the month. While the US market seems to find these dates important, the Canadian market finds them definitely important. June 2017 - Market consolidates sideways after a gentle drift lower  Read More

Weekly Market Review 2019-03-16 Industrials Under Fire

by Greg Schnell

This week, the US Dollar lost 1.5 cents after making a new high last week. This resulted in most commodities turning up on the week. For sector movers, Technology stocks continue to be bought, while Utilities and other defensives performed well this week. That is a marked change from the performance off of the December lows. The chart below is for one week and is the  Read More

The Federal Reserve Deja Vu

by Greg Schnell

As always, next week's Fed meeting will be closely watched, with chartists in particular watching it uniquely. On the chart below, the blue lines represent Federal Reserve meeting dates. Friday marked a test of the 2823 level on the $SPX. The brown line at 2823 was the closing level on the first Fed meeting of Jay Powell's role as head of the Fed. It's déjà vu all  Read More

Could The S&P 500 Fall 2.6% Every Year For 16 Straight Years?

by Tom Bowley

In a sense, it already has.  Well, maybe not 16  straight years, but play along. I've done a lot of historical stock market research over the years and several patterns really stand out.  But one in particular always keeps me on edge as a short-term trader.  The week after options expiration generally is not good.  Over the past 7 decades, here is the  Read More

Real Estate Now Leading On Asset Class- And Sector RRGs

by Julius de Kempenaer

This Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation for asset classes over the past 9 weeks. The main observation is that fixed income related asset classes are all inside weakening and heading, rapidly, towards lagging. SPY (stocks) is close to returning into the leading quadrant. The strongest rotation at the moment, Leading-Weakening-Leading, is now shown by Real Estate. This is interesting  Read More

Party Like it's 1999

by Arthur Hill

Anyone recognize these two phones? A good old indestructible Nokia candy bar was the first phone for many of us. I had a few Nokia cellphones over the years and they always worked great, back in the day. And, we all remember the Nokia ring tone, which was the most played tune in the world as late as 2009. You can hear it about four and a half minutes into this Ted talk (  Read More

Time To Place Prudence Before Greed in the Coming Week

by Milan Vaishnav

Over the past week, the market performed in striking contrast to what had been expected. For nearly 15 weeks, the markets were consolidating near their 50-Week MA and, last week, were showing signs of further impending consolidation. In spite of this, the markets ended up putting up a very strong show last week; the headline index piled up strong gains, ending the week with net gain  Read More