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John Murphy's Market Message     Click here to read his latest post

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DecisionPoint Alert

Indecisive Market - Oil Gives Up

by Erin Heim

Not surprising, the S&P 100 generated a PMO SELL signal today when the PMO crossed below its signal line. The Dow Industrials will likely lose the BUY signal now that its PMO has already topped. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine  Read More

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Market Message

TRANSPORTS TEST LONG-TERM SUPPORT LINES -- AIRLINES AND TRUCKERS ATTRACT SOME BUYING

by John Murphy

TRANSPORTS START TO SHOW SOME BOUNCE... Transportation stocks have been one of the weakest parts of the stock market over the last year. In fact, the downtrend in that economically-sensitive group was cited several times last year as a negative warning for the economy and stock market. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average experiencing a...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

10 Charts On Why The Global Economy Is Struggling

by Greg Schnell

As a chartist, the world is a display of investor sentiment towards businesses doing well, and when the charts are declining, a sentiment towards businesses or industries declining. Through a series of charts, I hope to build a dialogue about how severe the contraction is in one of the largest businesses in the world. My hope is that you will forward the link on to people you know, so they can...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Chevron Stalls out Below Two Key Moving Averages

by Arthur Hill

Chevron (CVX) is a long-term downtrend and looks vulnerable to another leg lower. The price chart shows CVX trading below the falling 200-day moving average and below the 50-day moving average. Also notice that the 50-day is below the 200-day. These relationships indicate that the long-term trend is down. The stock recently broke support with a sharp decline in early January and then rebounded...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

U.S. Futures Rally, Looking For Short-Term Clues

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, February 9, 2016 U.S. stocks were lower throughout much of the session on Tuesday before rallying in early afternoon action to move into positive territory with one hour left.  Unfortunately, another round of quick selling emerged and all of our major indices finished lower once again.  The good news was that five sectors closed higher...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Gaps and Wedge Breaks Remain for SPY, QQQ and IWM

by Arthur Hill

Before looking at the short-term situation for SPY, QQQ and IWM, let's review the bigger trends using the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Some things are open for debate in the stock market, but I don't think there is much debate on the long-term trends. They are down by most metrics. The S&P 500 formed a lower high in early November and broke the 2000-2025 support zone on January  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

Candlestick Analysis

by Greg Morris

In 1988 I attended a Market Technician's Association (MTA) meeting in Phoenix at the Camelback Inn.  There were two wonderful highlights that occurred at that meeting: one was an introduction to Japanese candle pattern analysis/charting, and the other was meeting Ian McAvity who published Deliberations newsletter for over 40 years and remains a great friend.  Ian, you can relax  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Oil Retests The Lows Of January ($WTIC)

by Greg Schnell

West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) fell back under $28 to retest the lows of January. So far, the trend in price still has a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While it would be preferable to see this low tested and hold, all of the data regarding supply inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate (Diesel fuel) are trending higher, which is bearish for crude oil. Unfortunately,  Read More

Tue, Feb 09

DecisionPoint

NDX Price Performance Comparisons - S&P 500 New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

The first hint that the bear market rally was exhausted was when the Nasdaq 100, which had been strongest during the bear market, switched before the other indexes to a PMO SELL signal. Today, the SPX lost its BUY signal and joined the NDX with a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

SPY Loses PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

Big news today is that the SPY generated a new PMO SELL signal. Not surprisingly, the S&P 500 Scoreboard added a new PMO SELL signal as well. I'll be going over the details on that signal change in tonight's DecisionPoint blog. Additionally, join my  Read More

The Canadian Technician

The Utility Index Gets Slammed - Find Out Why At 5 EST Today

by Greg Schnell

I'll be hosting a Canadian Technician Webinar at 5 PM EST on Tuesday, February 9th. Click on the link to register. The Canadian Technician Live 20160209. The Utility Sector has been a safe haven in this storm until today. The Canadian Utility Sector ($SPTUT) got slammed so is this the end of the Utility rally? I'll...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Risk-On Sectors Stumble - Those Pesky Hammers - Webinar Recording

by Arthur Hill

Trend is Not Everything, it's...    //    Those Pesky Hammers    //    New Lows in Key Sectors    //    Even Healthcare is not Healthy    //    Long-term Laggards Become Short-term Leaders    //    Staples Start Feeling the Heat  ////      Trend is Not  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Tokyo Nikkei Average Drops 5%; U.S. Futures Weak

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, February 8, 2016 While the U.S. market continued its downward spiral, Tokyo's Nikkei Average ($NIKK) fell more than 5% overnight, losing critical price and trendline support.  Check it out: This chart was shown last week with the key price and trendline support reflected.  Last night's action is NOT on this chart, but the NIKK closed at 16085, which is  Read More

Mon, Feb 08

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

Intermediate Indicators Still Signal A Rally But Remember, It's A Bear Market

by Martin Pring

Monday may have been a successful test of the January low Five inter-market relationships break out The 5-year yield breaks down For the last two weeks I have been pointing out that several intermediate type indicators that have traditionally signaled rallies were in a bullish mode. The problem is that during bear markets prices do not generally behave in the way we would normally...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Deep Decline Clears Short-Term Overbought Conditions

by Erin Heim

No new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Last week's NDX PMO SELL signal gave us warning that large cap markets were losing momentum. Although the three PMO BUY signals remain on the SPX, OEX and INDU, a look at their charts will tell you we should expect SELL signals soon as the PMO readings have topped. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Three Big Sectors Hit New Lows for the Year

by Arthur Hill

There are nine sectors in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and their weights range from 2.82% (materials) to 20.17% (technology). The technology sector is around seven times bigger than the materials sector and this means that not all sectors affect the S&P 500 the same. Looking at the charts today, I noticed that three of the nine sector SPDRs were trading at new lows for 2016. These are the...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

U.S. Futures Looking To Extend Friday's Losses

by Tom Bowley

Special Note:  If you missed our joint webinar on Friday, Greg Schnell and I will be back at it and hosting another joint one hour webinar today.  We had a huge crowd on Friday and the two of us providing our own distinct views generated much interest.  The webinar is FREE and starts at Noon EST.  We'll provide our views on the crazy selling that's...  Read More

RRG Charts

Trouble in DIS(neyland) and renewed energy for XOM

by Julius de Kempenaer

Over the past few days I have been looking at the Relative Rotation Graph of the 30 Dow stocks and its individual charts, and quite frankly I don't even know where to begin. Big swings all over the place, from +6% in DD to -9% in MSFT and anything in between. Long tails and short tails, clusters of stocks rotating towards and into the leading quadrant and vice versa etc. etc. The RRG of  Read More

Sun, Feb 07

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Recreational Services Index Has A Bad Year......Last Week

by Tom Bowley

The Dow Jones U.S. Recreational Services Index ($DJUSRQ) fell more than 11% last week as traders completely ignored the consumer discretionary space (XLY).  The only industry group within consumer discretionary that performed worse was Business Training & Employment Agencies ($DJUSBE), which fell a staggering 28% on Friday after LinkedIn (LNKD) provided a very strong warning about 2016...  Read More

ChartWatchers

The Market is in a Classic Bull/Bear Battle Right Now

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Wow, people are all over the place with their emotions right now.  "Devastating Recession on the Way!"  "Strong Tech Earnings Lead to Rally Mode!"  "The Fed is Out to Kill the Economy!"  and my personal favorite "Head and Shoulders Top Imminent!" Let's calm down and back up a minute.  Read More

Sat, Feb 06

DecisionPoint

Breadth Anomalies

by Carl Swenlin

Some time ago I wrote an article featuring the 1% EMA (200EMA) of the S&P 500 Advance-Decline Ratio. My purpose was to point out the negative divergences (red lines) that occurred at major market tops in 2000 and 2007, as well as to show the current developing negative divergence. A sharp-eyed reader asked about the positive divergence (blue lines) that occurred between 2000 and 2002. I had...  Read More

ChartWatchers

Nasdaq May Be On Verge Of Breakdown

by John Murphy

It's never a good sign to see the Nasdaq leading the rest of the market lower, which it did this week. A -3% plunge on Friday (and a -5% loss for the week) made it the weakest of the major market indexes. Heavy selling in software and internet stocks were especially troubling. So is its chart pattern. The weekly bars in the chart below show the Nasdaq Composite bearing down on its January and...  Read More

ChartWatchers

In Rocky Times Earnings REALLY Matter

by John Hopkins

In the best of times companies see their stock prices rewarded or punished based on earnings results. Even when a company misses its earnings per share or revenue forecasts by just a small amount it can have a meaningful, negative impact on its stock price. But when the market is highly volatile and on pins and needles like the US market has been all year long, missing estimates or guiding  Read More

ChartWatchers

Materials SPDR (XLB) "Thrust" into BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

There has been renewed interest in the Percent Buy Index (PBI) ever since I spotlighted it during one of my webinars. The PBI is not related at all to the  Read More

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Market Message

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOLGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- NASDAQ UNDERPERFORMANCE IS A BAD SIGN

by John Murphy

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LEADS MARKET LOWER... It's never a good sign to see economically-sensitive stocks leading the market lower. That's because they're most closely tied to investor confidence (or lack therof) in the U.S. economy. But that's what happened this week. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) suffering its lowest close in a near. More...  Read More

ChartWatchers

What You Need To Know About Trading A Bear Market?

by Tom Bowley

There are no guarantees to this question, but we do have history and past technical indications to provide us a few guidelines.  Trading strategies applied during a bull market simply won't work during a bear market.  They may work on a few select industry groups and stocks, but the game has changed for most areas of the market and we have to change with it.  So let's start with  Read More

ChartWatchers

Is Anyone Helping You Find Strong Stocks In This Market?

by Greg Schnell

This bear market has ripped most portfolios apart. Some portfolios have been shredded. Recently, a money manager was on TV saying he really likes it when stocks are down this hard because there are so many bargains. I have two additional statements for that. He probably wishes he wasn't fully invested when it started falling, and he'll only be happy if the year 2016 ends higher, not lower...  Read More

ChartWatchers

Small-caps, Finance and Tech Weigh on Market

by Arthur Hill

After sharp declines the first two weeks of the year, the stock market turned into one mixed up beast the last three weeks. The PerfChart below shows three-week performance for the seven major index ETFs. All seven were down 6+ percent the first two weeks of the year, but four of the seven are up the last three weeks. These include the S&P 500 SPDR, S&P MidCap SPDR, EW S&P 500 ETF  Read More

Fri, Feb 05

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DecisionPoint Alert

Week in Review: NDX Fails First - New ITTM Neutral for the Dollar

by Erin Heim

Surprise, surprise...the Nasdaq 100 was the first failed PMO BUY signal. The rally on the NDX has been mostly unimpressive and because of that, positive momentum never really got going. I'll be looking at the Nasdaq 100 more closely during today's webinar, including the indicator charts in all three time frames for the NDX. If you missed it, the episode is in the  Read More

Wyckoff Power Charting

Point and Figure Pauses that Refresh

by Bruce Fraser

Uptrends occasionally need a rest. We call these price congestion areas Reaccumulation trading ranges. Wyckoffians seek these areas out as an opportunity to get onboard the uptrend. Point and Figure analysis for Reaccumulations follow the conventions outlined in prior posts, with some minor variations. There is great value in becoming familiar with counting Reaccumulations as they are the...  Read More

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Market Message

NASDAQ LEADS MARKET INTO BAD END FOR THE WEEK -- INTERNET-RELATED STOCKS LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOWER

by John Murphy

NASDAQ LEADS MARKET LOWER ... A 3% loss in the Nasdaq market is pulling the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index bearing down on last week's low. The Nasdaq/S&P 500 ratio (below chart) has plunged to the lowest level in a year. That's a bad sign for the Nasdaq and the rest of the market. Internet stocks are being hit especially hard. Amazon.com is down...  Read More

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Art's Charts

Staples Under Pressure - Weight of Evidence - Beta vs Quality - Gold-Dollar-Yen

by Arthur Hill

Even Consumer Staples are Under Pressure    //    Bulk of the Evidence is Bearish    //    Stocks Stall within Downtrends    //    Breadth Indicators Remain Bearish    //    High Beta Stocks Continue to Underperform    //    T-Bond ETFs Extend Uptrends    //    Big Move in  Read More

The Traders Journal

My Pal Warren on the 10 Stages of Investing

by Gatis Roze

I'm a big fan of pithy quotes.  When I teach my college class "Tensile Trading", I use quotes extensively to help illustrate each of the essential 10 stages of stock market mastery.  This week, I thought I'd have a guest blogger share his wisdom with respect to each of my ten elements for successful investing.  These are some of my favorite quotes from Warren Buffett. Money...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

I'll Be On Trading Places With Tom Bowley At 12 Noon EST

by Greg Schnell

I'll be teaming up with Tom Bowley today at 12 Noon EST on Trading Places Live. Click here to register. Trading Places Live 20160205. Tom's trading style is active and momentum based. I'll introduce some new ideas I see in the Commodity sector. Here is one example.  This chart as not broken out yet, but...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

I'll Be On Trading Places With Tom Bowley Today at 12 Noon EST

by Greg Schnell

Tom Bowley and I are teaming up to do the Trading Places Webinar at 12 Noon EST. Click here to register. Trading Places 20160205. There are some trend changes to talk about with some new industry rotation showing up on the charts. As an example, how about a break above a trend line going back to 2012? See you  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Is The Keystone Pipeline Finally Behind TransCanada Pipelines?

by Greg Schnell

After a brutal beatdown from the politicians about pipelines, TransCanada Pipelines (TRP) stock has started to demonstrate a change in trend. From a continuous decline starting in September 2014 (near oil's high), TransCanada has recently made a 5-month high. With an SCTR ranking above 75, this is really starting to outperform its peers. One particularly strong trait is the  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Tumbling Dollar Benefits Basic Materials

by Tom Bowley

Special Note:  I have joined Greg Schnell, "The Canadian Technician", in Phoenix, AZ for a few days and Greg will be hosting my Trading Places LIVE webinar both today and Monday.  Greg will offer up his latest thoughts on commodities, which have been on fire, and we'll have a lively discussion about where the stock market is likely headed.  The...  Read More

Thu, Feb 04

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Disney Teetering At Critical Support

by Tom Bowley

First, it's not helping that the consumer discretionary sector is down more than 10% over the past three months.  This sector weakness has manifested itself in a very weak three month performance in Walt Disney (DIS) shares, which have fallen more than 15%.  Currently, DIS trades near a critical price support zone from 90-95 and its relative strength vs. the S&P 500 is closing in  Read More

DecisionPoint

Kohls and Ralph Lauren Take Out Support

by Erin Heim

I generally do not review stocks in the DecisionPoint blog, but the Consumer Discretionary sector took a hit today, most notably Kohls Department Stores (KSS) and Ralph Lauren Polo brand (RL). These two stocks had the misfortune to miss their revenues by a great deal today. However, even had this not been the case, as Arthur Hill discussed today in the  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Rally Not Dead Yet - Dollar Tanking

by Erin Heim

Momentum remains positive on the SPY and the indexes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. What we look for next is a change in the short-term trend. It will take a 5-EMA positive crossover the 20-EMA to generate that "green arrow". This will be difficult given 5-EMAs have been pointed down for some time. However, they are turning back up with today's extension of the rally.  Read More

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