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Using the Measured Move Technique for Citigroup

by Arthur Hill

Citigroup (C) is leading the Financials SPDR (XLF) lower with a lower high in September and a rising wedge break in October. The chart shows weekly bars for Citigroup over the last three years. The stock led the market higher in 2016 and 2017 with a gain exceeding 100% from low to high. This big bank turned into a laggard in 2018 because it never challenged its January high and formed a lower  Read More

Here's What To Expect Going Forward And It May Not Be Pretty Short-Term

by Tom Bowley

Special Note I will be joining John Hopkins, President of EarningsBeats.com, for a special webinar later this afternoon at 4:30pm EST.  I will be discussing my trading strategy during a volatile market like the one we have now, including some tips and tricks to manage risk during these crazy gyrations.  I'll also be sharing my latest Strong Earnings ChartList, which has been trimmed  Read More

Sector in Focus: NIFTY Pharma ($CNXPHARMA): Looking at a trend reversal after multi-year downtrend

by Milan Vaishnav

Nifty Pharmaceutical Index - NIFTYPHARMA  ($CNXPHARMA) marked its high at 14,020 on 6th of April 2015 and since then it has remained in a falling channel under a corrective downtrend which has lasted over 3 years. After remaining in a corrective downtrend for over 3 years, it has shown signs of a trend reversal. The Relative Strength (RS) when compared against the broader Market Index  Read More

Oil Looks Weak 2018-10-19 Video CC

by Greg Schnell

In a rocky week for the markets, the indexes managed to make a higher low so far. In the Commodity space, oil looks weak and some of the corresponding ETF's are starting to break trend lines. In the top panel, the Exploration and production ETF (XOP) has broken back below the 10 week moving average. It has not broken a trend line yet. I stopped the trend line on the oil chart just short so  Read More

Sector Relative Performance Suggesting Caution, Not Bear Market

by Tom Bowley

There are plenty of reasons why we should be cautious given the current market environment, but I'm not in the camp that believes we've entered a bear market.  It's simply too early to make that call, in my opinion.  Most corrections and bear markets begin similarly, with expanding volatility and fear, short-term price breakdowns and rotation from aggressive areas of the market  Read More

DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard Tells the Story

by Erin Swenlin

If you've explored the member dashboard, read a DP Alert or checked into the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery, you are likely familiar with our DecisionPoint Scoreboards for the SPX, OEX, INDU and NDX. What you may not have uncovered was our DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard. Carl assembled a table that not only shows you intermediate-term and long-term buy/sell signals, but also includes the  Read More

Headwinds

by Bruce Fraser

Headwinds have been forming for the stock market. Point and Figure counts (PnF) have been signaling where these opposing forces to higher stock prices were likely to emerge. Stocks have reacted downward with authority after hitting these PnF targets. Let's review, and bring current, some of these prior chart studies. Possibly they can provide a glimpse of what is ahead for the stock market  Read More

Energy Sector XLE - Black Gold Going Cold?

by Greg Schnell

The setting couldn't be more climactic. Oil, seems to be generating attention from the world through Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, pipelines, global slowdown, trade pressures with China, EU issues in Germany and Italy, Brexit, Steel tariffs and the list goes on. The world's awareness is always high. This week, the chart arrives at a critical point again. Oil closed the week testing the 3  Read More

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S&P 500 RETESTS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE AND TWO-YEAR SUPPORT LINE -- VOLUME PATTERN HASN'T BEEN ENCOURAGING

by John Murphy

S&P 500 CONTINUES TO TEST MAJOR SUPPORT LINES After a rebound attempt on Tuesday, stocks ended the week pretty much where they started, but on the defensive. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 Large Cap Index closing Friday right on its 200-day average (red line). The green trendline is drawn under previous lows starting in February 2016. Needless to  Read More

Sector Shuffle: Explaining The New XLC and XLRE Additions And Historical Data Calculations

by Grayson Roze

Editor's Note: This article was prepared jointly by Julius de Kempenaer and Arthur Hill with assistance from members of the StockCharts data and business teams. You may have noticed that in September, a lot was written about the changes in sector classifications that were implemented after the close on the 21st by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the company that maintains and  Read More

Volatility and rollovers to dominate the coming week; These sectors could relatively out-perform

by Milan Vaishnav

Though the week that went by saw lot of volatility, it remained particularly fruitless for the Markets. What was gained in the week before was given back this week. There was enough room for the Markets to pullback up to 10700. This week saw the levels of 10710 being tested but it was precisely from this mark that the NIFTY saw a sharp corrective bout. The benchmark Index ended the week  Read More

Big Sectors Weigh as Defensive Sectors Buck the Selling Pressure

by Arthur Hill

One of my favorite methods for analyzing the sector SPDRs is with CandleGlance charts sorted by the Rate-of-Change indicator to rank performance. This is a great way to quickly separate the leaders from the laggards and analyze short-term price action. The charts below show the 11 sector SPDRs and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) with the 15-day Rate-of-Change, which covers the month of October. The  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Yet? Waiting for Retest. Gold New BUY Signal.

by Carl Swenlin

Despite a great rally on Tuesday, a sharp decline on Thursday took it all back, and the market finished the week barely changed. This was an options expiration week, so I think that probably had something to do with it. As of last week, I was expecting some chop in preparation for a retest of last week's low. Well, we got the chop, but I think the retest is yet to come, probably next week. We  Read More

10/19 MWL Recap: What's Hot, What's Not - DP Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

Fortis (FTS) Starts To Move

by Greg Schnell

Fortis is a North American utility company that is set up quite nicely here. The annual dividend is 4%  and the quarterly payment is due in November. This chart intrigues me because the setup across a lot of the pipeline and utility charts is similar. The Relative Strength is breaking a one year down trend. The SCTR ranking has been improving for the last three months and is now at 52  Read More

The Three Dow Averages Are Giving Bearish Messages

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in  John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, October 18th at 5:00pm ET. My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the  Read More

Can Strong Earnings Provide a Safe Haven into Year End?

by John Hopkins

The market has been under fire for the past two weeks. Volatility has spiked. Traders have bailed as they've sold on rallies. Bad news is bad news. Good news is bad news. No one wants to touch stocks! We can take a look at Netflix as a great example of the mindset of traders at the moment as it reported strong earnings, gapped up sharply on strong volume then a day later gave all those gains  Read More

Major New S&P Sectors and Realignments: Biggest ChartPack Update Ever (Q3, 2018)

by Gatis Roze

Ladies and Gentlemen: the most significant shakeup in sector classifications within the past decade has just occurred. Two of the world's biggest index providers - Standard & Poor's (S&P) and MSCI, Inc. - have reorganized critical sector indexes. It's a good time to take stock of what you really own so you know which team to cheer for.  Some of your favorite teams  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Dow Theory and Primary Trends

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. Correlations and Volatility Rise. Scanning and Measuring Participation. Bulk of the Evidence Remains Bearish. S&P 500 Battles 200-day. Dow Theory and Trends. Healthcare and Utilities Hold Up. Software, Defense and Health-related ETFs. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList.   Correlations and Volatility Rise The major index ETFs were  Read More

A Consumer Discretionary Group Has Been Sending Warning Signs For Two Years

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, October 18, 2018 Impulsive selling seemed to return to Wall Street on Thursday as the Dow Jones had a couple of intraday bouts where the index declined 200-300 points in just an hour or so.  That sent the Volatility Index ($VIX, +15.29%) scurrying higher once again and avoided - for the bears' benefit - a VIX drop below the 16 level.  That's been a  Read More

10/18 MWL Recap: Julius de Kempenaer on "Red Flags" - Sound Off

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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THE THREE DOW AVERAGES ARE GIVING BEARISH MESSAGES -- THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE FALLING THE FASTEST

by John Murphy

THE DOW RETESTS 200-DAY LINE My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the heavy selling that's taken place during October, my weekend message showed a number of serious negative divergences showing up on the market's weekly and monthly charts. Yesterday's  Read More

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Four Areas To Watch For A Possible Bear Market Trigger

by Martin Pring

Internet bubble Credit spreads Rising interest rates Contagion from abroad On Wednesday, I joined Tom and Erin on MarketWatchers LIVE and enjoyed a spirited discussion on what signs might foreshadow an extension to last week's decline, or even signal a bear market. The four areas I cited were the internet bubble, credit problems, higher interest rates and international contagion  Read More

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SystemTrader - Reducing Moving Average Whipsaws with Smoothing and Quantifying Filters.

by Arthur Hill

Trading SPY with S&P 500 Signals. Long and Long-Short Backtests. Smoothing to Reduce Whipsaws. Testing Different SMA Combinations. Bollinger Bands, Envelopes and Keltners. Backtesting the Filters. Final Thoughts and a Suggestion. Introduction Yesterday I put the 200-day SMA through the wringer with some testing using the S&P 500 and various indexes. Today I will  Read More

Financials Continue To Bounce Off Support, Market Choppy

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, October 17, 2018 There was a lot of back and forth action in our major indices on Wednesday.  For instance, in the span of just 2 1/2 hours, the Dow Jones lost more than 300 points, then recovered them all, moving slightly into positive territory.  After a couple hours of sideways, less volatile action, the Dow Jones began to weaken and finished lower by 92  Read More

Is the bond market sending us a message?

by Julius de Kempenaer

When markets are in transition and the bigger picture needs our attention it is always good to keep an eye on the yield curve. The absolute yield levels of the various maturities on the curve, starting at 3-Months all the way out to 20+ years are important to monitor. But what's probably even more important to monitor is the change of the shape of the curve. Relative Rotation Graphs can be of  Read More

DP Alert: Sector Signal Scoreboard Pocked with New Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

A mere two weeks ago, the Sector Signal Scoreboard (2nd slide below) was all "green" as each sector was on IT Trend Model BUY signals. The DP Scoreboards below were completely green at the beginning of September. Today both are dotted with Neutral signals (and some SELL signals in the case of the DP Scoreboards below). Most importantly, the only three sectors holding their BUY signals? The  Read More

10/17 MWL Recap: Martin Pring's Current Market Outlook - Anatomy of a Trade

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

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HEALTHCARE HAS BECOME THE YEAR' STRONGEST SECTOR -- AND IS BEING LED HIGHER BY DRUG STOCKS

by John Murphy

DEFENSIVE HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD Healthcare has emerged as the market's strongest sector. Not only has healthcare been the market's strongest sector over the last month, the last three months, and the last six months. It's now the top performer for the year. Its relative strength ratio (top box in Chart 1) has now risen to the highest level in more than two years. That's  Read More

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October is Different from February

by Arthur Hill

The 200-day SMA acts as a benchmark we can use to compare price movements. We can use the 200-day SMA to compare the current decline in the S&P 500 against past declines. We can also use the 200-day SMA to compare the decline in the S&P 500 with declines in the other key indexes. For example, indexes still below the 200-day are lagging the S&P 500. With this in mind, I will compare  Read More

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SystemTrader - Testing and Flirting with the 200-day Moving Average

by Arthur Hill

A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? Ranges Wreak Havoc on Moving Average Systems. Backtesting Five Indexes. More Whipsaws than Strong Trends. Other Uses for the 200-day SMA The S&P 500 broke its 200-day SMA with a sharp decline last Thursday and then rebounded over the last three days to reclaim this hallowed level. Can we now sound the all clear? Before looking into the evidence, let's  Read More

Dow Jones Gains Over 500 On Strong Earnings

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, October 16, 2018 Wall Street welcomed a trend day to at least temporarily pause the violent downtrend we've experienced the past couple weeks.  A trend day typically starts with a gap higher and then gains are extended throughout the session.  We clearly saw that as the Dow Jones finished with a gain of 547 points, or 2.17%.  Money rotated back towards  Read More

Momentum - Rate of Change

by Greg Morris

Too often I see a basic misunderstanding between Momentum, Rate of Change, and Price Difference.  Let me try to make it clear.  They are essentially the same thing. Momentum Momentum deals with the rate at which prices are changing, kind of like acceleration and deceleration. Here is the formula for momentum : (Close / Close n periods ago) x  Read More

Markets are cracking. Is it just another dip or are we witnessing a bigger event in the making?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The general market conditions for the various major indexes have been commented on extensively by other commentators here on the site. There is no doubt that there is more rumble in the markets now than we have seen for a long time. IMHO this makes it an interesting time for analysts and investors alike and a good thing to do, as Greg Schnell pointed out nicely in his  Read More

This Entertainment Leader is Still Crushing It

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since early July and pierced its 200-day moving average last week. Chartists looking for stocks that held up better during this decline can use these levels for comparison. Stocks that did not break below their August lows and 200-day moving averages held up better and show relative "chart" strength. The chart below shows Activision Blizzard (ATVI) with  Read More

Welcome to 'Analyzing India'!

by Milan Vaishnav

I seize this opportunity to welcome you all to this Blog "Analyzing India". It is beyond all doubts that India remains one of the most important global markets. Out of all the Emerging Markets (EMs), the world's largest democracy certainly remains the most promising one. As a brief introduction, I have been analyzing Indian Capital Markets for over 15 years. Working as a Independent Technical  Read More

Irrational Exuberance? Yes - OEX Loses IT Trend Model BUY Despite Rally

by Erin Swenlin

This morning on MarketWatchers LIVE, Tom and I were very cautious regarding today's rally. John Murphy and Arthur Hill are bearish. Carl is undecided but erring on the side of caution. So it was somewhat surprising and cause for a chuckle to see and hear the ridiculously excited big network commentators trumpeting today's rally and calling the end of the correction. Digging into the  Read More

10/16 MWL Recap: "Big Picture Indicators" - Intermarket Analysis

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the YouTube  Read More

Revlon Makes A Base For A Fourth Quarter Makeover

by Greg Schnell

Revlon (REV) showed up on the 52 week high scan today. On the chart there were some intra-week moves to higher levels but based on close only daily data, Revlon is pushing up. What is really important is the relative strength of Revlon. While the overall market was dropping quickly, Revlon stock was being bought up. The Relative Strength area chart in purple shows new 52 week highs as  Read More

Introducing Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA and "Analyzing India"

by Grayson Roze

It is my distinct pleasure to welcome Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA to the StockCharts family. As our newest contributing author, Milan will be sharing his analysis of the Indian markets each week through the "Analyzing India" blog. We are thrilled to have Milan on board and  Read More