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Market Stays in Trading Channel - Short-Term Indicators on the Rise

by Erin Heim

The market is sleep walking sideways within the same relatively thin trading channel it has been in since the final Trump rally subsided. The so-called Trump rally was unable to bring the SPX, OEX and INDU PMOs into a positive crossover. In fact, their PMOs continue to decline with the exception of the NDX. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review  Read More

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ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND STEEL STOCKS HAVE A STRONG DAY -- LEADERS ARE CENTURY ALUMINUM, SOUTHERN COPPER, NUCOR AND US STEEL

by John Murphy

CENTURY ALUMINUM LEADS THAT GROUP HIGHER... Aluminum stocks are leading a rally in the materials group. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Aluminum Index surging to the highest level in eighteen months. Chart 2 shows Century Aluminum (CENX) looking pretty much the same. Alcoa (AA) is also having a strong day. Copper and steel stocks are also having a  Read More

BroadCom Holds Gap Zone and Resumes Breakout

by Arthur Hill

BroadCom (AVGO) is showing upside leadership again with a flag breakout last week and a 2% surge today. Overall, the stock advanced to a 52-week high in August and then embarked on a long consolidation. A large symmetrical triangle formed as the stock traded flat from September to early December. The bigger trend was clearly up during this consolidation and a consolidation within an uptrend is...  Read More

Tobacco Smokes On Tuesday To Lead Consumer Staples

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 17, 2017 Money rotated towards defense on Tuesday as our major indices saw a day of profit taking.  The small cap Russell 2000 was hit particularly hard, dropping 1.44%.  But all of the key indices were lower as the banks' failure to break out on heavy volume Friday came back to haunt them yesterday.  The Dow Jones U.S. Banks  Read More

Walgreens Boots Alliance Kicks Up WBA

by Greg Schnell

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has recently pushed above a breakout level and then pulled back to retest. Today, the stock looks ready to breakout above the previous resistance shown in red again. Thinks looks like an important area to watch. If defensive stocks start to accelerate, this is well positioned to be one of the first to break out. The MACD is bouncing close to the zero line after...  Read More

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Is It Time To Emphasize Overseas Equities?

by Martin Pring

Gauging the trend between the US and the rest of the world Relative performance of the US is largely dependent on the direction of the Dollar Special K is close to a relative sell signal for the US What does "The rest of the world" look like? A few comments on Gold Gauging the trend between the US and the rest of the world Since the depth of the financial crisis there have  Read More

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Trading Channel Traffic Continues - Gold Breaks Out!

by Erin Heim

The market was down slightly today, so no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Gold broke out today and GLD gapped up. I'll cover those in the section on Gold near the end of this blog article. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR  Read More

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Webinar Video - QQQ and its Top Components Lead - 5 Sectors within 2% of 52-week Highs - XLF and XLI Extend Consolidations

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps Pull back after Big Surge .... SPY Stalls Near 52-week High .... QQQ and its Top Components Lead .... Five Sectors within 2% of 52-week Highs .... Consumer Discretionary and Materials Hold Breakouts .... Finance and Industrials Extend High-Level Consolidations .... Healthcare is the Most Challenging Sector .... Utilities and Staples Remains the Laggards .... //// ....  ----  Read More

Is The Market Topping or Just Starting?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, January 13, 2017 Friday may have seemed like a ho-hum kinda day as the Dow Jones actually finished with a loss for the session.  But there was significant strength in both the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000, not to mention that the four sector leaders were financials (XLF, +0.56%), industrials (XLI, +0.38%), consumer discretionary (XLY...  Read More

Is JNJ the pink elephant in the XLV room?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the constituents of the XLV (Health Care) ETF. In this post, I want to follow up on my previous article which pointed at the potential rotation from Financials into Health Care and take a look at the relative rotation of...  Read More

Fewer New Highs, but Even Fewer New Lows

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows the High-Low Line for the S&P 500, new highs/lows as a histogram, and the S&P 500. Notice that new highs exceeded 50 several times from mid November to mid December. This showed good internal strength because over 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 were hitting new highs. New highs have since dwindled and did not surpass 50 since December 12th. This shows less  Read More

We May See Major Resistance Test On 10 Year Treasury Yield In 2017

by Tom Bowley

Banks threatened another breakout on Friday before stalling and dropping after an early morning surge higher.  Bank of America (BAC) credited higher interest rates for its earnings beat Friday morning and said it was anticipating significantly higher net interest margins in 2017.  So how much higher will the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) move?  Well.....technically, it's easy for...  Read More

Enjoying the Short Term View

by Bruce Fraser

Wyckoff has a fractal quality, and thus, the Method essentially works in all timeframes. The trained eye can see the price structures unfolding whether it be on a weekly vertical chart or the shortest term intra-day chart. Let us see if we can drill into the shorter timeframe and find a nuanced interpretation of the current market from the intraday data. After a robust advance in the aftermath  Read More

Market Action Changes Our Focus

by Carl Swenlin

At the close of the prior week, a breakout from a flag formation had us questioning if the market was too overbought for the breakout to lead to higher prices. My conclusion was that there was plenty of room to the upside before our indicators got uncomfortably overbought. Brilliant! Unfortunately, there was no followthrough on the breakout at all, and the market just dribbled sideways for a...  Read More

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SMALL CAPS RECOVER FROM THURSDAY SELLOFF TO KEEP SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE INTACT -- NASDAQ RISES TO NEW RECORDS

by John Murphy

SMALL CAPS SURVIVE TEST OF SUPPORT... The stock market continues to trade sideways within the context of an overall uptrend. The fact that small caps stabilized at week's end is an encouraging sign (because they often lead larger stocks). At one point Thursday morning, the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) traded briefly at the lowest level in a month as major stock averages...  Read More

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Weekly Chart Review - Market in Holding Pattern

by Erin Heim

Today we'll review the weekly charts in addition to the daily charts. The DecisionPoint Scoreboard didn't change. Weekly charts showed no new signals for the four major indexes. If you would like a peek at the Scoreboard daily, weekly and monthly charts, bookmark the DecisionPoint LIVE Shared ChartList here. You'll find all of...  Read More

The Drip Of The Dollar $USD- Webinar Skim 2017-01-12

by Greg Schnell

The dollar has been working its way lower and that has helped some commodities like Gold and Copper move higher. Oil has wobbled sideways and closed slightly lower since the Dollar made its high on January 1st. The commodities have had a raging trade in some other areas like Uranium related stocks and Rare Earth Metal stocks. However, the parts of the Commodities markets that were...  Read More

Mastercard Taps New Highs (MA)

by Greg Schnell

Mastercard (MA) does not seem to be impaired with the slowdown in the retail stocks. This chart is bottom left to top right! Today, Mastercard pushed to new highs and at time of writing was just off the highs. With the SCTR above 75, price breaking to new highs, and the momentum shown on the MACD turning up, this looks strong. The volume has been a lot stronger in previous years, but the setup...  Read More

How You Know You Are Part of Our Investor Club

by Gatis Roze

Groucho Marx first said it and Woody Allen repeated the famous line "I'd never join a club that would allow a person like me to become a member."  As an independent trader, I'm part of an informal loose-knit group of investors who do what I do, tend to think like I think and possess many of the same traders' "ticks" as I possess.  We are a circle of friends who don't commingle funds  Read More

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Weekly Recap Video - A Pretty Normal Uptrend - QQQ Leads - Oil Grinds Higher - XLE and XES Correct within Uptrends

by Arthur Hill

-----   Weekly Recap Video   -----   Art's Charts ChartList    -----      Weekly Recap Video .... A Pretty Normal Uptrend .... QQQ is Leading the Broader Market .... Small-caps Take a Rest .... Oil Continues to Grind Higher .... Energy SPDR...  Read More

Bank Profits Soar, Travel Stocks Ready To Fly?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, January 12, 2017 Healthcare (XLV, +0.10%) and utilities (XLU, +0.08%) finished in positive territory and provided sector leadership on Thursday, but the remaining sectors and all of our major indices finished the day in negative territory.  Financial stocks (XLF, -0.85%) performed worst as aggressive components like banks ($DJUSBK) and life...  Read More

Rydex Cashflow Ratio Sentiment: Putting Money Where the Mouth Is

by Erin Heim

Carl Swenlin wrote back in a July 2014 an in-depth  article about the Rydex Cashflow and Asset Ratios. His explanation of sentiment in relation to the Rydex.  Read More

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More Consolidation for the SPY - New Trading Range for Oil?

by Erin Heim

The established trading range on the SPY continues to hold tight as price begins to move toward support. The NDX remains strongest in the shorter term on the DP Scoreboards with the Dow Industrials leading in longer term.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad  Read More

Healthcare Stock Pre-Reports Strong Results, Breaks Out

by Tom Bowley

Stryker Corporation (SYK), a medical technology company, preliminarily reported their latest quarterly results and indicated they'd be ahead of expectations.  That announcement resulted in a gap up and breakout above previous price resistance on Wednesday.  Over the past couple days, we've seen a bit of selling that could provide a short-term buying opportunity as both price...  Read More

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SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P SHOWS NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

by John Murphy

SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND WEAKENS... It looks like the Dow probably won't reach the 20K on this attempt. That's because of weaker market action in other stock indexes. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) starting to roll over to the downside after touching a record high last week. Unfortunately, that price high wasn't confirmed by the 14-day RSI line (top of chart)...  Read More

Dollar Weakness Aiding Gold And Silver.....For Now

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 12, 2017 The U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) fell for the fourth time in the past six trading sessions after sideways consolidating for a couple weeks prior.  This hesitation and recent profit taking has provided fuel for a rebound in gold ($GOLD) and silver ($SILVER) prices.  I believe this sudden turn will be short-term in nature  Read More

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Fab Five Look Strong - Healthcare SPDR Falls on Yuge Volume - Watching MACD on Gold and Bonds for a Reversal

by Arthur Hill

QQQ Closes near another 52-week High .... Fab Five Holding Strong .... HealthCare SPDR Falls on Huge Volume .... Biotech ETFs Test Breakout Zones .... ITB Still Setting Up Bullish .... Watching MACD for a Reversal in Gold .... A Precarious Bounce for Treasury Bonds ... ChartList Update  .... //// ....  QQQ closed at...  Read More

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Resistance at All-Time Highs Holds

by Erin Heim

Oil had a good day and according to most reports was responsible for the slight rise in the market. Overall we are getting more consolidation beneath resistance at all-time highs. No changes on the DP Scoreboards today.   The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market  Read More

Energy Stocks Pop, Drop, Fizzle, Fizz - Webinar Skim 2017-01-10

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian Energy ETF ( XEG.TO) made one month lows this week with oil just slightly off the highs. Some of the big leaders have started to pull back as well. Seven Generations Energy (VII.TO) is a great example. Some of Canada's other sectors are at critical junctures. The Income Trusts and the REIT's are both checking resistance at the 200 DMA from...  Read More

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FINDING THE RIGHT LONG-TERM TRENDLINE FOR THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- NEXT UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE 10-YEAR YIELD IS 3%

by John Murphy

WHICH TRENDLINE IS BILL GROSS REFERRING TO... I've heard a lot this week about Bill Gross' prediction that a move by the 10-Year Treasury yield above 2.6% would end the secular bull market in bonds. Part of his reasoning is that a rise above 2.6% would break a falling resistance line going back to the 1980s. Since I'm always skeptical when the media starts using technical analysis, I...  Read More

A High and Tight Consolidation for IWM

by Arthur Hill

After a big surge from early November to early December, the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) moved into a tight trading range the last four weeks. Chartists should watch the resolution of this trading range for the next directional clue. The chart shows Bollinger Bands confirming a volatility contraction as the bands narrowed significantly. We can measure the distance between the bands using the...  Read More

Airlines Jump On Lower Crude Oil Prices

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 10, 2017 It was another bifurcated market day on Tuesday, but under the surface there was much more bullishness than on Monday.  For one, six sectors rose instead of one.  Secondly, all of the aggressive sectors gained ground, led by industrials (XLI, +0.42%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.36%).  Healthcare (XLV, +0.35%),  Read More

Pointing To A BioTech Breakout In XBI?

by Greg Schnell

XBI, IBB, SBIO and numerous other Biotech ETF's have surged the first few days of the new year. They all look set to breakout so you might want to tune your eyes into the area for at least a few interesting charts. I thought the last two times were also going to break free, but the new year, new start might be just enough to get it done this time. The SCTR is already above 90, so there is  Read More

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Quiet Day - USO Triggers ST Trend Model Neutral Signal

by Erin Heim

The SPY was unchanged today on below-average volume. The NDX closed higher on the day, continuing to decouple from the other major indexes which experienced declines (or no change like SPX). The equal-weight Healthcare ETF (RYH) joined the rest of the sectors on the Market/Sector Summary posture table with a new BUY signal. I'll discuss that chart below the table. The purpose of  Read More

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Is The Pound About To Head For Parity With The Dollar?

by Martin Pring

Long-term perspective The short-term picture The Pound against other major currencies Watch that gold! Long-term perspective Last October, I wrote an article entitled "British Pound Headed For Par, But Not Now". The long-term case rested on the fact that the Pound, when measured against the Dollar, had completed a 30-year top. The price objective, calculated  Read More

NASDAQ Breaks Out, Still Waiting On Dow

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, January 9, 2017 Dow 20k watchers were left hanging another day as the NASDAQ was the only major index to gain ground on Monday.  And speaking of lone leaders, healthcare (XLV, +0.42%) was the only sector to post a gain as falling crude oil prices ($WTIC) sent energy shares (XLE, -1.48%) reeling to only their second close beneath their rising 20 day...  Read More

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Webinar Video - SPY/QQQ Get Oversold Bounces, but IJR Falls - Healthcare Leads the New Year - Housing and Retail Off to Rough Start

by Arthur Hill

-----   Webinar Video   -----   Art's Charts ChartList (updated 10-Jan)    -----      QQQ and SPY Get Oversold Bounces .... IJR Fails to Hold Breakout .... Healthcare Leads in 2017 ....  Read More

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IT Indicators Turn Back Down - STTM Neutral Signal on Dollar

by Erin Heim

After garnering two new BUY signals, the NDX continued to power forward. The other indexes didn't have it so good today. The SPY which had broken out to new all-time highs, sank below support today. I'll go over the UUP Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal in the section on the Dollar at the end of this blog.   The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to  Read More

Trading the Small Caps

by Martha Stokes

Outstanding Shares and Momentum Runs Most Retail Traders only trade big cap stocks. This is because they depend mostly on news for finding stocks to trade. It can also be due to relying upon Industry or Sector selections, often missing out on the underlying stocks that are moving with momentum but are not a major index component.  However with the power of StockCharts.com...  Read More

Copper Hits Key Fibonacci Level after Shallow Pullback

by Arthur Hill

The Copper ETN (JJC) broke out with a big surge in October-November and then pulled back in December. This pullback looks like a normal correction after a big move and chartists should be alert for a continuation higher. The weekly chart shows JJC and the Copper Continuous Futures Contract ($COPPER) basing from November 2015 until October 2016 and then breaking base resistance with a strong  Read More