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There are No Free Lunches

by Bruce Fraser

As this year comes to an end, investors and traders begin thinking about the year ahead. Wyckoff as a tape reading process is concerned with what the current position indicates about the future direction of markets. Ideally Wyckoffians develop their tape reading skills (chart analysis) to a level where market opinions are stripped away and replaced with an unbiased assessment of conditions...  Read More

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Short-Term Indicators at Top of Range - Weekly PMO BUY Signal for SPY

by Erin Heim

The SPY captured a new intermediate-term (weekly) PMO BUY signal. Not surprisingly, the SPX and OEX followed suit. Looking at the DP Scoreboards below, only the NDX has failed to grab the same IT PMO signal. I'll direct you to my DecisionPoint LIVE Shared ChartList to see all of these charts. In the meantime, I have included  Read More

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NASDAQ 100 NEARS NEW RECORD -- IT'S BEING HELPED BY REBOUNDS IN APPLE, GOOGLE, AND INTEL

by John Murphy

POWERSHARES QQQ NEARS NEW RECORD... A lot has been made recently about domestic-oriented American businesses leading the market rally (like small caps, retailers, and transports to name a few). And how large tech stocks have gone from market leaders to market laggards. Technology companies derive nearly two-thirds of their earnings from abroad. That may help explain why larger tech  Read More

CF Industries Starts The Run

by Greg Schnell

I put up CF Industries on an RRG Chart and saw it just soaring. Here is a link to the live chart. That CF chart also looks beautiful in a StockCharts SharpChart.  The stock is still half price to what it was a year ago, suggesting there is more room to...  Read More

A Tool to Uncover Your Personal Risk / Reward Profile

by Gatis Roze

Far too many investors get it wrong, and perhaps no other group more so than the Millennials.  In a recent cover page article on the investing habits of the Millennial generation, IBD reported that Index ETFs are the investment vehicles of choice for these 19 -35 year olds.  I maintain that this is foolish and simply the result of the young investors not being aware of the powerful...  Read More

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SystemTrader - Testing and Tweaking a Mean-Reversion System for SPY, QQQ and IJR

by Arthur Hill

SystemTrader .... An RSI Mean-Reversion System .... Setting Market Conditions .... System Rules .... Why 5-day RSI and 30/70? .... The Four Backtests .... Key Performance Metrics .... Test Tables: Buy Cross Above/Below 30 and Sell Cross Above/Below 70.... Conclusions - IJR is King .... Further Study .... ////    ........     Testing and Tweaking RSI(5) with  Read More

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What Can We Learn From Recent Gold Price Action About Where Commodity Prices Are Headed?

by Martin Pring

Using Gold as a barometer for commodity prices Gold versus other precious metals Gold and the stock market Earlier in the week I wrote an article pointing out the fact that the Gold price ($GOLD), technically speaking, had reached, what seemed to me, to be a critical technical point. That was because it had fallen below some key long-term moving averages. Furthermore...  Read More

Transports And Financials Lifting Dow Jones Near 20000

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, December 8, 2016 The Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN) finished higher once again on Thursday and has now risen more than 4% this week.   In addition, the TRAN has climbed 16.7% since the close on November 4th.  It's been an amazing run for a group of mostly slow movers that had been locked in a fairly narrow 10% range...  Read More

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Market Decelerates After Yesterday's Explosive Rally

by Erin Heim

No new DecisionPoint Scoreboard updates to report today. The market continued to rise, albeit not as explosive as yesterday.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that  Read More

Measuring An Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout

by Tom Bowley

It took two months of consolidation, but Cabot Corp (CBT) finally pulled it off.  It cleared neckline resistance in its inverse head & shoulders pattern at the 52.50 level.  One of the keys of any continuation pattern is that it requires a prior trend in place to continue.  CBT trended higher throughout July, August and September and then its SCTR ranking channeled lower as  Read More

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EURO IS IN DANGER OF DROPPING TO 14-YEAR LOW -- THE FALLING EURO, HOWEVER, IS PUSHING EUROZONE STOCKS HIGHER

by John Murphy

EURO FALLS ON ECB... The ECB had some good and bad news for the Euro today. The ECB offered to extend its bond buying program for an additional nine months after next March. But it also announced that it was reducing the amount of bond purchases. The market interpreted the mixed message as somewhat dovish and sold the Euro. The 1% drop in the Euro is our main focus today. The daily bars  Read More

Rallies Don't Get Any Stronger Than This One

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, December 7, 2016 Money  poured into risk yesterday as global markets rallied in anticipation of strengthening economies worldwide.  Here in the U.S., nearly every single industry group pushed higher, many of them 1%-2% higher or more.  Significant leadership came in the form of consumer discretionary (XLY,  Read More

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Equal-weights Lead - Stock Supply Shrinks - IJR > IWM - QQQ Surges after RSI Signal - Charting the Fab Five - 4 Homebuilder Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Equal-weights are Leading Large-caps .... IJR is Greater than IWM .... Supply of Stocks Continues to Shrink .... QQQ Surges within Uptrend .... Trailing the Bull Flag Breakout in IWM .... Charting the Fab Five (FB, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT) .... Leadership from Consumer Discretionary is Very Positive .... Four Homebuilder Stocks to Watch (DHI, KBH, LEN, PHM).... //// ....      ...  Read More

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Rally Fireworks - TLT Generates New PMO BUY Signal - ST BUY Signals Finally Arrive for NDX

by Erin Heim

Fireworks, indeed. The markets soared today and consequently, the NDX finally was able to shed its bearish short-term signals. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which generated the ST Trend Model BUY signal and the PMO crossed above its signal line which triggered the PMO BUY signal. The NDX chart is below the Scoreboards. Bonds look like they are ready to bottom. I'll write about that in...  Read More

Gold Gets Tricky

by Greg Schnell

Gold has been working its way lower since July. Gold miners have been dropping since August. Currently the ratio of the Miners to the Precious Metal is clearly in a downtrend that is being tested today. I will try to cover off more about Gold on Thursday's Webinar Commodities Countdown 2016-12-08. Also, we need to look...  Read More

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AUTO PARTS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- LEADERS INCLUDE BORGWARNER, MAGNA INTL, AND TENNOCO AUTOMOTIVE

by John Murphy

AUTO PARTS INDEX TURNS UP... My message from last Thursday was headlined: "Autos Drive Cyclicals Higher". It showed an index of auto stocks achieving a bullish breakout led by GM and Ford. Auto parts are today's cyclical leaders. That shouldn't be surprising since they're both tracking the same industry which is benefiting from the recent rotation into economically-sensitive parts of the...  Read More

Can Apple Follow through on Weekly Reversal?

by Arthur Hill

Apple (AAPL) reversed its long-term downtrend with a series of breakouts this summer and the stock is currently trading over 20% above its May low. Notice how the stock broke the early June high, the red trend line and the 40-week EMA with a surge in July-August. The 10-week EMA also crossed above the 40-week EMA in August. Even though the stock underperformed in October-November, Apple found...  Read More

The German DAX Surges, Joins S&P 500 In Breakout Mode

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, December 6, 2016 I've been waiting to see if the German DAX would join the S&P 500 in breakout territory and, thus far, I'm getting my answer today with the DAX currently up 155 points, or 1.44%, this morning which cleared 2016 overhead resistance at 10800.  Here's a look at that breakout and the significance: The chart above does NOT...  Read More

Bunge (BD) Does Some Jumping

by Greg Schnell

There have been some Agriculture related stocks pushing to new 52 week highs recently. I wrote about Agrium (AGU.TO, AGU) recently. Today, Bunge (BD) jumped up to a 52-week high. This $10 Billion market cap company has just completed a one-year base and looks set to move higher. I usually like the SCTR to break into the top quadrant (above 75%) in relative...  Read More

Revisit to Natural Gas (UNG) - New IT BUY Signal and Using Gaps to Set Stops

by Erin Heim

I recently received a tweet (follow me on Twitter @ _DecisionPoint) thanking me for an updated chart of UNG on November 21st which helped him bag a 20% gain. Back in late October, I wrote an article on Natural  Read More

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The Next Two Months Will Be Critical For Gold

by Martin Pring

Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Gold leads commodities Gold breaks down against some commodities Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to be one of the best investments on the board, but...  Read More

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Rally On, Garth - USO Declines, Oil Balks at Resistance

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Unless the market takes a serious turn, I wouldn't expect to see any changes. However, we are waiting for some BUY signals to appear in the short-term for the NDX. Oil is pulling back after unsuccessfully testing overhead resistance. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal  Read More

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Time to Go Slow on XLF, XLI and KRE? - Channel Target for XME - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

  -----   Webinar Video   -----   Art's Charts ChartList    -----      Slow Down Time for XLF, XLI, and KRE? .... XME Target Based on Rising Channel .... Broken Resistance Turns First Support for XES .... EuroTop  Read More

Crude Oil Again Challenging Major Breakout; Renewables Bottoming

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, December 5, 2016 Financials (XLF, +1.19%) were back on top of the sector leaderboard on Monday after taking a "lengthy" one day pause.  It's been a crazy run for financial stocks and we're growing accustomed to the almost daily gains in banks ($DJUSBK), life insurance ($DJUSIL), investment services ($DJUSSB) and asset managers ($DJUSAG)...  Read More

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Bounce After Pause - New ITTM BUY Signal for USO

by Erin Heim

Today saw higher prices in all of the DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes preventing any new signals. The NDX hasn't given up its short-term bearish signals, but more days like today and it won't be long. The indexes (minus the Dow) took a pause last week and now are resuming the rally. USO had a positive 20/50-EMA crossover to generate a new BUY signal. Looking at the chart, I think it  Read More

Recognize Platform Compression Patterns for Early Entries

by Martha Stokes

Trade with the Professional Traders for Higher Profits The stock for PacWest Bancorp (PACW: NASDAQ) recently had a strong "Pop Out of the Box" candlestick pattern, after a Platform compression pattern. Preceding the compression from August – October, the price action was a Trading Range. Often times Trading Ranges compress into a tighter formation when...  Read More

Market Breadth and Technical Analysis

by Greg Morris

Some of the following is from my book, " The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators," published by McGraw-Hill in 2005, with the  Read More

Italian and German Indexes Battle Different Sides of Key Moving Average

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows year-to-date price action for the Milan Index ($MIB) and German DAX Index ($DAX). Note that the MIB is down around 22% year-to-date and the DAX is down around 2% since January. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up around 6% so far this year. The next directional move for European stocks could hinge on these two indexes. The Milan Index is in a downtrend overall and just  Read More

TNX Hits Resistance, Financials Sell

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, December 2, 2016 Friday saw continuing bifurcation, but with this time the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 leading while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 lagged.  Rotation wasn't all positive, however, as utilities (XLU, +0.91%) and consumer staples (XLP, +0.64%) led the rally.  Financials (XLF, -1.09%), on the other hand, finally saw some relief  Read More

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A Bull Flag for IWM - Short-Term RSI Setup for QQQ - 3 Sector SPDR Setups - ChartList Update (13 Stocks)

by Arthur Hill

An RSI(5) Setup for QQQ .... IWM Corrects with Bull Flag .... Three Sector SPDRs with Short-term Bullish Setups .... Biotechs Hold the Key to Healthcare .... ChartList Update .... QCOM, SYMC, ACN, ATI, AVGO, CHKP, CTRL, AMGN, BMY, MRK, PFE, TASR and XOM .... //// ....       An RSI(5) Setup for QQQ  QQQ plunged on Wednesday-Thursday and RSI(5) moved below 30 for a...  Read More

Very clear rotational picture in US sectors! Watching XLE, XLI and XLB for opportunities

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotational picture for US sectors. For a change the rotations are well defined and clearly visible, which immediately raises the question; " For how long?" I will try to answer the question, but no-one ever said it was easy.. ;) Summary Well defined sector rotation at the moment Avoid Utilities, Staples and Health Care as they push deeper  Read More

Weekly MACD Turns Negative On This Group For First Time In Five Years

by Tom Bowley

I pulled up one month returns for all industry groups and there were several groups that have performed quite poorly over this period, despite the overall market strength.  Toys ($DJUSTY) are down 6.78% over the last month, but a negative divergence on its weekly chart is likely the culprit.  Internet stocks ($DJUSNS) have fallen 4.59%, but the pullback to 1100 was somewhat warranted...  Read More

SPY: Is the Trump Rally Pausing or Over?

by Carl Swenlin

 The market has rallied about +6.5% from the November low, but less than half of that can be attributed to the election results. As of the close on Tuesday, November 8, it was widely believed that Clinton would be the winner. When the opposite result emerged, the market rallied an additional +3.6%. By itself, this was not a spectacular advance, and a pullback began after Wednesday's  Read More

Why Point and Figure Works

by Bruce Fraser

We are often asked to explain the rationale for why the horizontal Point and Figure (PnF) method works for estimating price objectives. The horizontal PnF method which requires judgment and nuance to employ, is rarely used these days, yet it works surprisingly well. The judgment required is in knowing how much of the horizontal congestion area to count for the purposes of estimating how far a...  Read More

ChartLists Are The Key To Disciplined And Successful Trading

by Tom Bowley

I spend a great deal of time scouring the market and looking for interesting trade setups.  It's quite often that I see a stock that I really like, but it's not at a price level where I'm ready to pull the trigger.  If I move onto the next chart, chances are that prior chart will be gone until.....I see it days or weeks later and it's made a big move that I was anticipating...  Read More

Rotation Continues Into Value Stocks, Financials and Energy Still Look Cheap

by John Murphy

Two days after the election (November 10), I wrote a message entitled: "Rotation Out of Growth Stocks into Value Stocks Causes Profit-taking in Technology". We're seeing a replay of that rotation again this week as technology stocks are underperforming the market while financials, energy, and industrials surge. Chart 1 compares the move to new highs in the S&P 500 Value ETF (black bars) to...  Read More

Taking Advantage of Good Luck

by John Hopkins

Every once in a while the gods of trading look out for us and reward our perseverance, a little bone for all of those trades that don't turn out so well. When one of these opportunities takes place you should be prepared to take advantage of these rare gifts by pocketing profits when you can.   As an example, we issued a trade alert to our members this past week on HLX. We issued the alert...  Read More

Sum of the Parts Analysis for the S&P 500

by Arthur Hill

The whole is only as strong as the sum of its parts. Applying this logic to the stock market, the S&P 500 represents the whole and the nine sector SPDRs represent the sum of the parts. Let's see just how strong the parts of the S&P 500 are. The chart below shows SPY and the nine sector SPDRs. The sector charts are sorted by the percentage above the 200-day EMA with the highest at the  Read More

Is There A Holiday Present For Gold Investors Here?

by Greg Schnell

Gold has dropped into the very unloved category. There is a great quote that interests me when we get technical setups like this.  " I believe the very best money is made at market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I  Read More

Weakened NDX Triggers Two Short-Term Bearish Signals

by Erin Heim

The daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 doesn't really resemble any of the other large-cap indexes or even most small-cap indexes. Technology sectors have performed terribly. The Election "euphoria" enjoyed by the Dow Industrials and most other indexes really didn't do much for tech. Consequently, the NDX has triggered a Short-Term  Read More