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John Murphy's Market Message     Click here to read his latest post

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Market Message

ENERGY STOCKS RISE WITH OIL -- RISING OIL MAY BE HURTING UTILITIES

by John Murphy

PROPOSED OPEC CUTS BOOST OIL AND ENERGY STOCKS... Yesterday's announcement of proposed production cuts by OPEC this November pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher along with energy shares. The daily bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil (plotted through yesterday) trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. It's trading higher again today. Crude has  Read More

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Art's Charts

Broad Market Stalls - Finance Props up IWM - Mining Stocks Lead Materials Sector - 12 Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

Finance and Tech Power S&P 500 .... Broad Market Stalls .... QQQ and IWM Maintain Upward Drift .... XLI and XLB Bounce with Higher Lows .... XLE Holds Uptrend as XES Challenges Resistance .... Metals & Mining SPDR Extends Breakout .... Art's Charts ChartList Update .... //// ....     Finance and Tech Power S&P 500 There are clearly some crosscurrents at work in the broader...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Looking For A Breakout Stock In Energy? Listen Up Nabor

by Tom Bowley

Energy stocks (XLE) have been lifted the past couple days due to OPEC agreeing to stem production in an attempt to balance supply and demand.  It's difficult to say whether it'll actually work, but thus far the stock market likes what it's hearing.  Energy already was one of the best performing sectors as it's risen more than 15% over the last six months.  The second best sector?...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Energy Enjoys Biggest Day of 2016; Equities Surge

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, September 28, 2016 Energy shares (XLE, +4.32%) soared on Wednesday to their largest single day gain of the year as crude oil ($WTIC) gained more than 5% on the back of OPEC's agreement to curb oil production.  This was the first such agreement since 2008 and kept oil bears on the defensive throughout yesterday's session.  Crude oil...  Read More

Wed, Sep 28

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DecisionPoint Alert

New STTM BUY Signals for SPX and OEX - New PMO BUY Signal for USO

by Erin Heim

I'm back in the saddle after presenting at ChartCon 2016. For those who attended, thank you for all the interaction via Guidebook! It was as if you all were there, except I was able to interact with you far better. There is nothing more energizing than engaging with your peers and followers. If you didn't attend, you truly missed out. Now on with the show. There were numerous signal  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

McDonalds Breaks Triangle Trend Line to Signal Trend Continuation

by Arthur Hill

McDonalds shareholders are certainly not "lovin it" right now because the stock is in a long-term downtrend and it is one of the worst performing stocks in the Dow Industrials. The chart below shows the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA and the stock below the 200-day SMA. The breakdown started with a lower high in mid June and a big gap down. The stock then consolidated with a triangle and is...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Technology And Consumer Discreitionary Lead Stock Rally

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap First, I'd like to thank everyone who attended ChartCon 2016, making it a HUGE success!  It was great interacting with folks from around the globe via Guidebook and I can't wait to have the opportunity to do it again!  I will be back on schedule with my blog starting today and my webinars will be back up and running on Monday. When I left last week, the...  Read More

TechniTrader

Martha Stokes: Stock Chart Indicator Analysis

by Martha Stokes

The Importance of Quantity I had a blog reader request to delve a bit more into the differences between PRICE & TIME Indicators, and QUANTITY aka VOLUME & TIME Indicators. Most of the time when I start to teach someone who already has been trading, some of them over 20 years and still struggling, I find that one of the major missing elements in their success is an...  Read More

Tue, Sep 27

RRG Charts

6 out of 10 sectors rotating in(to) lagging quadrant

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the sector rotation for ten US sector ETFs. The new REITs sector ETF is not included yet due to a lack of historical data points. The immediate catch on the RRG above is the separation of XLK and XTL in the leading quadrant while most other sectors are on the left-hand side of the 100-level of the JdK RS-Ratio axis. Six sectors inside, or just...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Bouncing Off Support

by Carl Swenlin

Today SPY moved down to strong support, then it bounced off of it. If only there was sufficient volume to confirm today's advance. As for the Scoreboards, $NDX, which had a new PMO crossover SELL signal yesterday, switched back to a PMO BUY signal today. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model  Read More

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Art's Charts

Wedge Break Dominates Oil Chart - Big Triangle Keeps Copper in Check - Gold Extends Stall - 4 Charts to Watch

by Arthur Hill

Year-to-date Performance for 3 Key Commodities .... Oil Remains Stuck in Downtrend .... Copper Consolidates with Downtrend .... Gold Stalls above Breakout Zone .... Charts to Watch  - XLF, GOOGL, FDN and MSFT .... //// ....     Year-to-date Performance for 3 Key Commodities The oil, gold and copper charts could give us some insight into Treasury yields, future inflation and the...  Read More

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Market Message

ANOTHER LOOK AT TRANSPORTATION STOCKS -- FEDEX TURNS UP

by John Murphy

TRANSPORTATION ISHARES STILL LOOK POSITIVE... My market message from three weeks ago (Wednesday, September 7) showed Transportation iShares climbing to a five-month high. I took that as a sign that transportation stocks were on the verge of an upside breakout. A pullback in the transportation group since then has prevented an upside breakout (see circle). But they may be getting ready  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

XLF SCTR Plummets To Bottom Quartile On DB News

by Greg Schnell

The news of Deutsche Bank (DB) breaking well below the Brexit lows can not be comforting for the broader financial community. Today the XLF lost its momentum and dropped to the bottom quadrant. While this is a weekly chart, the first day of the week sent a chilly message. We broke to 2-month lows today and this week is important as it will mark an end-of-quarter and  Read More

Mon, Sep 26

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Crude Oil And Energy Stocks Remain Bullish

by Tom Bowley

Crude oil prices ($WTIC) have been hovering between $40-$52 per barrel for the past six months, but the bottoming reverse head & shoulders pattern is telling us to watch closely to see if we can get a confirming breakout on this pattern above neckline resistance at $52.  In the meantime, the energy sector ETF (XLE) remains in a very bullish pattern with rising 20 week EMA support...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

More Than a Gap Filler

by Carl Swenlin

Friday's decline could have been interpreted as a pullback to fill the up gap on Thursday, but today the decline continued, putting a negative spin on the picture. There were some Scoreboard signal changes today -- three short-term, and an IT Trend Model change for the Dow. Also for the Dow, there was a weekly PMO SELL signal on Friday that I missed at the time. That Dow scoreboard is looking...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Answering Some Questions From ChartCon 2016

by Greg Schnell

Well, ChartCon 2016 is over. I am sitting in the coffee bar with Arthur Hill this morning and we are discussing some of the ChartCon wrap-up details. Arthur provided a great presentation on systematic trading. I presented the SCTR with some little twists for people who might have seen the SCTR presentation before. Reading through the follow-up questions and comments, there are some great ideas  Read More

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Art's Charts

Setting Benchmark Lows for Major Indexes - Breadth for the 4 Offensive Sectors - 7 Charts to Watch

by Arthur Hill

Defining the Uptrends using Benchmark Lows .... Broad Market Breadth Review .... Watch the Stock-Bond Ratio for Clues on Risk Appetite .... %Above 200-day Triggers for Consumer Discretionary Sector .... Technology Sector Shows No Signs of Weakness .... Charts to Watch - XRT, ITB, XSD, KRE, XME, XES and IEF .... The Volatility Calendar .... //// .... Defining the Uptrends using Benchmark Lows...  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

Technical Analysis and Its Return to Prominence

by Greg Morris

When I started in this business, most of my analysis was done with graph paper, colored pencils, and a very expensive red LED calculator (mid-1970s).  I subscribed to Barron's and on Sunday afternoon would sit at my desk (which looked a lot like a kitchen table) and calculated various moving averages for the NYSE Index, the advance decline line (required a calculation of its own), and  Read More

Fri, Sep 23

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

Introducing The Special K Scan

by Martin Pring

Rationale for the Special K At my Chartcon presentation, I outlined the characteristics and uses of my Special K indicator and introduced a new advanced scan for identifying trading signals.  I'll talk about that, as well as how you can set up such scans later, but first a rationale for this unusual indicator. The Special K is a momentum indicator that combines...  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Filling the Gap

by Carl Swenlin

I had suspected that yesterday's low volume up gap might represent momentary exhaustion. Today SPY moved down just enough to fill the gap. In spite of today's decline we got three short-term BUY signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. There were ST Trend Model BUY signals on $SPX and $OEX, as 5EMAs crossed up through 20EMAs. For $NDX the PMO crossed up through the signal line.  Read More

The Traders Journal

Thrive as an Investor, Don't Just Survive

by Gatis Roze

Jonathan Wendel earned $454,544.  He is very similar to us investors / traders in many ways despite being a professional video gamer.  Academics have in fact identified  the roles that gamers adopt - such as Explorers, Sentinels, Analysts and Campaigners.  Not that dissimilar to the tribes academics assigned us investors. The point is, we are more alike than we are unalike...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

The Bank Review Three Months After Brexit - Part 2

by Greg Schnell

This is a continuation of the article: " The Bank Review Three Months After Brexit"  Click on the link to read it first. In hindsight, Brexit injected fear into the market and the market has rallied hard for three months. Let's zoom in on some of the banks close to the issue...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Bank Review Three Months After Brexit

by Greg Schnell

This article was first published on June 27, 2016. All of the charts have been updated to check our progress. Since the sub-prime financial crisis, there has been a lot of discussion about Too-Big-To-Fail, Bank Stress Tests, and Central Banks using unique tools to try and keep the market on an even keel. One of the problems in the world is the deeply indebted government entities. What makes  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Etsy (ETSY) Looks Crafty Here

by Greg Schnell

Etsy.com (ETSY) is a website focused on the craft community. This user community is a large group with very unique and creative products. As a retailing website, ETSY is bringing craft providers to craft buyers. Etsy went public in April 2015. The stock has been in decline and built a base for the first 6 months of this year. Recently, ETSY broke above the $10 base and went...  Read More

Thu, Sep 22

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DecisionPoint Alert

SPY Gaps Higher

by Carl Swenlin

The market gapped up at the open and held on to its gains throughout the day. The Dow, which had generated a ITTM NEUTRAL signal on Tuesday, switched back to a BUY today. The Dow chart shows the skinny dip of the 20EMA below the 50EMA. This illustrates why the model returns a NEUTRAL signal rather than a SELL signal when there is a downside 20/50 crossover with the 50EMA above the 200EMA. We do...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Renewable Energy Stock Fills Breakaway Gap

by Tom Bowley

It's nice to see a heavy volume gap higher to break a downtrend.  It can be a very strong signal that sentiment has changed on a particular stock or industry group.  While renewable energy stocks ($DWCREE) remain technically-challenged, one of its components - Sunrun (RUN) - has certainly begun to show improving technical signs that could be considered by aggressive traders.  Read More

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Art's Charts

Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness - QQQ Hits New High - KRE Extends Correction - Watching the Wedge in IEF

by Arthur Hill

Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness .... Percent above 200-day EMA Remains Strong .... SPY Follows Through on Inside Day Reversal .... QQQ Leads as IWM Challenges High .... Housing and Retail are Still Lagging .... Regional Banks Extend Correction .... Treasuries Surge within Corrective Patterns .... //// .... Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness Stocks fell...  Read More

Wed, Sep 21

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DecisionPoint Alert

Fed Dithers; Market Advances

by Carl Swenlin

The Fed didn't raise interest rates, but they think they may later this year. The usual baloney. As we contemplate when they may actually raise rates, let's keep in mind that they created the ill-fated real estate bubble last decade. Having since created the current, new and improved real estate bubble, they are probably are not going to do anything to poke a hole in it. (Editor's Note: I...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Gold Surges On The Back Of The Fed Holding Rates

by Greg Schnell

So the Fed held rates steady which caused the price of Gold to surge.  That caused the Gold miners (GDX) to really surge.  This looks like a nice entry back into the miners after pulling back for 6 weeks. Hey, last chance to get in on ChartCon 2016. We kick it off Friday morning! There is some...  Read More

RRG Charts

Tech stocks dominate sector rotation but broader market at risk

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph below holds the components of the Dow Jones Industrials index vis-à-vis the $INDU index. The one observation that immediately stands out to me is the domination of technology stocks inside the leading quadrant. AAPL, MSFT, INTC, and CSCO are all positioned well inside the top right-hand quadrant, indicating that they are in (mature) relative uptrends...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Retail SPDR Hits Moment-of-truth

by Arthur Hill

The Retail SPDR (XRT) is at its moment-of-truth with a long-term bullish pattern battling a short-term bearish pattern. Long-term, the ETF formed a double bottom and broke resistance with the July surge. This breakout zone turned into support with a successful test in early August. After a sharp decline from late August to early September, the ETF formed a flat consolidation near this support...  Read More

Tue, Sep 20

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DecisionPoint Alert

More Congestion Ahead of Fed - Dow Industrials Move to ITTM Neutral Signal

by Erin Heim

The DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary is not the only table losing Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals. Today, the Dow triggered an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. I've included its chart beneath the DP Scoreboards where you can see the Dow is the first to give up its ITTM BUY signal. The other indexes will soon follow suit unless price can get up above the 50-EMA...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Fifth Third Bank Corp (FITB) Breaks Above A Long Down Trend

by Greg Schnell

Fifth Third (FITB) is a bank with an upward bias above the previous peaks. After spending almost 2.5 years building a ceiling on the stock, FITB is finally pushing through. The SCTR started pushing up above 75 back in July. Last week was the break above the trend line. With the Fed meeting tomorrow, it will be important to see how the bank stocks react. Some of the overseas...  Read More

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup

The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Martin Pring

Major stock averages are at major support Stocks or bonds? What about the rest of the world? Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I am seeing a lot of charts in widely diffuse areas, just poised to break out from trading  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

This Relative Ratio Suggests U.S. Weakness Ahead

by Tom Bowley

Special Note I continue to move into ChartCon 2016 mode, so bear with me as all of us here at StockCharts.com prepare to descend upon California.  My travel day is tomorrow so I will not likely post at all.  Of course, there's always the possibility of a last minute airport post!  :-) Please check out the ChartCon 2016 information page  Read More

Mon, Sep 19

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DecisionPoint Alert

One More Buy Signal Lost on Market/Sector Summary

by Erin Heim

There are no new signal changes on the DP Chart Gallery DecisionPoint Scoreboards below; however, our Market/Sector Summary market posture table below that continues to change appearance as another Neutral signal is added and a BUY signal taken away. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Totter on the Teeter-Totter - Webinar Skim 2016-09-15

by Greg Schnell

Commodities continued their pullback this week. The problem is that a lot of them have been teetering on support. This week marks a break in my optimism. First, Crude oil finished the week at the uptrend line. On the webinar, I used the close rather than the intraday lows. The bottom line, oil needs to hold here. Gold closed below the uptrend line. This is an important level of...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Financials iShares Bounces off Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Chartists looking to track the finance sector can turn to the iShares Financials ETF (IYF). Note that the Finance SPDR (XLF) is in the midst of a metamorphosis this week so chartists can consider watching IYF for clues on the finance sector this week. IYF is in a long-term uptrend because the 50-day EMA is above the...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

U.S. Equities Stumble on Friday As Banks Test 50 Day

by Tom Bowley

Special Note My blog articles will be brief the next two days as I prepare for ChartCon 2016.  I will be traveling on Wednesday so there will be no article that day.  While in California, my blog schedule will not be set so I'll simply post when I have time and am able.  ChartCon 2016 begins this Friday (!!!) and you still have time to register for this...  Read More

Sun, Sep 18

DecisionPoint

Oversold Bounce Possible?

by Carl Swenlin

Before we ask if an oversold bounce is possible, we should ask if the market is oversold. Looking at the chart below, the PMO is just above the zero line. While that level proved to be oversold after the Brexit vote at the end of June, a more typical oversold reading is around -2.0, like it was in February. But maybe we can find another indicator that might offer some hope of a short-term  Read More