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Short-Term Trend Model Neutral Signals Abound - New PMO BUY Signal on Gold

by Erin Heim

*** IMPORTANT NOTE: We are making some changes to DecisionPoint blogs and webinars starting on April 1st. Click here for more details.  ***   As projected yesterday, the Short-Term Trend Model executed three new Neutral signals on...  Read More

Darden Defies with a Triangle Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Stocks got hammered on Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling the most this year (1.24%) and breaking below its March low. Even with the seemingly big decline, the index is still just 2.25% from an all time high. Darden Restaurants caught my attention because it did not break below its early March low. Instead, the stock surged the last eight days and broke a triangle trend line. Overall, DRI is  Read More

BAC Tests Support

by Greg Schnell

Bank Of America has been a top performing stock for the last 9 months. It has continually worked its way higher. Tuesday's price action marked a significant reversal as the stock is now testing horizontal support for the last three months. The SCTR is a great buying signal, but it tends to be very late on selling stocks in a strong uptrend. I prefer the Relative Strength shown in  Read More

U.S. Stocks Tumble Most Since September

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, March 21, 2017 After months of steady gains, Tuesday's action was painful with eight of nine sectors lower - the utilities sector (XLU, +1.39%) was the lone exception.  Further, our major indices were led to the downside by the more aggressive Russell 2000, which dropped 2.71%.  The biggest losses were felt in banks ($DJUSBK) where the group...  Read More

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Is the Correction Finally Here or is this Just Noise?

by Arthur Hill

.... Breadth Indicators Plunge to Extremes  .... Finance, Industrials and Tech Get Hit Hard .... SPY has not Done This since October .... Small-cap Correlation Turns Down .... RSI Breaks Key Level for QQQ .... The Bottom Line .... What a difference a day makes - 24 little hours. There is selling pressure and then there is SELLING PRESSURE. Tuesday's decline represents the latter  Read More

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DecisionPoint's Evolution Continues!

by Chip Anderson

"Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end." - Closing Time, Semisonic Several years ago DecisionPoint.com merged with StockCharts.com bringing a huge collection of new tools, data and analysis techniques to our website.  Since then Carl Swenlin, Erin Heim and the data team here at StockCharts have worked tirelessly to provide you with their market analysis and...  Read More

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Pullback Moves Price Out of Rising Trend Channel - New ITTM Neutral Signal for the Dollar

by Erin Heim

No new signal changes to the DP Scoreboards, but I suspect we will begin to see the ST Trend Model signals change soon. Because the 20-EMAs are well above the 50-EMAs, the STTM signals should change to Neutral signals this week if price continues lower and closes beneath the 20-EMA. The Dollar generated an IT Trend Model Neutral signal. I'll write about that in the section on the Dollar near  Read More

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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES SUFFER BIGGEST DROP THIS YEAR -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LOOK EVEN WORSE

by John Murphy

STOCK ETFS SELLOFF... The market is suffering its worst day this year. Chart 1 show the PowerShares Nasdaq QQQ experiencing a downside reversal day after hitting a record high this morning. Its 14-day RSI has fallen out of overbought territory over 70 for the first time since December which shows loss of upside momentum. Daily MACD lines (below chart) are negative.  Read More

The Canadian Technician Recording 2017-03-21

by Greg Schnell

Here is the link to this week's recording. The Canadian Technician With Greg Schnell 2017-03-21 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.    Read More

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Strong Uptrends Continue in the Fab Five - Three Industrial Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

.... The Fab Five Remain Strong (GOOGL, AAPL, FB, MSFT, AMZN) .... Equinix Looks Set to Continue Uptrend  .... Think Market, Sector, Group and Trend First (NVDA) .... A Payment Processor, A Big Data Player and an IoT Leader (PYPL, TDC, XLNX) .... Crown Castle, Zoetis and General Cable Turn Up (CCI, ZTS, BGC) .... Watch GE, Emerson and Caterpillar for clues on XLI ....  The Fab Five...  Read More

NASDAQ's Negative Divergence Holding The Market At Bay

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, March 20, 2017 Financials (XLF, -0.73%) led the market lower on Monday as short-term price and gap support was lost on one of the best performing sectors since the early November run.  While I don't view this as a big technical development in the long-term, it's worth noting that the door has been opened to further selling in the near-term...  Read More

Three breaks and you're out .....

by Julius de Kempenaer

This post looks at the rotation of US sectors again. The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the ETFs that track the performance of US sectors. Pretty much immediately the attention goes out to the Energy sector (XLE) and the Financials sector (XLF) as they stand out because of the length of their tails. Another combination worth keeping an eye on is the opposite rotation of Technology  Read More

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Soft Market - Indicators Bearish in All Time Frames

by Erin Heim

We've been watching the market soften over the past week and now the indicators are back in line for a decline.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this  Read More

Ford Breaks Bollinger Band after a Long Squeeze

by Arthur Hill

Ford (F) looked as if it was simply consolidating after a sharp surge and breakout, but this consolidation strung out and the stock broke to the downside on Monday. The chart shows Ford breaking above the September high with a surge in November-December. The stock fell back after this breakout and again surged with a big two-day advance. It looked like Ford was poised for further gains in early...  Read More

The Commodities Index ($CRB) Is Near 4 Month Lows - Panic Time?

by Greg Schnell

The foreign markets have been breaking out this week while the Commodity markets are trying to find direction. After making a new 3-month low, it is hard to be bullish. Even after the Commodity rally off the lows last year, we were unable to trigger a bull market signal on the weekly RSI chart. For a bull market to be starting we want it to rally up to the 70 level. Even then the RSI...  Read More

Tires Gaining Traction, Ready To Put Your Portfolio In Overdrive

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, March 17, 2017 It was another bifurcated day in the market on Friday as rotation continued.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both posted minor losses while the Russell 2000 led with a 0.40% gain.  Utilities (XLU, +0.60%) and industrials (XLI, +0.55%) were the sector winners while financials (XLF, -0.98%) and healthcare (XLV, -0.55%) were the...  Read More

My 100th Blog Article

by Greg Morris

This is funny. A few articles ago I commented on the foolishness of the media's focus on Dow 20,000 and now I'm focusing on my 100th blog article.  Is that being a hypocrite or what?  I have been racking my feeble brain trying to think of an appropriate topic for this milestone.  Maybe I'll start with a little history. When I got involved in money management in the 1990s with...  Read More

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Five Markets That Are Approaching Critical Junctures

by Martin Pring

US Dollar completes a head and shoulders top Dollar right at key up trendline against the rest of the world Gold caught in a tight trading range West Texas oil also restrained in a tight trading range Mexico---a chance to jump over the wall? Emerging markets to the rescue It seems that a lot of markets have reached inflexion points, the resolution of which could result in some important...  Read More

AAPL: Correction Due

by Carl Swenlin

Apple (AAPL) has rallied +60% from its May 2016 low, which was also the the low for the previous bear market for AAPL. The price advance for the last month-and-a-half has been pretty vigorous, but the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) has topped and crossed down through its signal line, so a correction seems likely. As usual, I like to look at a longer-term chart to enhance my perspective. In the...  Read More

Apparel Retailers Printing Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern

by Tom Bowley

Over the past year, the Dow Jones U.S. Apparel Retailers Index ($DJUSRA) has been one of only four industry groups in the consumer discretionary space that has posted a loss.  And over the past three months the DJUSRA is the worst performing area of consumer discretionary.  But keep in mind that March is the best calendar month of the year for apparel retail stocks historically  Read More

All-World Index Hits New Record

by John Murphy

Chart 1 shows the FTSE All-World Stock Index ($FAW) trading at a new record high. The FAW includes stocks from 47 developed and emerging markets. It just recently cleared its 2015 high which resumed its major uptrend. That's a positive sign because it shows that the stock market rally is global in scope. The FAW, however, is heavily influenced by the U.S. market which is also  Read More

Reward to Risk Calculation a Must

by John Hopkins

As part of our service at EarningsBeats.com we send trade alerts to our members on stocks that beat earnings expectations. But before we notify members of any trade candidates we look closely at the "Reward to Risk' ratio as we want to make sure it is favorable before we pull the trigger. The basic concept is this. We only want to get involved in trades that have much more upside than downside...  Read More

Kickin' It Up Globally

by Greg Schnell

In my Chartwatchers article for March 4th, I was focused on some Country Indexes like Germany's $DAX and India's $BSE. The commentary revolved around watching these markets for potential breakouts. You can follow this link to check it out. 5 Foreign Markets Are At Must Watch...  Read More

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Video - Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Small-caps Catch a Bid

by Arthur Hill

The stock market moved higher again this past week with several sector and industry group ETFs hitting new highs. Four of the five sector SPDRs hit fresh 52-week highs. These include the Technology SPDR, HealthCare SPDR, Consumer Staples SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR. Together, these four sectors account for over 50% of the S&P 500 and this means the bull market is doing just fine...  Read More

Ignoring Signals is the First Step to Taking Signals - How Well do you Know MACD?

by Arthur Hill

 Two Indicators in One Indicators generate lots of signals and many of these signals are just noise. It is imperative that chartists understand how their indicators work and exactly what these indicators are saying. Understanding the ins and outs of an indicator will help chartists determine which signals to take seriously and which signals to ignore.  Read More

Crude Oil's Slippery Slope

by Bruce Fraser

Crude oil is on a slippery slope downward. Was this completely unexpected or were there clues of the impending decline? The stock market is a discounting mechanism. Stocks traditionally light the way by starting to move prior to the underlying economic events. That, of course, is the argument for Technical Analysis of stock prices. If stocks are going to move first, investors who wait for the...  Read More

PMO Scan from 3-17-2017 DP Webinar - Spotlight on KapStone Paper (KS)

by Erin Heim

I am asked constantly about how to use the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) and Trend Models in a scan. These two ingredients combine into a great...  Read More

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Options Expiration - High Volume, Little Price Movement - Review of Weekly Charts

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DP Scoreboards, but I can tell you that the LT PMO SELL signal on the NDX could switch to a BUY at the end of the month. Currently the LT PMO on the NDX is above its signal line, but the signal will not go final until the last trading day of the month (3/31). The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal  Read More

Market Timing Tools That Work: Pullbacks versus Corrections

by Gatis Roze

Here is how to tell if it's a regular market pullback versus a serious bearish correction. I strongly disagree with those that claim market timing is toxic.  Review this sample of eight of my charts.  These types of tools have helped me side-step all the major corrections over the past 25 years.  Focus on reviewing these charts at the major turns.  You'll see that you, too...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook 17-Mar-17 - Small-Caps Hold the Line as 2-yr Yield Surges

by Arthur Hill

.... Small-caps versus Finance and Healthcare  .... New Highs Lag, but %Above 200-day Holds Up .... Two Gaps Establish First Support for SPY .... QQQ Continues to Lead and IJR Continues to Lag .... Healthcare, Tech and Consumer Discretionary Lead .... New High Milestones for Healthcare and Consumer discretionary  .... Industrials and Finance Pull Back .... Breadth Indicators Turn Net...  Read More

The Emerging Markets $EEM Go Green On St. Patrick's Day - Creating A Chart Color Scheme Tip

by Greg Schnell

I know it was Fed day Wednesday, and Quadruple Witching Options Expiration Day today. I know it's St. Patrick's Day and they'll be partying around the world with green beers and Shamrocks. So in the world of StockCharts, we need to get on the St. Paddy's day bandwagon as the EEM chart is sending a green message today too. Look at the green volume candles for EEM on Wednesday and Thursday...  Read More

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ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- FOREIGN STOCKS CONTINUE TO RALLY

by John Murphy

FTSE ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the FTSE All-World Stock Index ($FAW) trading at a new record high. The FAW includes stocks from 47 developed and emerging markets. It just recently cleared its 2015 high which resumed its major uptrend. That's a positive sign because it shows that the stock market rally is global in scope. The FAW, however, is  Read More

Homebuilders Hot; DR Horton Forms Cup, Lennar Tests High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, March 16, 2017 Home construction ($DJUSHB) continued its torrid pace of recent gains, rising another 2% on Thursday.  Since January 23rd, the DJUSHB has jumped roughly 20%.  That's a great year by any measure, yet we're only talking the past two months performance.  Momentum is very strong and volume trends are bullish as well.  I...  Read More

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SPY PMO Turns Down Again - Right Shoulder Forming on UUP

by Erin Heim

Price was down somewhat but it is tracing a path within a rising trend channel. However, momentum has turned more negative for the SPY and could suggest that rise might be dampened or extinguished. The Dollar's deep decline has begun to help Gold rally and help UUP form a head and shoulders pattern. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the  Read More

Investors Feeling Bearish = Good for the Market

by Erin Heim

I thought this "yin yang" symbol was actually a nice metaphor for sentiment. When we look at the sentiment numbers on a chart they are expressed as a percentage. For example, 31% are bullish, 39% are bearish, and the rest fall into the neutral category. It's a fixed space where bulls and...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video 2017-03-16

by Greg Schnell

Here is the link to the Commodities Countdown video for the week of 2017-03-16. Commodities Countdown With Greg Schnell 2017-03-16 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.   Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA    Read More

Fresh All-Time High For ORCL After Latest Earnings

by Tom Bowley

Oracle Corp (ORCL) needed a solid earnings report last night after the closing bell to reach all-time highs and it delivered exactly that.  ORCL posted both top line and bottom line (.63 vs .57) results that exceeded Wall Street consensus estimates and this morning's open cleared price resistance to soar into "blue sky" territory.  Prior highs were reached at the end of 2014...  Read More

Fed Hikes Rates, But No New Hike Expectations Revealed

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 15, 2017 The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting has come and gone.  As expected, the FOMC announcement at 2pm EST indicated that rates would be hiked another quarter point.  But the real question was whether the Fed would turn more hawkish on future hikes.  They did not.  They maintained their cautiously optimistic view...  Read More

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Airline ETF and Six Airline Stocks: Long-term Uptrend and Short-term Oversold - Plus Ford and Akamai

by Arthur Hill

.... The Airline Group is Tiny, Really Tiny .... Comparing the Airline Index with the Airline ETF .... JETS Hits Oversold Zone .... The Big Three (AAL, DAL, UAL) .... Three Regional Carriers (HA, JBLU, SKYW) .... Where to Find a List of Airline Stocks .... Two More Charts with Bullish Setups (F and AKAM) The Airline Group is Tiny, Really Tiny The focus today will be on the airline group because  Read More

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Rally Off a Fed Rate Hike? - UUP Triggers ST PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

Apparently, the market was ready to rally today regardless of the FOMC rate announcement. At least that is the impression given by the gap up on the open before the rate decision. Most already knew we were going to see a rate hike, so price may've already compensated or 'baked it in" with the decline we experienced off the recent all-time highs instead of declining sharply now. ...  Read More