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Don't Ignore This Chart!

Nautilus Does Some Heavy Lifting On Friday

by Tom Bowley

Nautilus (NLS) officially became a technical heavyweight on Friday as its stock price soared through price resistance to a fresh new 52 week high, bouncing bullishly off its rising 20 day EMA in the process.  Volume supported its first very bullish gap in early August and it once again confirmed yesterday's gap and breakout session.  Take a look: The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR)...  Read More

Fri, Aug 26

Members Only

DecisionPoint Alert

Short-Term Indicators Go Negative - Two Bearish ST Trend Model Signals on Scoreboards

by Erin Heim

There were two new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Today saw the Dow and OEX trigger new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) Neutral signals as the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA. This tells us that the shorter-term trends are getting negative. A review of the SPX chart shows the 5-EMA in decline, it just hasn't crossed below the 20-EMA to switch the signal. To review the annotated...  Read More

The Traders Journal

Fundamentals versus Technicals: This Ends the Debate!

by Gatis Roze

In one corner, you have investors.   In the other corner, you have the stock market.  When the two communicate accurately, you make money.  Yes, it is that simple.  Stay with me and I'll make it worth your while. Investors, stock pickers, traders – pick a label – all sit somewhere along a dichotomist spectrum from fundamental analysis (based on earnings, sales, assets...  Read More

TechniTrader

Martha Stokes: Identifying Breakout Patterns Prior to Momentum Runs

by Martha Stokes

The Importance of a Volume Oscillator in the Market Today The most difficult aspect of reading stock charts for most Technical and Retail Traders are the sideways patterns. Many traders simply do not know how to interpret sideways patterns, to determine in advance whether the stock will move up or down out of the sideways pattern. This is often why Options Traders use spreads  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

S&P 500 Hadn't Done This In Two Months

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, August 25, 2016 For the first time since late June, the S&P 500 closed beneath its 20 day EMA.  We've seen plenty of closes near its 20 day EMA, but yesterday marked the first one beneath.  Normally that's a pretty big deal with a negative divergence in play, but we'll have to see how this plays out today.  Traders will have the...  Read More

The Canadian Technician

Canadian Banks Continue To Find All-TIme Highs

by Greg Schnell

Canadian banks have been some of the best-performing banks in North America. While that isn't a stellar statement of strength, they are doing a good job of outperforming their beaten down peers. As the market participants wrestle with the Fed Yin-Yang every day, there is a quiet strength starting to show up across the large cap banks in North America. Let's zoom in on the Canadians as they...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Bank Of America (BAC) Approaches 2016 Highs

by Greg Schnell

Bank Of America (BAC) has been migrating higher over the last few months off the Brexit lows. As Bank Of America approaches the highs for 2016, the chart has some interesting traits. The last time BAC got near $15, the SCTR ranking was poor, sitting around 30. That means that 70% of the large-cap stocks had better price action than BAC. This trip to $15 is showing something...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Oil Pauses, Natural Gas Pops, Gold Slides - Webinar Skim 2016-08-25

by Greg Schnell

The commodity pops and drops this week have been very sudden both ways. Oil struggled as it approached $50 and has drifted back this week. This is not really a surprise, as probably every floor trader was selling at resistance. It has now built a nice channel between $39 and $50. If crude breaks through over the next few weeks, expect it to accelerate quickly. I started off with a review of the...  Read More

Thu, Aug 25

DecisionPoint

Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Lights Up and Triggers PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

Oil has been enjoying a strong rally. I wrote about a possible bull flag forming on Oil in today's DecisionPoint Alert blog that you may want to review. Natural gas, on the other hand, has not had the advantages that Oil has had. However, it may be lighting back up with the new Price  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Declining Trend Continues, But Support Holding - USO Pullback Forming a Bull Flag?

by Erin Heim

The last two weeks have had a striking similarity to the two weeks before them. There are two very distinct consolidation zones. The stalemate between bulls and bears has continued throughout August with neither able to make a statement. With the four ST PMO signals on the DP Scoreboards, momentum has a bearish bias.   The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is  Read More

Members Only

Martin Pring's Market Roundup

Look Up Not Down

by Martin Pring

More corrective activity to come? Are we there yet with Dow Theory? Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That is because the NYSE A/D line, and that constructed from common stocks only were both at new...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Slowing Momentum And Negative Divergences Are Wreaking Havoc On Equities

by Tom Bowley

The U.S. stock market has been suffering from a series of negative divergences that have run rampant throughout many sectors and industry groups.  As one weakening group sells off, money rotates to another strengthening group.  We have not been seeing wide participation moves to the upside.  The sector performance over the past month underscores this.  The energy sector  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Rough Day For Healthcare As Biotechs Fail At Resistance

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 24, 2016 Healthcare (XLV, -1.57%) was one of two sectors losing more than 1% on Wednesday as the Dow Jones U.S. Biotechnology Index ($DJUSBT) fell 2.46%.  There were many losers in the biotech space, but Amgen's loss of its rising 20 day EMA with a negative divergence is simply typical of what the overall market has been facing throughout...  Read More

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Art's Charts

RSI and the Dreaded Double Dip - Gold, Utilities and Banks Key Off Treasuries - XLF and KRE Hold Breakouts

by Arthur Hill

SPY and MDY are Barely Positive this Month     //     RSI(5) and the Dreaded Double Dip     //     The Noose Continues to Tighten for Treasuries     //     How Yields Effect Gold, Utilities and Finance      //     US 10-yr Yields Sticks Out     //      XLF and KRE Maintain Breakouts...  Read More

Wed, Aug 24

Members Only

DecisionPoint Alert

Steep Short-Term Declining Trend - ITTM Neutral Signal Generates on Utilities SPDR (XLU)

by Erin Heim

Before I start today's DP Alert article, I want to remind everyone that ChartCon 2016 is less than a month away! If you're a DecisionPoint follower, this ChartCon is for you. I'll be presenting the DecisionPoint Analysis Process and how you can use it to build your own trading system. ChartCon 2016 is "virtual". You can  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Breaks Wedge and Underperforms

by Arthur Hill

The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) looks vulnerable because the bigger trend is down and the ETF just broke a wedge trend line. The chart shows the 50-day EMA (green) below the 200-day EMA (red) and this suggests that a long-term downtrend remains underway. The ETF got a bounce in August, but a rising wedge formed and XES broke the wedge trend line with a decline the last three...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Dollar Remains Under Pressure, Lifting Materials And Energy

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, August 23, 2016 While U.S. equities continue to waver, albeit in a slow northerly fashion, they're not the only asset groups trying to figure out which direction they want to ultimately go.   Yesterday, I discussed the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) struggling to break out of a six week long consolidation between 1.50% and 1.60%, suggesting that...  Read More

Tue, Aug 23

DecisionPoint

Small-Cap ETFs Reveal Bullish Bias

by Erin Heim

An increase in bullishness on small-cap stocks is needed to support a new bull market move. Small-cap participation or better yet, small-cap leadership can help determine the health of the market in general. While reviewing the small-cap ETFs in the DecisionPoint LIVE public ChartList, I noticed some  Read More

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DecisionPoint Alert

Positive Close, But Bears in Control

by Erin Heim

Price is continuing to inch across the daily charts, not up or down. Price and the market seem to have reached equilibrium for the past month. We've seen two consolidation channels and only one real breakout that basically established the second trading channel. Although the market closed higher on the day, most of the gains that had been accumulated at the open were pared by more than half by...  Read More

Dancing with the Trend

Survivorship Bias

by Greg Morris

The story about Abraham Wald's work as a member of the Statistical Research Group during World War II can shed some light into money management (widely disseminated as Abraham Wald's Memo).  Wald was tasked with damage assessments to aircraft that returned from service over Germany, and determine which areas of the aircraft structure should be better protected.  He found that the...  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stretches Above Resistance

by Greg Schnell

Morgan Stanley (MS) has built a nice base and has been pushing above resistance for the last week. There are a few more clues that I like on the chart. The Relative Strength is just starting to break out above 6-month highs and the SCTR has moved above 75 which puts it in the top quartile for price action. The price has broken above the horizontal resistance layer. The PMO keeps accelerating...  Read More

Commodities Countdown

Martin Pring and Greg Schnell - Back From The Precipice - Webinar August 23

by Greg Schnell

Martin Pring and Greg Schnell are getting together in Pring Studios in Florida to do a live debate webinar. The setup is compelling as many of the major charts in the world are lining up for a major shift. I've nicknamed the webinar 'Back From The Precipice' as the charts appear to be setting up for a major trend change.  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Bifurcated Market Signals Little About The Short-Term

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, August 22, 2016 Monday was another boring day with most of the action slanting to the negative side, but it was nothing terrible.  In fact, both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 managed to finish the session with small gains while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 suffered just minor losses.  Defensive sectors led the action with utilities (XLU,  Read More

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Art's Charts

Price Action vs Momentum - All about Bollinger Band Squeezes (KRE, XLF, XSD) - Scanning for Squeezes - Webinar Video

by Arthur Hill

Click here for the webinar video recording The Song Remains the Same for SPY     //     Upward Price Action > Waning Momentum    //     IWM Continues to Lead     //     Bollinger Band Squeezes for KRE and XLF     //     Beware of  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

The Dow's Amazing Symmetric Triangle

by Chip Anderson

The Dow did something strange and wonderful today on its intraday chart: A perfect symmetric triangle pattern!  But one with really strange jumps up and down throughout.  Truly fascinating.  Usually Symmetric Triangles are "Continuation" patterns, which typically break in the direction of the trend prior to their formation.  But the Dow has been moving sideways for...  Read More

Mon, Aug 22

Members Only

DecisionPoint Alert

Above Support but Below Resistance - Gold Breaks Below Support

by Erin Heim

There were no new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today following Friday's PMO SELL signal on the NDX. A view of these four charts (available in the DecisionPoint LIVE public ChartList) tells us that the next signal changes will be on the Short-Term Trend Model when the 5-EMA crosses below the 20-EMA.  The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to  Read More

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Mattel Challenges Resistance with Signs of Accumulation

by Arthur Hill

Mattel (MAT) led the market from early October to early February with a 65 percent advance and then moved into a large consolidation the last six months. More recently, the stock surged off support in late June and then formed a smaller consolidation near resistance. Notice that the stock advanced with good volume on Monday and this could foreshadow a breakout. The lower indicator window shows...  Read More

Trading Places with Tom Bowley

If The Shoe Fits, Then Buy It

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, August 19, 2016 Stocks ended last week on a negative note with each of our major indices finishing in negative territory.  Losses were very minor on the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000, however, and three sectors - materials (XLB, +0.14%), technology (XLK, +0.06%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.06%) did manage to finish with gains...  Read More

RRG Charts

Facebook (FB) not able to keep up with XLK

by Julius de Kempenaer

The technology sector, as represented by XLK, started to show some positive sector rotation over the past month and last week managed to crossover from the improving quadrant to the leading quadrant on the weekly Relative Rotation Graph. Reason enough to check out the relative technical conditions for the stocks that make up XLK as shown on the Relative Rotation Graph below. Summary Positive...  Read More

Sun, Aug 21

Don't Ignore This Chart!

Merck Breaks To An All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

One company's failure can be another company's catalyst.  Take for instance Merck & Co (MRK), who on Friday, August 5th surged to an all-time high after Bristol Myers (BMY) had a failed clinical trial of its lung cancer drug.  BMY had clearly been outperforming MRK for several years up until this news hit.  Since then, the two have been moving in opposite directions with...  Read More

DecisionPoint

New Highs Contracting Against Higher Prices

by Carl Swenlin

Since late-June, prices have been moving higher, while the number of new 52-week highs has been fading. On the face of it this might be cause for concern; however, there are a couple of things that mitigate this apparent weakness. First, while new highs have been contracting, there has been no expansion of new 52-week lows. Conveniently, there is an example of a combination of shrinking new...  Read More

Sat, Aug 20

ChartWatchers

Where is Everybody? Low Volume Continues to Plague the Markets

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Where is everybody?  Things look pretty darn good on the weekly index charts: Stocks are at or near new all-time highs. The Tech sector is showing signs of life. Energy stocks are roaring up the SCTR rankings The "New Highs-New Lows Line" is moving higher (and still has room to grow) Lots of well-known stocks are in  Read More

ChartWatchers

Rising Crude Oil Prices May Start Putting Upward Pressure on Bond Yields

by John Murphy

In more normal times, the direction of commodity prices, and oil in particular, had an impact of the direction of bond yields. That because oil is viewed as an early barometer of inflationary trends. A falling oil price (along with other commodities) was disinflationary which boosted bond prices and lowered bond yields. Rising oil had the opposite effect -- falling bond prices and rising yields...  Read More

ChartWatchers

With Earnings Season Over, What's Next?

by John Hopkins

The latest earnings season has come and gone. Now what? It's a good question, especially with the market in stall mode, with the S&P barely budging in over a month. This stagnation comes after investors seemed to have applauded the majority of earnings reports telling me that the strong numbers had already been anticipated. The good news for the bulls in this month long consolidation, which...  Read More

ChartWatchers

Rebound In Crude Oil Prices Trigger Big Gains In Energy

by Tom Bowley

The bottoming formation in crude oil ($WTIC) continues to take shape and the beneficiary clearly has been the energy ETF (XLE).  Since dipping below $40 per barrel to begin August, the WTIC has rallied more than 20% in the past three weeks and is now nearing $50 per barrel.  A break above $50-$52 per barrel would be technically significant as it would confirm a bottoming (and quite...  Read More

ChartWatchers

Three Natural Gas Plays Flaring Up

by Greg Schnell

Long considered the ugly end of the energy business, the Natural Gas business is slowly starting to return. For those following the Commodities Countdown and Canadian Technician webinars, this will not be new. Three charts this week have really started to break away and look like a solid area for the 4th quarter. Encana (ECA) has really been moving and looks set to continue...  Read More

ChartWatchers

The Squeeze Play is on for the Gold and T-Bond ETFs

by Arthur Hill

The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are two of the best performing asset class ETFs this year and both remain in clear uptrends. GLD is up over 26% year-to-date and TLT is up around 16%. One would not expect bonds and gold to be leading at the same time. The indicator window shows the 65-day Correlation Coefficient (GLD,TLT) to confirm the positive relationship. Notice that gold...  Read More

Fri, Aug 19

ChartWatchers

NDX New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards have been quiet since the beginning of the month when we saw the OEX, SPX and Dow all switch to short-term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. The NDX which has been enjoying a steep rally, has stalled. In so doing, momentum switched negative and...  Read More

TechniTrader

Martha Stokes: Trading Options using StockCharts

by Martha Stokes

The Modern and Simpler Approach to Options For many Retail Traders, trading options may seem intimidating. This is because most traders are using the outdated 1990's style options strategies, indicators, and theories. The Options Market like the stock market, has undergone massive internal structural changes in the past couple of years. The giant Buy Side Institutions used to  Read More

Members Only

DecisionPoint Alert

SPY Holding Short-Term Support - NDX NEW PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

Big news is the new PMO SELL signal on the Nasdaq 100 Scoreboard. We haven't seen changes on these boards for a couple of weeks. There are annotated charts of the NDX and the other Scoreboard indexes in the DecisionPoint LIVE public ChartList for your review. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is  Read More