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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

The Three Dow Averages Are Giving Bearish Messages

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, October 18th at 5:00pm ET. My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the heavy selling that's taken place during October, my weekend message showed a number of serious negative divergences showing up on the market's weekly and monthly charts. Yesterday's message included the Sector Rotation Model which showed that rotation into consumer staples, utilities Read More 

ChartWatchers

Can Strong Earnings Provide a Safe Haven into Year End?

by John Hopkins

The market has been under fire for the past two weeks. Volatility has spiked. Traders have bailed as they've sold on rallies. Bad news is bad news. Good news is bad news. No one wants to touch stocks! We can take a look at Netflix as a great example of the mindset of traders at the moment as it reported strong earnings, gapped up sharply on strong volume then a day later gave all those gains back. We can ask ourselves - if the overall market environment was bullish, would Netflix's gains have held? Possibly, though there's no way of telling. But we may well find that the pullback in Read More 

ChartWatchers

Here's A Stock That Regularly Beats Its Earnings Estimates

by John Hopkins

We're approaching another earnings season, setting up trading opportunities in the normally bullish fourth quarter.  While we favor waiting to see quarterly earnings reports and the market's reaction to those reports, we also know many of you try to trade companies prior to their better-than-expected reports.  History never provides us guarantees of future results, but it can at least make us aware of tendencies. Take a look at WW Grainger's (GWW) track record over the past four quarterly earnings reports: Not only have EPS numbers come in ahead of Read More 

ChartWatchers

When Panicked Selling Kicks In, Look To The VIX For A Bottom Call

by Tom Bowley

It was a brutal week for many areas of the stock market, but mostly those areas that have led the charge for so long.  Stocks that for one to two years or more rarely saw a significant pullback suddenly couldn't find buyers this week.  Unfortunately, that's how Wall Street works.  Ever notice how quickly the market sells and how long it takes to recover.  The January-February episode was a perfect example.  The Dow Jones lost more than 3000 points in 10 trading days!  Then the recovery back to the January high took more than 7 months.  The answer would be Read More 

ChartWatchers

DP Scoreboards Lose Their Shine - NDX Loses 2 More BUY Signals - Dow Adds PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The BUY signals are starting to peel away on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The Dow which has been the most stout, but after the corrective move of the past two days, it couldn't hang on to its "all green" Scoreboard. Technology, as most know, has been hit particularly hard over the past month or more, so I'm not surprised to see the NDX Scoreboard flipping quickly to bearish signals. Here's where these signal changes come from.  The Dow saw its Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) negative crossover its signal line to generate the SELL signal Read More 

ChartWatchers

Breadth Indicators Dive To 2 Year Lows

by Greg Schnell

Before heading off on my vacation, I mentioned the breadth indicators for the major exchanges were getting weak, but the breadth for the $SPX was still very bullish. This week the main exchanges saw the breadth crash to twenty-four month lows. The Bullish percent index for the NASDAQ is now below 50% but more importantly it has declining tops since the beginning of the year. Notice the series of lower highs on the BPI compared to the higher highs on the $COMPQ. This divergence is huge and meaningful. It is very important that the market bounce from here. Notice at the other major Read More 

ChartWatchers

Utilities Shine as Market Takes a Turn

by Arthur Hill

Utilities are not the most exciting stocks in the world, but the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is the third best performing sector since February and the second best performing sector last week. The could have further to run. Let's look at the charts. The first chart shows weekly bars over the last ten years. Prices are moving from the lower left to the upper right and there is clearly a long-term uptrend at work. The red lines show pullbacks within this uptrend, the longest of which was 32 weeks in 2015.    The top window shows XLU without the dividend adjustments Read More 

ChartWatchers

NIFTY breaks trend. Pharma and IT show relative strength

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Indian $NIFTY Index dropped out of an almost three-year uptrend at the close of last week. The rising support line that started at the low in early 2016 did not manage to hold up and was clearly broken during last week's market action. This move changes the dynamics of the Indian stock market. On the weekly chart above a new series of lower highs and lower lows has not (yet) begun. So technically it is not a downtrend yet. On the daily chart, however, a series of lower highs and lower lows is visible already since the first week of September. Relative Rotation Read More 

ChartWatchers

Russell 2000 Is Now Retesting Its 200-Day Average

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, October 5th at 2:02pm ET. Tuesday's message showed the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index being the first of the major market indexes to fall below its 50-day line, and warned that the selloff in small cap stocks might be a warning that the stock uptrend is losing momentum. Small caps continue to lead large cap stocks lower. Chart 5 shows the RUT falling today to its lowest level in four months and sitting right on its 200-day average. That's an important test for small cap stocks, and possibly for Read More 

ChartWatchers

A Warm Welcome To Our Newest Contributing Author, David Keller, CMT

by Grayson Roze

Okay, I’ll admit, this was just about the worst-kept secret of the year. That said, it doesn’t detract from the good news. Last week, we launched an expanded partnership with David Keller and officially introduced his new blog, The Mindful Investor. As many of you know, David was one of our new faces at ChartCon 2018. His presentation was a tremendous hit, and after a flood of positive responses, it was clear that we needed to bring more of his commentary onto the site. David's passion for the markets and his extensive industry experience will allow him to Read More 

ChartWatchers

Health Care Has Become the New Market Leader

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, September 28th at 12:29pm ET. The three strongest sector leaders since the start of this year have been consumer cyclicals, technology, and healthcare (in that order). But those numbers don't reflect the fact that healthcare has become the strongest market sector over the past three and six month periods. In other words, healthcare is the new market leader. The three relative strength lines in Chart 1 represent consumer cyclicals (blue line), technology (red line), and healthcare (green line) Read More 

ChartWatchers

Aerospace Starts A Launch Sequence

by Greg Schnell

With another SpaceX launch and more news this week about delivering multiple cargos on one delivery rocket, the Aerospace industry continues to accelerate. This week, the group of public aerospace companies all sported nice chart setups heading into the fourth quarter. I have circled the SCTR rankings. I did a review of UTX on a Don't Ignore This Chart article titled United Technologies UTX Pushed The Penthouse Button. Let's look at a few more below. TransDigm is flying. While Boeing gets all the love, this chart has just had a nice reset and looks ready to make Read More 

ChartWatchers

Three Great Stocks And An Offer To Download My Strong Earnings ChartList

by Tom Bowley

Special Offer If you would like a copy of my Strong Earnings ChartList, simply follow these steps and I'll send it to you: 1.  You MUST be a paid Extra or Pro member of StockCharts.com as that's the only way you can download my ChartList.  If you're unsure of your account service level, click on the "Your Account" tab in the upper right hand corner when you're on the SC.com home page.  At the very top of the Your Account page under Membership Details, you'll find your service level.  That must say either Extra or Pro.  If it says Basic, you will need to Read More 

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