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November 2011

ChartWatchers

ANNOUNCING THE 2012 STOCKCHARTS UNIVERSITY SEMINAR SERIES

by Chip Anderson

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! We have a jammed-packed edition of ChartWatchers for you this week.  With the holiday season approaching fast (too fast if you ask me!) we're announcing several great Store specials that I urge you to look into to.  Click here for more details (or just skip down to the "Site News" section of this email). STOCKCHARTS UNIVERSITY SEMINAR SERIES In addition, I am thrilled to announce the next step in the evolution of StockCharts University, the SCU Seminar Series.  In 2012, we're going to hold three one-day SCU seminars - one in Los Read More 

ChartWatchers

DON'T MISS THE HOLIDAY SPECIALS FROM STOCKCHARTS.COM

by Chip Anderson

SEND SOMEONE THE GIFT OF CHARTING WITH THE STOCKCHARTS HOLIDAY GIFT PACK! - We've bundled 6 months of our Extra service with one of John Murphy's best books, "The Visual Investor" and our exclusive 3-disc DVD set from this year's ChartCon conference. We also tossed in a logo baseball hat and travel mug. The price is only $99.95 - that's $120 less than normal! AND we'll wrap it all up an a nice box and send it to whomever you specify along with your personal note. That's one more item checked off your holiday shopping list thanks to StockCharts. What could be better?  But hurry - Read More 

ChartWatchers

LONGER-TERM INDICATORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE

by John Murphy

I'm going to focus on some longer term indicators today. And, right now, the ones I'm looking at still warrant a lot of caution. Chart 1, for example, shows the % NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average ($NYA200R). Generally speaking, the line has to be above 50% to be in an uptrend. In other words, more than half of NYSE stocks need to be above their 200-day averages. But I prefer to use the 60% and 40% lines. During market corrections, it's not unusual for the black line to drop to 40% before turning back up again. Drops below 40% usual signal a bear market. Moves back Read More 

ChartWatchers

BULLISH CONSOLIDATION FOR LIGHT CRUDE

by Richard Rhodes

Over the past three months, we've seen the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures ($WTIC) rise from low of $75/barrel to a high of $102/barrel, which is a rather large move in a very short period of time in what many consider to be a modest "risk-on" environment. Certainly the other commodity complexes have no responded in such a violently higher manner. This begs the question as to what is going on fundamentally and from a sentiment point-of-view. We can't find much that is fundamentally bullish; thus we must attribute this to simply more buying than selling and the ongoing Middle Read More 

ChartWatchers

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM CLIMAXES ATTRACT ATTENTION

by Carl Swenlin

On Thursday the S&P 500 broke down from a triangle formation, which is a kind of continuation pattern. Continuation patterns are so named because, when the pattern ends, prices are normally expected to continue in the direction they were trending before the continuation pattern (consolidation) began. In this case, the breakdown was not what was expected, and puts a bearish shade on a picture that been bullish since the October low. A positive aspect to the price breakdown is that a number of ultra-short-term indicators hit climactic oversold readings the same day. On the chart Read More 

ChartWatchers

OPTIONS MANIPULATION

by Tom Bowley

For an options expiration week, volume was quite light. Any time volume is light, the threat of market manipulation grows. As we headed into last week, max pain suggested a potential 2.5%-3.5% move lower in equity prices, depending on the index. With hindsight now, we see the major indices fell in the 3.0%-4.0% range last week. Coincidence? I have my own personal feelings, so you be the judge. One stock that was DEEP in terms of in-the-money puts was Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR). Take a look at this chart BEFORE last week's options manipulation:  It was clearly in the market makers' Read More 

ChartWatchers

Russell 2000 ETF Hits Big Resistance

by Arthur Hill

A number of bearish developments have emerged on the weekly chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). This weekly chart extends two and a half years to cover the long-term situation. First, the ETF broke support with a sharp decline in August and then exceeded the July 2009 trendline. Second, the subsequent bounce met resistance near broken support and the 61.80% retracement. This is what would be expected from a counter trend advance within a bigger downtrend. Third, RSI broke below 40 for the first time since the rally began 2009. The 50-60 zone now becomes resistance. Despite Read More 

ChartWatchers

UPCOMING SPEAKING ENGAGEMENTS, PUBLIC CHARTLIST CONTEST CHANGES

by Chip Anderson

GREG SCHNELL AND TOM BOWLEY IN CALGARY  First off, Tom Boley and Greg Schnell - two of our great market commentators - are teaming up to talk in Calgary this week.  They have already presented there Saturday morning, but if you missed that presentation, they will also be presenting on Tuesday evening.  Click here for all the details. CHIP ANDERSON AT THE AAII CONVENTION IN VEGAS  Chip will be giving his talk on Friday afternoon at the AAII convention at the Cosmopolitan Hotel in Las Vegas.  If you are attending the convention, be sure to stop by and say Hi! Read More 

ChartWatchers

STOCKCHARTS JOINS FORCES WITH S.R.C. FOR GREAT HISTORICAL CHARTS

by Chip Anderson

I am extremely happy to announce that StockCharts.com is now working with the good folks at Security Research Company (S.R.C.) to bring you high-quality historical financial charts based on their huge database of financial information.  In case you are not familiar with SRC's work, they've been publishing their amazing charts since they started back in 1933(!) primarily in printed form and more recently in online format.  You can learn more about SRC by clicking this link. The first result of our new association with SRC is an amazing new wall chart that is only Read More 

ChartWatchers

FINANCIALS STILL HOLD THE KEY

by Tom Bowley

When you review the history of the stock market, you see that financials tend to hold the key for whether a stock market advance is sustainable or not.  The long-term chart below still raises questions about the sustainability of not only the October rally, but also the multi-year rally off of 2009 lows.  Why?  Well, mainly because the relative strength line of financials has been in a downtrend since August 2009.  Check out the chart below:   From the March 2009 lows until the end of August 2009, the S&P 500 rose from a low of 666 to a high of Read More 

ChartWatchers

SUSTAINED RALLY IN THE FUTURE?

by Richard Rhodes

Quite simply, the past 5-week rally has been breathtaking, but it remains to be seen whether it has "legs" of whether it does not. It is of our opinion, that it "does have legs", and it does so given the Financials (XLF) are rallyingbut more importantly - the Homebuilders (XHB) are leading the rally. And, we think the XHB shall continue leading and actually do better than anyone anticipates at this juncture. The "head & shoulders" bottom on the weekly chart is very clear; although it is not yet confirmed. However, the 30-week moving average is on the verge of being given, with the Read More 

ChartWatchers

WATCHING THE RESISTANCE BREAKOUTS IN XLK AND XLY

by Arthur Hill

Earlier this week I noted that the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the Russell 2000 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF were testing broken resistance. The October surges produced breakouts and it is important that these resistance breakouts hold. Basic technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance levels turn into support. Failure to hold these breakouts would be a sign of weakness. Looking at the key offensive sectors, I see similar support levels from broken resistance. These levels are holding so far and these SPDRs have established similar support zones with the lows of the last few weeks. The Read More 

ChartWatchers

GOLD STOCKS START TO SHINE AGAIN

by John Murphy

My Market Message from Tuesday of last week (October 25) wrote about new signs of strength emerging from an oversold gold-mining group. It showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) bouncing off chart support along its 2011 reaction lows (see circles in Figure 1). In Thursday's trading, the GDX has moved back above its 50- and 200-day moving averages for the first time in three months. The GDX/SPX relative strength ratio (below Figure 1) is starting to bounce again as well. The upturn in the ratio took place in early August when the stock market started to weaken. After pulling back Read More 

ChartWatchers

DOLLAR-WEIGHTED VOLUME

by Carl Swenlin

Over 10 years ago I developed an indicator called Dollar-Weighted Volume (DWV). It could be that I reinvented the wheel, but I am not aware of anyone else who uses this indicator. DWV is variation of On-Balance Volume (OBV), which was developed by Joe Granville. DWV is calculated by multiplying the daily volume of each stock in a given market index by the closing price, then adding (or subtracting, if the stock closes down) the result to the cumulative total of DWV for the index. The resulting indicator is an expression of the trend of money rather than just volume. DWV is Read More