Commodities Countdown

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown

Can Commodities Roar Back ? 2018-06-22 Video

by Greg Schnell

What a wild week for Commodities and Currencies! It has been a battle for about a month and last week the entire commodity complex was under pressure as the US Dollar moved back toward 94. This week it looks like the US Dollar is rolling over at resistance which sent some commodity related stocks surging. On the chart above, the divergence between the May high and the June high is critical to note. This lower high is what we would expect if this was going to retrace.  The next chart looks at the US Dollar on a weekly chart where the momentum shown on Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Get Smoked 2018-06-15 - Video

by Greg Schnell

Well, after the big buildup of the last two recordings, we saw the dramatic climax to the big buildup in tension. Oil, Gasoline, Heating oil, Copper, Steel, Aluminum, Rare earth metals, Coal, Natural Gas stocks, Gold and Silver all had a bad week. With the G7 meeting, the Singapore summit, another Fed meeting on Wednesday, Mario Draghi speaking on Thursday and Quadruple Witching Options Expiration on Friday, the week was loaded for drama. While the indexes were moderate for the week, the commodities got smoked.  Oil wasn't too bad, but the stocks around oil, spilled! Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Big Week For Commodities 2018-06-08

by Greg Schnell

Well, the tension in the commodities space couldn't be much higher. Oil has pulled back 10%, Natgas can't get out of its own way. Gold continues to do nothing, Copper exploded higher, rare earth metals broke lower, Silver broke a trend line, Soybean and Corn dropped. What a mixed basket.  A look at the USD is always important and this week, it looks like it is trying to roll over. The MACD is right at zero so this is a very important point for the dollar. A break higher here, suggests a return of the $USD bull market. A break down here pretty much marks the final high on a big Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Sector Reversals In US Markets

by Greg Schnell

The wobble in the market on Tuesday was quite significant. This appeared to start last week with the reversal in oil and bonds. Crude is hovering around the 50 day moving average. You can see on the chart below, the 50 MA is pretty important. Watch for this low to hold. On the video I talked about the $66.66 level from January to see if support / resistance would hold. Take note that the related stock ETF's are still well above the 50 MA.  FRAK, the unconventional oil ETF, broke through a big downtrend last week but rolled over last week Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodity Volatility 2018-05-18 Video

by Greg Schnell

I posted an additional article regarding this weeks video. This is a link specific to the video. The US Dollar is working real hard against the commodity up trend, but some of the commodities cannot be suppressed. Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and KOL are all soaring.  I mentioned a few weeks ago that the marijuana stocks were starting to soar. Jim Cramer interviewed the Canopy Growth Corporation CEO Friday and that sent the whole industry group surging. The chart shape is great so I would look for this trend to continue into the summer. Below is the Canadian listing for Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Commodity Market Pressures Heat Up

by Greg Schnell

Well, another challenging week for Commodities investors. A sudden surge in the $USD early in the week sent gold traders reeling and industrial metals trading pondering the recent breakouts. I have shown the UUP where you can see the large gap early in the week. As the Dollar approaches resistance, this week will be filled with some volatility. On a bigger scale, the level the dollar is currently approaching is very important. You can also see the 94.86 level that is shown on the UUP chart above in November. Needless to say Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Battle Royale Sets Up For Commodities 2018-05-11

by Greg Schnell

Metals and Metal Miners surge Oil Pops, oil stocks have a gusher week Copper, Lithium, Rare Earth Metals, Steel all surge Currencies struggle for trend direction Marijuana stocks surge It was a wild and woolly week in Commodityville!  Oil rocketed above $70 and the oil stocks price action went vertical. The humdrum sleeper Exxon shot 6.7% which is the biggest positive move on the chart. Other majors like Shell broke out to new highs. With the sudden surge in crude oil, the XLE and XOP charts are a long way above the 50-day Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodity Countries Surge 2018-05-04 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodity Countries Canada and Australia charts both start to surge this week with Canada making a new three month high. Australia. When compared to the $SPX, we can see that commodity countries are starting to take the lead on the very short term. It's been a long time since they have outperformed. Below is the $SPX. It would need to rally 100 points to get back to three month highs. However, the MACD shape looks like it could start to turn up on the $SPX chart. Then we'll have to watch to see if they can keep up or lead an advancing $SPX. Crude oil closed Friday Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The US Dollar Breaks Out 2018-04-20

by Greg Schnell

US Dollar breaks out Commodity currencies breaks down Oil stalls near $70 Gold miners start to outperform the metal Bonds can't maintain 3% breakout The $USD momentum (PPO) turned up over a month ago. Finally the $USD followed through on the move. This is critical for commodities. While it might not follow through the same week, a fast moving dollar would suggest weakness in commodities. The Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar both broke down this week. Even the British Pound broke down this week which has a lot of commodity Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Have You Noticed this Trend In Corrections?

by Greg Schnell

Earnings season happens four times a year. January, April, July and October. While most of us know that the bulk of earnings come out in those months, there are still a lot of stocks that deliver results between earnings periods. The topic for today is to share a pattern that sometimes sets up around earnings periods for the last 8 years. Essentially, as the earnings month draws to a close, the market makes a top and then resumes a rally near the first of the following earnings month. The example this year would be the market topping January 26th and rallying April 1, 2018. There is a Read More 

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