Gold and Oil seem to be the hotbed of activity in the commodity space right now. While not unusual, both appear to have rolled over. You can watch the Commodity Countdown Webinar from Thursday, March 24th by clicking this link.
Gold mining stocks appear to have reversed. The MACD is very high and has rolled over for now. This would appear to be a consolidation of gains for now. Staying with the position of selling the miners but not shorting the miners back on March 7th, we are awaiting a new signal to get back in. Horizontal support around $20 did not hold, and the GDX:GLD ratio has broken down again.
Here is the weekly chart of $GOLD. This is currently making lower lows and lower highs every week. However, on this chart, we have a bull market signal on the RSI so we are expecting a strong move from the next rally higher.
$WTIC marked its top at the 200 DMA and at contract rollover. This has the potential to roll down and test the prior low. So far, this still has all the signals of a bear market and no bull market traits.
For the $SPX, whether you use the slope of the line from the closing value of the February low or the slightly more gradual uptrend shown in blue, the $SPX chart broke the recent trend late last week. By itself, this has very little significance, but in a bear market (according to the weekly RSI for $SPX), caution is warranted that this could be an intermediate top. We can also see that the rally got us back to the unchanged level for the year.
Here is the weekly RSI for the $SPX using the same setting as the Gold and Oil charts above.
There are lots of interesting charts and topics on the Commodities Countdown 20160324 webinar archive. I will also be hosting Martin Pring for his webinar on Tuesday, March 29th. You can click here to register. Martin Pring Market Roundup Live 20160329.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.
