DecisionPoint March 15, 2019 at 06:40 PM
At the end of last week I was looking forward to some more selling to extend the decline that had started from the March 4 top. But no. Price rebounded off last Friday's low, eventually setting a new high for the rally off the December lows. However, on Friday we got a signal that has me looking for a short-term market top very soon. The signal comes from the VIX panel on the chart below. You'll note that I use a different presentation of the VIX than what you will normally see. First I use a log scale to enhance the definition in the lower ranges, and I reverse the scale so that it Read More
DecisionPoint March 13, 2019 at 09:41 PM
We have a new signal to add to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, as the OEX triggered a Long-Term BUY signal on Monday. All of the large-cap Scoreboard indexes are now on Trend Model BUY signals in three timeframes. Additionally, we acquired two new BUY signals on Oil and Bonds, which I'll cover in the sections below. To our DP faithful, don't miss this Friday's show at 4:30p EST, where Carl and I will go through the major markets as well as the Big Four. Each week, we also add a "bonus" segment with charts that we believe you must see before starting the week ahead. Read More
DecisionPoint March 08, 2019 at 05:54 PM
It took over two weeks, but the market top we've been looking for finally materialized. Price broke down through a rising bottoms line that goes back to the beginning of January. Also violated was the bottom of the trading range that has lasted over two weeks. At very overbought levels, the daily PMO finally topped and crossed down through the signal line. I am assuming that this is the beginning of a move that could possibly retest the December lows, but more clarification on that later. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an Read More
DecisionPoint March 06, 2019 at 07:52 PM
This will be fairly brief today, as I am in the process of moving to a new home and it's a bit crazy over here. It's important to note the new ST PMO BUY signal, which occurred on a PMO positive crossover on the SPX daily chart. Also, the bearish wedge pattern has finally executed on the SPX. In addition, I would like to point out on the DP Sector Summary below that XLK had a positive 50/200-EMA crossover, which generated a new LT Trend Model BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week Read More
DecisionPoint March 05, 2019 at 08:34 PM
The new Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY signals triggered on the SPX yesterday (3/4) and on the NDX today (3/5). We are probably seeing these just in time for a pullback or correction ahead. The Dow seems to agree, as it generated a new ST PMO SELL signal. I've highlighted the new signals below. Note that the OEX hasn't triggered the same long-term signal yet, while the Dow is the first to lose its ST PMO BUY signal. Underneath the signal table, I have included charts of all four of the Scoreboard Indexes. Read More
DecisionPoint March 01, 2019 at 06:26 PM
The McClellan Summation Index (ratio-adjusted version) has had the longest uninterrupted upside run since 2003, when the market was coming up off of the 2000-2002 bear market lows. The indicator is very overbought and it is trying to top, so we should expect some kind of corrective action over the next several weeks. When I say "some kind" of corrective action, I'm thinking along the lines of a move down to test the December lows, but if we look on the chart below at what happened in 2003, it may not be any worse than several weeks of consolidation. Looking at market Read More
DecisionPoint February 27, 2019 at 06:46 PM
In mid-week DP Alerts, I generally only review the SPX, as it is a Scoreboard index. However, DecisionPoint signals are reported to Timer Digest based on the SPY. Yesterday, the SPY generated a Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY signal. The SPX still has some ground to cover before it can log the same signal. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) triggered a LTTM BUY signal today. With the Sector Scoreboards looking so healthy, it is hard to be a hardcore bear. I'm not going to fight the charts, as Carl would say; instead, I will listen more closely. I still believe we are in for a correction Read More
DecisionPoint February 22, 2019 at 07:15 PM
In a basketball game on Wednesday a Nike shoe literally peeled off the foot of 285-pound, 6-foot-7-inch Zion Williamson. The resulting knee injury was regrettable, but the reporting of the incident was rather amusing. For one thing, the video of the incident ran over, and over, and over. I considered offering pair of Dr. Scholls running shoes (well, maybe walking shoes) with my autograph to anyone who could prove they had seen the video more than I did (estimated 4,783 times). Quite often it was breathlessly reported that NKE was down substantially on the news, but at the lowest point it Read More
DecisionPoint February 20, 2019 at 06:10 PM
Today, we had two important signal changes. First, on the Dow Industrials, a LT Trend Model BUY signal triggered as the 50-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA. Second, USO generated an IT Trend Model BUY signal. I imagine the first question that will be asked about this new LT BUY signal is whether this is the end of the bear market. This is certainly good news for bulls, but indicators are very overbought and you can see that OBV tops are about even with each other while price tops are steeply rising. The DecisionPoint Alert Read More
DecisionPoint February 15, 2019 at 06:43 PM
There are some indicators that have been warning of a price top for a couple of weeks, but the market just keeps powering upward. (1) There is an OBV reverse divergence, where the OBV has exceeded its December top well ahead of price. This means that heavy volume hasn't been able to bring price along with it. (2) Price has formed a rising wedge, which we normally expect to break down. (3) The VIX hit the upper Bollinger Band at the beginning of this month, which is frequently a top signal. The fact that the market has been ignoring these negative signs is bullish, but the situation does Read More
