DecisionPoint November 16, 2018 at 07:21 PM
A lot of people are seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing, and it is really not hard to spot. From Friday's close, it will take a rally of a little less than 3% for price to reach the neckline. Add another 4.5% and new, all-time highs will be made. Some indicators favoring a positive resolution are: (1) contracting volume across the head and right shoulder; (2) the OBV reverse divergence; and (3) the PMO is confirming by bottoming above the signal line. Some negative factors are: (1) the bull market trend line has been broken; (2) the formation is too close to the all-time Read More
DecisionPoint November 14, 2018 at 08:01 PM
Before I get into the nitty gritty here, I want to relate a story of what literally (yes, literally) just happened to me about 10 minutes ago. I got a text from my 10-year old nephew, "Is there anyway I can check what is happening to the Nestle stock in the future?" Mind you, this has never happened, even remotely. Let's just say that my Dad and I are the only family members who talk about the market. My brother said that he was likely interested because he found out that Nestle owns a lot of other companies and brands (and he likes chocolate). So, being the good Aunt that I am, I Read More
DecisionPoint November 13, 2018 at 07:51 PM
The OEX added a ST Trend Model SELL signal yesterday, and today the SPX will join with its own ST Trend Model SELL signal. These signals are generated on 5/20-EMA crossovers. When it is a positive crossover, it is a BUY signal. When it is a negative crossover, the signal can be either a SELL or Neutral. To determine which bearish signal to use, note the placement of the crossover. If it occurred above the 50-EMA it is a ST Trend Model Neutral signal. If it occurred below the 50-EMA (like today's signal), it is a SELL signal. Even if price had Read More
DecisionPoint November 12, 2018 at 05:43 PM
The whipsaw Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal generating on the OEX Friday below its 50-EMA was the culprit for today's ST Trend Model SELL signal. Remember that ST Trend Model signals are generated by 5/20-EMA crossovers in relation to the 50-EMA. A positive crossover is always a BUY signal. However, if a negative 5/20-EMA crossover occurs, there are two signals that can be generated, Neutral and SELL. If the negative crossover occurs below the 50-EMA, it is a SELL signal; otherwise, it is a Neutral signal. Today deep decline brought Read More
DecisionPoint November 09, 2018 at 05:38 PM
Last week SPY was below the cyclical bull market rising trend line. This week there was a post-election pop on Wednesday that caused SPY to recapture that rising trend line. Will that breakout hold, or is it a fakeout? There are two features on the daily chart that say to me that the latter is the case. First, the OBV line has formed a negative divergence, and, second, the VIX has topped at the top Bollinger Band, an event that in the last year has usually signaled a price top. At this point I'll be looking for a second trend line failure and lower prices. Read More
DecisionPoint November 07, 2018 at 07:48 PM
Lots of new BUY signals are appearing on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards in the short-term timeframe. This is good news for bulls, but I don't think they can breathe easy just yet. This rally reminds me of the last big rally we had in October that was not fueled by heavy volume. That rally failed. Today volume on the SPX was just under average. I would expect a day that finally released pent up bullish energy would have produced at least above average volume. Pundits are saying that the 'scared' money hasn't re-entered and that is why volume was low today. Read More
DecisionPoint November 07, 2018 at 11:40 AM
The Dow and SPX both triggered PMO BUY signals after the close yesterday. In addition, the Dow printed a ST Trend Model BUY signal. I will be writing a more comprehensive blog this evening on these signal changes that occurred on the close yesterday. I just wanted to give everyone the heads up before tonight. I would also like to note that after the close today, the NDX and OEX should also log PMO BUY Signals. Read tonight's DP Alert for details. The PMO BUY signals are triggered when the PMO crossed above its signal line. The ST Trend Model BUY signal is Read More
DecisionPoint November 05, 2018 at 11:55 AM
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is nothing if not repetitive. AAPL experiences frenzied, parabolic advances that are followed by equally dramatic corrections. This has happened no less than three times in the last 11 years with an average correction of -48%. Now it appears to be happening again, as price has recently broken down through the most recent parabolic arc. To me the most obvious downside target is about 127, a decline of about -45%. As a technical target it looks reasonable, and it falls in line with the magnitude of previous corrections. Caveat: This is a Read More
DecisionPoint November 02, 2018 at 06:39 PM
In the Weekly Wrap I have been saying that a short-term buy of SPY should not be considered until the daily PMO turns up. As it happens, the PMO turned up on Thursday, but I must confess that I wasn't thrilled. When the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) turns up, we should view it as a possible short-term BUY signal; however, there are plenty of caveats to that statement. For one thing, we want to see the PMO make a smooth bottom after a nice, smooth decline. I have highlighted two of what I consider to be the best looking PMO bottoms on the chart. The problem with the most recent one is Read More
DecisionPoint October 31, 2018 at 07:36 PM
It's been some time since I've written about the monthly charts. Carl usually is the lucky one to cover them given the end of the month often hits on a Friday when he writes the Weekly Wrap. I thought today I'd cover the monthly charts for the DP Scoreboard indexes as well as a look at the SP400 ETF (IJH) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). I'll finish it off with the monthly charts of the "Big Four", Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds. Watch tomorrow's MarketWatchers LIVE show at 12:00p EST where I'll be talking through all of these charts with more detail. You might also be able to catch the Read More
