SPY began the week with a breakout on very high volume that subsequently looks like a minor blowoff, as price retreated back into the June trading range. The expansion of New Highs on Monday failed to match the climactic level of New Highs on June 2, and a PMO top implies that we could be in for more churning, and maybe a bit of a decline.
The S&P 500 triggered a new PMO SELL signal yesterday at the close. Today, the S&P 100 joined in with its own PMO SELL signal. At this point, the Dow is the only one holding onto a PMO BUY signal, but a quick peek at the chart and we can see the PMO has topped and is heading down.
Today on MarketWatchers LIVE (airs M/W/F Noon - 1:30p EST) during the regular market updates, I noticed technology was rallying strongly. If you recall, the Nasdaq has been taking it on the chin more than the other major indexes on declines which is why the NDX is the only index Scoreboard carrying a PMO SELL signal. The question is whether we will see more rally. Below is the intraday Market Summary (the link is on the members homepage). An almost 1% move higher for the NDX today when the other indexes closed lower.
No new signals yet on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, but with index PMOs in decline, I suspect we will see some more if the bulls can't get a rally to stick. Last Friday, the OEX weekly PMO had a negative crossover SELL signal.
About three weeks ago I began looking for the market to consolidate or correct because of price being very overbought based upon its extreme departure from the 200EMA. So far we have two weeks of price churning sideways, and that has gotten the technical indicators in a condition that promises more of the same, if not an outright correction. Let's take a closer look.
No new signal changes to report, but I do want to mention that the PMO for the NDX continues lower with no hesitation. For the other three indexes, the PMO BUY signals are intact, but short-term PMOs are now all declining.
Yesterday saw the addition of a PMO SELL signal in the short term (daily chart) for the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, if you look at the other three, their PMOs have turned up today. Despite a slowing market, Gold has struggled since its unsuccessful test of overhead resistance and now Bonds have stalled. Meanwhile, the Dollar has bounced off support and appears headed for a bull market.
As the market closed, I received a Technical Alert that the NDX had triggered a PMO SELL signal. Additionally, I received notice that a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal just occurred today on the Financial SPDR (XLF). I've updated the NDX Scoreboard. It is the first PMO SELL signal to occur since the recent pullback. It's not surprising as we've been seeing the technology sector hit hard over the past week with big declines from major players like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Facebook (FB).
Last week I wrote: ". . . the spike in S&P 500 New Highs makes me think that the market may be on the verge of another consolidation or correction that could last several weeks." I still think that outlook is viable, based upon this week's price action. The market formed a short flag the first four days of this week, and while price broke out of the trading range on Friday, the breakout failed and price actually broke down through the bottom of the trading range. Price finally settled back inside the trading range, but it makes one wonder if this was a blowoff setting up a correction? Let's look deeper into the technical condition of the market.
As the week closes, we did see one new signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards that I wanted to point out. The S&P 100 (OEX) triggered a new PMO BUY signal on the weekly chart.
During today's MarketWatchers LIVE Show (12:00 - 1:30p MWF), the big news was the correction on Oil. Oil prices dropped more than 5 percent after the government reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories. After global producers cut inventories, the hope had been that supplies would lessen the current "glut", but it wasn't enough, which sent prices careening lower.