DecisionPoint February 15, 2019 at 06:43 PM
There are some indicators that have been warning of a price top for a couple of weeks, but the market just keeps powering upward. (1) There is an OBV reverse divergence, where the OBV has exceeded its December top well ahead of price. This means that heavy volume hasn't been able to bring price along with it. (2) Price has formed a rising wedge, which we normally expect to break down. (3) The VIX hit the upper Bollinger Band at the beginning of this month, which is frequently a top signal. The fact that the market has been ignoring these negative signs is bullish, but the situation does Read More
DecisionPoint February 13, 2019 at 11:33 PM
No changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. My concern now rests on the new bearish rising wedge that has appeared on the SPX chart. Not all of the indicators are confirming the recent rally. The newest change to the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard was an IT Trend Model BUY on the Energy SPDR (XLE). This now has all of the sectors on IT BUY signals. LT BUY signals are only among the defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV), Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU). The DecisionPoint Alert presents Read More
DecisionPoint February 08, 2019 at 06:18 PM
I have a theory about the market that I'm thinking of tuning up for submission to the Nobel Prize committee. It goes like this: (1) Things get better and better until they are as good as they are going get. (2) Then they get worse and worse until they're as bad as they are going to get. (3) Repeat cycle. The only problem with this theory is that we never know for sure where the extreme limit for the current cycle will be, but it is still useful to keep in mind as we listen to news about how really good or really bad things are at a given time. In his Thoughts from the Frontline last week Read More
DecisionPoint February 06, 2019 at 07:33 PM
Yesterday, I wrote about the new IT Trend Model BUY signals that are now resident on all four Scoreboards. I also noted that what used to be bearish rising wedges have become rising trend channels. Today, the Dollar posted an ST PMO BUY signal, an ST Trend Model BUY signal and an IT Trend Model BUY signal. These appear to be whipsaw signals and the bearish rising wedge on the Dollar chart is still there. You'll note that, on the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboards, we have IT Trend Model BUY signals on everything but Consumer Staples (XLP) and Energy (XLE). Read More
DecisionPoint February 05, 2019 at 11:40 PM
Just a quick bulletin to let you know that the SPX, OEX and NDX have triggered new IT Trend Model BUY signals. Though Dow got off to a head start, they are now all in line. The weekly PMO determines the IT PMO signal, which are not quite close enough to look for those BUY signals yet. You'll also notice in the charts below that all of the bearish ascending wedges have morphed into rising trend channels. It is hard to argue with such strength. At this point, we're ready for at least a pause, but it seems more likely that a throwback will break through the bottom of the channels. The Read More
DecisionPoint February 01, 2019 at 06:34 PM
On Thursday, on expanding volume, SPY broke above the declining tops line drawn from the October Top, and at the same time it broke above the 200EMA. Then on Friday the SPY 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA causing the IT Trend Model to change from NEUTRAL to a BUY signal. With this positive action, we should consider that the bull may have taken the helm, but there are some short-term caution signs. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S Read More
DecisionPoint January 30, 2019 at 08:14 PM
The market rallied nicely this morning. It started by pulling back slightly, before the less hawkish announcement that came out of the FOMC resulted in the rally pushing higher. DecisionPoint Scoreboards point to short-term strength, with BUY signals in the short term. The IT Trend Model BUY signal became official on XLF. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of Read More
DecisionPoint January 29, 2019 at 05:41 PM
Last week, the Consumer Discretionary/Cyclicals SPDR posted a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal. Today, the Financial SPDR (XLF) joined in with its own ITTM BUY signal. In the long term, we can see that the only sectors with Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY signals are the defensive groups. It's certainly positive to see other sectors beginning to participate. Why is it positive to see those two sectors posting ITTM BUY signals? Notice how, in the sector rotation model below, we already were seeing strength in Healthcare, Consumer Staples Read More
DecisionPoint January 25, 2019 at 06:47 PM
Last week we were focused on the SPY rising wedge formation, the technical expectation for which was that it would break down. Well, on Tuesday it did break down, but there was no follow through afterwards. Instead, it moved sideways for two days, then rallied on Friday, challenging Monday's highs. The result is that the wedge has almost transformed into a rising trend channel. I say "almost" because there is still a slight narrowing at the top of the channel. Nevertheless, of more immediate concern is the overhead resistance presented by the declining tops line drawn from the Read More
DecisionPoint January 23, 2019 at 07:08 PM
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are all bullish in the short term. The bearish rising wedge executed yesterday and the indicators are supporting a decline in the shorter term. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to Read More
