DecisionPoint September 21, 2018 at 06:11 PM
The market (represented by SPY) has nearly reached the top of a rising wedge formation, and the VIX has reached the top Bollinger Band on our reverse scale display. There is no guarantee, but there is a pretty good chance that a short-term top is very near. There is also the technical expectation that price will eventually break down from the rising wedge, but not necessarily on the next pullback. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More
DecisionPoint September 20, 2018 at 06:38 PM
Today I received two bullish email alerts on Natural Gas (UNG). First, the Short-Term Trend Model had triggered a BUY signal. This means the 5-EMA just crossed above the 20-EMA. Second, there was a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal that registered today as well. I hadn't looked at UNG charts in some time and I can see why, they've been anything but interesting. However, the daily, weekly and monthly charts all look quite bullish right now. Last June I wrote an article about a possible rebirth for XLRE based on the daily and weekly chart PMOs and Read More
DecisionPoint September 19, 2018 at 07:48 PM
Big news today was a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the Dow. I've noticed the bifurcation of the markets. Today saw a positive close for the Dow, OEX and SPX, but the NDX, $MID and $SML all closed lower. In the case of mid- and small-caps, they took back most of the gains they made yesterday. The daily chart for the Dow shows the breakout from the consolidation channel it's been traveling in for the past month, occurred yesterday. Today's strong rally was a nice continuation. Overhead resistance is nearing at the all-time high, but the PMO is Read More
DecisionPoint September 18, 2018 at 07:17 PM
I've been trumpeting the bearish horn on TLT for some time, but today marked a series of unfortunate events for TLT. Just last week we saw a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal and today, we got the LT Trend Model SELL signal. Add to that the execution of a serious double-top and an IT PMO SELL signal lined up for Friday on the weekly chart and you have a recipe for a long deep decline. There's a lot going on in this chart that you need to know about. When the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA while both were above the 200-EMA, an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal was born Read More
DecisionPoint September 14, 2018 at 05:45 PM
Last week I was concerned that the VIX had topped but had failed reach the top band on the chart -- a similar configuration occurred in January before the crash. This week the VIX moved close to the top of the channel, so I think we can consider that the 'gap' problem has cleared. (To clarify, I use an inverted scale for the VIX to make interpretation more intuitive, and my references are to that display.) The market is near all-time highs again, as it continues to walk up a parabolic arc. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More
DecisionPoint September 13, 2018 at 05:45 PM
No changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since the past week's PMO SELL signals were added. We've seen a slight rebound in the market the past few days and consequently, our short-term indicators are beginning to turn up from somewhat oversold territory. Unfortunately, intermediate-term indicators are still declining and some of the breadth numbers are have bearish divergences. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds Read More
DecisionPoint September 10, 2018 at 05:19 PM
As of today's market close, all four Scoreboards have moved back to PMO SELL signals. The OEX was the first to go on Thursday, followed by the SPX and NDX on Friday and the Dow today. Below are the daily charts for all four indexes with the new SELL signals annotated. The Dow is within a trading zone, but I would expect a test of the rising bottoms trendline. SPX held rising bottoms support, but I don't believe it will last. 2850 (July top) is safe support, but if it were to fail, the pullback could become more serious. Read More
DecisionPoint September 07, 2018 at 06:51 PM
Last week we were looking at a possible bearish island reversal on one hand, and nascent parabolic advance on the other. This week's decline filled the island gap, making the island proposition moot. The decline also reached down to touch the parabolic arc, but so far that 'support' has held. Of more immediate interest is the gap between the most recent VIX top and the top Bollinger Band. More on that to follow. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S Read More
DecisionPoint September 06, 2018 at 05:24 PM
The market in general is pulling back since making all-time highs last week so it isn't surprising to see PMOs now in decline. The OEX couldn't hold on to its PMO BUY signal and I suspect another decline will start flipping the other three indexes' PMOs to SELL signals as well. The OEX is traveling within an intermediate-term rising trend channel. It tested the top and has been moving lower ever since. Horizontal support at the January top failed to hold. The next logical support is at the February/March tops. However, I think price could find support before that along the less steep Read More
DecisionPoint September 05, 2018 at 05:48 PM
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain completely green, meaning all four indexes are on BUY signals in all three timeframes as far as price trend and condition. While it seems a condition we would want to celebrate, it suggests to me that the market is overextended. The consolidation and small decline on these indexes over the past week could cause a change or two to the Scoreboards, but if we see the market restart a rally after this week of little movement, signal changes would likely be avoided. The DecisionPoint Alert Read More
