DecisionPoint December 14, 2018 at 07:26 PM
The chart below shows the entire period during which I have been involved in stock market analysis, and, as you can see, the title of this article definitely does not apply to me. If a decline of -20% or more qualifies as a bear market, then I have experienced seven of them. Additionally, there were three periods which, while not qualifying as bear markets, were sufficiently unpleasant to qualify them for 'honorable mention.' I have identified the current decline with a question mark, because we won't know if it qualifies as a bear market until the the benchmark -20% decline is in Read More
DecisionPoint December 10, 2018 at 06:47 PM
I've always thought the moniker "death cross" was terribly dramatic (and I still do). However, this time around, it does seem ominous. The SPX lost its Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal, a signal that had been in place since early 2016. These signals don't come very often, so we should always take heed when they do arrive. Not only did we see those LTTM BUY signals disappear, we lost 3 out of 4 Short-Term PMO BUY signals. The Scoreboards are looking ugly. Below are the daily charts of all four Scoreboard indexes. Today's turnaround was Read More
DecisionPoint December 07, 2018 at 07:07 PM
There will probably be a lot of people mentioning that today there was a "Death Cross" on the S&P 500 chart, and this is important because a Death Cross means that the price index has entered a bear market. Specifically, on the $SPX chart (not shown) the 50-day simple moving average crossed down through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). I don't use SMAs because I believe exponential moving averages (EMAs) behave more rationally. And for signal generation and trading decisions I track SPY instead of $SPX, which can actually be traded. Also, like stocks, SPY is adjusted for Read More
DecisionPoint November 30, 2018 at 06:01 PM
I usually spend my days at my desk noodling on the computer, reading, and casually watching business television with the sound off. (My idea of retirement.) With no sound to distract/annoy me, the most dangerous part of the TV watching is the endless stream of headline banners that announce why the market is doing whatever it is doing at a given moment. The danger comes from my usual eye-rolling reaction to most of the headlines, a reaction which can be so severe as to nearly flip me over the back of my chair. Once in a while there is no doubt that a certain news item, like Fed Chair Read More
DecisionPoint November 29, 2018 at 05:59 PM
This is just a quick summary of the new DecisionPoint signals that came in. Yesterday, the SPX logged a new ST PMO BUY Signal on the "relief rally." Despite declines on the remaining indexes, they all managed to trigger new ST PMO BUY signals. I'm not looking at these new buy signals as the end of the correction; I suspect they will fail next week. Additionally, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) triggered a new IT Trend Model BUY signal. I've annotated the charts for the OEX, DOW and NDX below so you can see the new PMO BUY signals. An important note Read More
DecisionPoint November 28, 2018 at 07:40 PM
In the midst of recording this morning's MarketWatchers LIVE show, the Fed Chairman Powell's remarks were released. They were dovish and the market rallied in relief. The rally was strong enough to pull the ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) upward and trigger a new BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to Read More
DecisionPoint November 27, 2018 at 06:51 PM
The Dollar has been plugging along quietly in a gently rising trend channel, while the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has moved right along with it. A little over a week ago, the PMO crossed below its signal line and logged a PMO SELL signal. Today's rally saw an intraday high that hasn't been reached since early 2017, so it wasn't a surprise to see the PMO accelerate above its signal line for a new BUY signal. I'm liking this BUY signal. The PMO, although logging a recent SELL signal, is trending higher. Peaks have been steadily increasing Read More
DecisionPoint November 23, 2018 at 07:21 PM
This monthly chart doesn't become final until the end of this month (next Friday), but there is strong evidence here that we are in a bear market. The cyclical bull market rising trend line has been decisively broken, and the monthly PMO is below the signal line and falling. This is not an infallible indication of a bear market, but it is a fairly reliable one. In the time frame shown on this chart we can see two prior instances where the monthly PMO was similarly configured -- the 2007-2009 bear market, and the one-year correction in 2015. A rally back above the trend line is possible Read More
DecisionPoint November 20, 2018 at 07:16 PM
The Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) seem to have a few unusual characteristics in the period before bear markets. I believe that the current PMO set-up on the SPX is dangerously close to mimicking those bear market preludes. I decided to do a historical study when I noticed all four DP Scoreboard indexes had PMO tops below the zero line after a very oversold reading. This is just "eyeballing" the previous bear markets on the charts and discovering similarities. Let's start with the three new PMO SELL signals that appeared on the DecisionPoint Read More
DecisionPoint November 16, 2018 at 07:21 PM
A lot of people are seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing, and it is really not hard to spot. From Friday's close, it will take a rally of a little less than 3% for price to reach the neckline. Add another 4.5% and new, all-time highs will be made. Some indicators favoring a positive resolution are: (1) contracting volume across the head and right shoulder; (2) the OBV reverse divergence; and (3) the PMO is confirming by bottoming above the signal line. Some negative factors are: (1) the bull market trend line has been broken; (2) the formation is too close to the all-time Read More
