DecisionPoint May 25, 2018 at 06:37 PM
Last week I thought we had a good outlook based upon a bullish flag formation, but this week the market just added more sideways movement. We could still make a case for a flag being in place, but a good flag should slant down off the flagpole as a sign that some compression is building that could launch the next leg up. This sideways churning dampens my enthusiasm. Volume continues to be light compared to the 250EMA of volume, and the daily PMO has topped. My outlook is more cautious. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More
DecisionPoint May 23, 2018 at 07:04 PM
It looks like I may actually have a week without a signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Currently all trends are bullish, although momentum isn't positive in the intermediate term. The IT PMO signals are derived from the weekly PMO. The weekly PMOs are mostly flat and directionless with quite a bit of margin to cover before triggering any crossover BUY signals. Despite that, IT indicators are still quite positive and suggest a rally resumption. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and Read More
DecisionPoint May 18, 2018 at 07:16 PM
Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the entire week was calm, as price worked sideways into a flag formation. Volume for the last two weeks has been somewhat thin, which implies that market participants are not fully committed to the rally. Nevertheless, from the April low a rising trend has been established (a bottom above a Read More
DecisionPoint May 17, 2018 at 06:32 PM
The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend Model BUY signals was March 13th. This could actually be considered worrisome since it was shortly after March 13th that the rally failed and the correction resumed. I'm not looking for that. If you read the "DP Alert" I wrote yesterday, you'll see what is stirring my optimism. Read More
DecisionPoint May 16, 2018 at 06:13 PM
There still may be some growing pains to endure, but seeing Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals beginning to populate the DP Scoreboards for the first time since March. The Dow should be joining the ITTM BUY signal party very soon. I was surprised it didn't trigger today, but apparently the +0.25% rally wasn't quite enough. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each Read More
DecisionPoint May 15, 2018 at 10:33 PM
Another Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal arrived on the OEX Scoreboard. The Dow is very close to the same signal. For more information, I refer you to yesterday's article about the SPX IT Trend Model BUY signal. My analysis remains the same as yesterday. The outlook is improving a great deal for the markets, yet a day like today reminds us that weakness remains a problem. The declining tops trendline is holding up after price broke out above it. Strong support should be available at the early March bottom since it also will likely Read More
DecisionPoint May 14, 2018 at 06:22 PM
The SPX is the 2nd of the four DP Scoreboard indexes to trigger a new IT Trend Model BUY signal. This signal replaces a late March Neutral signal. I've added the OEX and Dow charts below the SPX so you can see how close they are to triggering IT Trend Model BUY signals as well. An IT Trend Model BUY signal is triggered when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA. We haven't seen the 20-EMA above the 50-EMA since mid-March so I find this signal very encouraging. This signal follows a NDX ITTM BUY signal last week. These breakouts from declining tops trendlines as well as support holding Read More
DecisionPoint May 11, 2018 at 06:54 PM
On Friday the SPY 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal for the broad market (SPY). Does this mean that I will have to reconsider my assumption that we are in a bear market? Well, I can hardly avoid it, but I still have some reservations. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock Read More
DecisionPoint May 09, 2018 at 06:41 PM
It's going to be one of those weeks apparently when we watch the DecisionPoint Scoreboards flip out. We have had seven signal changes starting May 4th. The reversals in the short-term trend is typical during volatile periods. What I'm most interested in right now are the bearish signals in the intermediate term. However, today, the first of those intermediate-term signals has moved to a BUY for the NDX. You'll also notice on our sector signal board below the DP Scoreboards summary, we are seeing some new IT BUY signals arriving. It wasn't that long ago that none of the sectors had BUY Read More
DecisionPoint May 08, 2018 at 06:07 PM
The SPX and OEX both triggered new ST Trend Model BUY signals as the 5-EMAs crossed above the 20-EMAs. However, the charts are less than impressive. We are seeing new strength on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards with four new PMO BUY signals and now 3 out of 4 indexes carrying ST Trend Model BUY signals. Yet, note on both the SPX and OEX below, price has not been able to penetrate the declining tops trendlines. I'd feel a whole lot better if these signals were arriving on a breakout. The OBV isn't making new highs in the short term either. Given the intermediate-term signals on the Read More
