DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: Promising Flag Formation

by Carl Swenlin

Nothing has happened this week to support my belief that we are in a bear market. If the market were in that much trouble, it seems to me that this week it should have headed lower. Instead, it has consolidated and formed a bullish flag formation. If the flag fulfills the technical expectation, price will move up and challenge the all-time highs set in January. If I'm right about the bear market, that's not going to happen. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P Read More 

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Why So Down on Gold?

by Erin Swenlin

I was asked during the MarketWatchers LIVE program today about my thoughts regarding Gold v. Dollar and particularly, why I'm bearish on Gold right now. I'll explain. The chart for Gold is bearish on many counts. First there is the PMO with its "bear kiss" of the signal line and continued decline. The chart pattern that is forming is a bearish double-top. The pattern will be confirmed when price breaks down below the neckline. The minimum downside target is calculated by taking the height of the pattern and extending from the neckline lower. In this case we can see that the target would Read More 

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DP Alert - ST Indicators Suggest Pullback

by Erin Swenlin

The NDX switched back to a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA which triggered the signal (the chart is below the scoreboards for your review). The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. To ensure that using this reference will be quick and painless, we are as brief as possible, and sometimes we let a chart speak for itself Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Rally Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but the shooting star is a fairly reliable sign of a short-term top. Another troublesome issue is the OBV reverse divergence. In this case, price is lower than the January high, while OBV is higher than its January top. A lot of up volume is being expended without a commensurate move in price. Not good. Read More 

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DP Alert: Bullish Indicators - Gold Surges...For Now

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards didn't show any improvement from last week as the neutral and sell signals remained in the short term. PMO SELL signals are not yet on the weekly charts for these indexes, but they are lining up. If we see a pullback on the recent rally, we will likely see these PMO Sell signals on the Scoreboards this Friday or next. For a look at those charts, go to the DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition Read More 

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Indicators Turning Up But is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

The question that continues to arise this month is, "Is it over?". This correction was deeper than many expected or was about as deep as expected but it occurred so quickly. I'm finally getting some good news on my intermediate-term indicators, but not enough for me to trumpet the end of this correction. Interestingly, short-term indicators which have been so oversold the last two days, jumped up into neutral territory. Before talking about the indicators, I think we should look at the SPY and see what price support/resistance is suggesting along with the Price Momentum Oscillator Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Think Bear Market

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I asserted that the character of the market had changed from super bullish to normal bullish, by which I meant that we should start to see more normal bull market corrections. On Monday I quickly revised that opinion and told Erin that I thought we may have entered a bear market. It is, of course, too early to have long-term technical confirmation of a bear market, but it is not too early to anticipate that bearish outcomes will be a lot more likely than we have seen in the prior two years. The last two weeks have provided plenty of evidence in this regard. Read More 

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DP Bulletin: TLT New Long-Term Trend Model SELL Signal - ST Indicators Extremely Oversold

by Erin Swenlin

Two charts you should look at now. I mentioned yesterday that TLT was going to see a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal today and it did. Additionally, ST indicators which had turned up have turned back down and have reached down into very oversold extremes. While the PMO may appear very oversold, it's not. If you take the daily chart out about 5 or 6 years, you'll see the normal range is between +2.5 to -2.5. The PMO can drop further and it doesn't appear interested in a bottom. I'm looking for the completion of the double-top pattern which would bring price down to $114. Read More 

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DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signal on Dollar - TLT Narrowly Misses Long-Term SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No one can deny that this correction has been difficult and it has certainly left investors uneasy. However, the VIX is calming down somewhat and the Swenlin Trading Oscillators have bottomed. I don't think the market is completely out of the woods from an intermediate-term indicator perspective. UUP garnered a new BUY signal just as TLT nearly triggered a new LT Trend Model SELL signal. Look for that signal tomorrow. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model Neutrals on Scoreboard Indexes - PMO SELL for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Today all four Scoreboard indexes (NDX, INDU, SPX & OEX) logged new Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signals. These signals arrived when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA. In addition, we saw a new PMO SELL signal on Gold. I've included the charts below for your review. We honestly shouldn't be overly surprised by the depth of this correction given the parabolic rallies that all of these indexes have been in for some time. I've written quite a few articles on parabolic formations and when they fail, they FAIL, quickly. The good news is that we Read More 

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