DecisionPoint October 15, 2018 at 07:22 PM
I've been updating these Scoreboards frequently starting on October 5th. Three very important signal changes arrived Friday and today. We don't generally see many updates to the Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), but on Friday both the SPX and OEX followed the NDX and logged SELL signals. Now we have a IT Trend Model Neutral signal on the SPX. I was feeling somewhat safe this morning when I looked at the Swenlin Trading Oscillators and saw that on Friday they had ticked up. When I updated the chart today, I noted that both indicators are falling again. Read More
DecisionPoint October 12, 2018 at 06:38 PM
"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms." -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day) To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be sure, it is a risky endeavor, but after Wednesday's bloodbath I suggested: For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens. A daily PMO bottom is not a foolproof signal Read More
DecisionPoint October 11, 2018 at 06:32 PM
The Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal generated today on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) replaced a May 9, 2018 BUY signal. It was another exhausting day as we watched the correction continue with prices free falling lower. Yesterday I pointed out the climactic breadth and VIX readings and suggesting a selling exhaustion was underway. I went out on a limb (which I hear cracking right now) and wrote that I'm looking for a bounce before the week ends. Breadth readings are still suggesting a selling exhaustion to me. Be aware, these are very short-term indicators so seeing a rally pop is Read More
DecisionPoint October 10, 2018 at 06:56 PM
We had another change to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. The Short-Term Trend Model initiated a Neutral signal on the Dow (chart is below Scoreboards) when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while above the 50-EMA. Weakness and fear abound, but there could be some relief on the way given the very climactic breadth readings I'm seeing today in combination with the $VIX. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil Read More
DecisionPoint October 10, 2018 at 05:34 PM
After a day like this, the first question I ask is where is support? That question is not fully answered on this daily chart, but there is something worth noting here. Volume for SPY was huge -- 248% of the 250-day average -- but SPY is a trading instrument and its volume doesn't necessarily represent the broad market. S&P 500 volume was also high, but only 138% of the average, and it is far below the volume spike of three weeks ago, when the market made its last all-time high. My point: I'm not sure that today's volume was sufficiently climactic to mark a bottom. Read More
DecisionPoint October 09, 2018 at 05:38 PM
Another BUY signal is lost on the DP Scoreboard Summary. The OEX joins the SPX and NDX with a new ST Trend Model Neutral Signal. Interestingly, today the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQEW) logged a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal. Does this portend the same for the NDX? The STTM Neutral signal was generated when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while both were above the 50-EMA. Had the crossover occurred below the 50-EMA it would've been a SELL signal. Neutral is the same as being fully hedged or in cash rather than a short position which is implied by a SELL signal. The Read More
DecisionPoint October 08, 2018 at 06:19 PM
Just a quick bulletin for my readers. The SPX just triggered a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. The 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA which generated the Neutral signal v. a SELL signal. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin Helpful DecisionPoint Links: Erin's PMO Scan DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery Read More
DecisionPoint October 05, 2018 at 07:19 PM
The root cause of the Financial Crisis was real estate speculation combined with Wall Street's perennial, casual disregard for other people's money. After the real estate market crashed, the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was put forth in order to see that real estate speculators were made whole again. Thanks to this generous, artificial stimulus, real estate prices have recovered, and a new bubble has been created. With interest rates headed back to more normal levels, we are beginning to see pressure on real estate prices. Looking at the daily chart Read More
DecisionPoint October 04, 2018 at 09:10 PM
Well that didn't last long. The NDX had finally joined the Dow with a Scoreboard complete with BUY signals on Friday. Today's pullback erased that as the PMO was yanked downward and back under its signal line. Interestingly, the NDX is the only Scoreboard index that I felt had a rising trend channel instead of a rising wedge, yet today that rising trend was broken. We can still see support around 7400, but this corrective move suggests more downside to me. The OBV is flat and indecisive. The only positive I can say is that volume didn't accompany this large decline. Volume was Read More
DecisionPoint October 03, 2018 at 05:46 PM
No new changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since last week's PMO BUY signal on the NDX. Hard to believe the OEX and SPX haven't followed suit with the Dow and NDX. The OEX is nearing the BUY signal and should trigger tomorrow barring a large decline. The SPX as you'll see still has a falling PMO, so no new BUY signal anytime soon. The DecisionPoint Alert presents an mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Read More
DecisionPoint October 01, 2018 at 11:09 AM
On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) switched to a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. It joins the Dow which already had a PMO BUY signal that was logged on 9/19/18. The SPX and OEX are the laggards right now. I've annotated the PMO BUY signal. The prominent features of this price chart are the rising bottoms trendline as well as the tiny breakout intraday. Likely helped by the new NAFTA announcement, markets are rising higher. The OEX could finish the day with a new PMO BUY signal. The dominant feature on this chart would be Read More
