DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DecisionPoint Mid-Week | Possible Short-Term Selling Exhaustion | Bearish Double-Top for USO

by Erin Swenlin

It's been a week of consolidation and pullback for the major indexes. Given the look of our very short-term indicators, I would expect to see a move to the upside by Friday, or certainly by next week. Energy has been struggling, though it remains the only sector with a Long-Term Trend Model SELL signal (the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA). Every other sector is enjoying BUY signals in the intermediate and long term. Oil is not helping the Energy sector, and it doesn't look like we will see higher prices in the near term. Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: New All-Time Highs, but Not for Small-Cap Stocks

by Carl Swenlin

While the broad market indexes are currently making all-time highs, the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index (IJR) is struggling and remains about -14% below its all-time highs. This lack of small-cap participation is a concern, because the large-caps can't carry the market forever. The OBV is currently in a reverse divergence -- the OBV is making a higher high, but price is not. This tells us that price can't move higher in spite of increased volume. Another set of S&P 600 indicators available on StockCharts.com shows the internal weakness of the small-cap Read More 

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The Most Productive Stock in My Portfolio...and How I Found It

by Erin Swenlin

Sometimes, you get more than you bargained for. That said, you stand a much better chance of finding those successful (and many times parabolic) stocks when you start with a good analysis process. The DecisionPoint Analysis Process does just that. I find my prospective investments using various technical scans, but ultimately the final decision is based on a few important indicators: the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), the On-Balance Volume (OBV) and the DecisionPoint Trend Models. The winner is Alteryx Inc (AYX), which I believe I talked Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Watch Out For BPI Trend Breaks

by Carl Swenlin

With the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite making or equaling all-time highs, it would be appropriate to check the participation behind this up surge. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) measures the percentage of stocks in a given index that have point & figure BUY signals. In January of 2018 we can see that participation was very healthy with the SPX BPI at over 80, NASDAQ BPI at 70, and the NYSE BPI over 70. At the late-2018 market top, BPI participation was significantly lower, about -15% to -20% for each index. Currently, there has been some improvement in the SPX BPI, down only -11% Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Waiting for an Excuse to Do Something

by Carl Swenlin

So much of the time it seems we are waiting for some event that will determine what the market is going to do next. Last week it was waiting for the Fed. This week it was waiting for the meeting between President Trump and President Xi tomorrow. What the market will do next depends on that meeting, but we can't know what will come of that meeting. We can, however, make an educated guess. Based upon what I have been hearing, the U.S. and China are still quite far apart in the negotiations, so it seems highly unlikely that an agreement will be reached tomorrow, or even next week, so my guess Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert Mid-Week Review: Is it Time to Get Bearish on Gold?

by Erin Swenlin

The market has cooled this week. There are no changes on the DP Scoreboard indexes, nor on the Sector Scoreboard. Indicators are starting to look worrisome, but we do need to see some digestion of last week's rally. Gold has been on fire! I'm starting to hear rumblings about a bearish move on Gold. I'll examine the positives and negatives in its section following the market review. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Short-Term Bearish Indications

by Carl Swenlin

The market closed at an all-time high on Thursday, then on Friday it hit an all-time intraday high; however, there are some technical problems: (1) a bearish rising wedge pattern has formed; (2) there is an OBV negative divergence; (3) volume has been thin since the June low; and (4) the VIX penetrated the top Bollinger Band on Thursday, indicating that a short-term price top may be in. To clarify, SPX Volume on Friday was huge, but that was because of end-of-quarter options expiration, not an indication of some kind of blow-off. Below let's see how all this fits in the broader picture Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert Mid-Week: VIX Nears Bollinger Band Break, But Short-Term Indicators are Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday, in a DP Bulletin, I covered the new IT BUY signals on the NDX and Dow. We should soon see the Dow's weekly PMO click a new IT BUY signal. That would only leave the Long-Term PMO SELL signals that still linger on the monthly charts. Indicators, minus the VIX, are very bullish. The DP Sector Scoreboard shows on Energy (XLE) on SELL signals, while the rest are on BUYs in the intermediate and long term. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signals for NDX and Dow - Bull Flags Execute

by Erin Swenlin

More changes to report on the DP Scoreboards, as well as a pending signal. Both the NDX and Dow Industrials garnered IT Trend Model BUY signals when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA for both. You'll note that the Dow is the only one left out on the IT PMO BUY signal train. However, a peek at the Dow weekly chart confirms that an IT PMO BUY signal is on tap. Currently, the weekly PMO on the Dow has made the positive crossover. However, weekly signals don't go "final" until the close on the final trading day of the week. Unless we see a serious pullback or correction, I suspect that IT Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Market Quiet Ahead of Fed; Gold Has Long-Term "Smile"

by Carl Swenlin

Sometimes I can be a little slow on the uptake, and the monthly gold chart is the latest example. This week it dawned on me that gold is in its seventh year of forming a bullish saucer, which would be the reverse equivalent of a bearish rounded top. After activating the Crystal Ball feature of SharpCharts, I am seeing the possibility of breakout and pullback, which would put a handle on the saucer, giving us a "saucer with handle" formation. It could, of course, resolve differently because of imperfections in the crystal ball feature, as well as pilot error, but for now, I am long-term Read More 

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