DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Mid-Week Review: ST Indicators Top Too Soon - TLT Stalling at Resistance

by Erin Swenlin

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The short-term is still weak; our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators turned down this week after barely reaching positive territory. TLT rallied further but was unable to push past strong resistance at the March high. The DP Mid-Week Review presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Double Top Scenario Still Fits

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I asserted that the market was in the process of forming a major double top. This week, in spite of some price action attempting to refute that assertion, the double top is still evolving. So far the rally attempt appears to have failed, and the thin volume says that there is not as much conviction behind the rally as there ought to be. Specifically, I am referring to the SPX Volume panel below. Note that there was a high volume day on Monday's decline, but volume for the rest of the week was well below the one-year average of volume. Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: ST Indicators Rising Quickly, Not Necessarily Good - XLB ITTM Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Short-term signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards below certainly reflect the market's weakness this month. It would seem that we are bouncing at a critical juncture. The Materials SPDR (XLB) collected an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal, which you'll see on the DP Sector Scoreboard.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on Read More 

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Climactic Indicators Suggest Possible Buying Initiation

by Erin Swenlin

At present, it appears that the DecisionPoint climactic indicator chart could be suggesting a possible buying initiation. This is tricky. With volatility so high right now, often what appears to be an initiation isn't always the case. Climactic readings can persist, as we've seen with the $VIX. The first item to notice is the $VIX on the chart below. I have the scale inverted so that very high readings appear "oversold." The Bollinger Band around the $VIX has expanded greatly, which is not a surprise given the wild swings right now. Notice that, before today, the lower Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Double Top In Progress

by Carl Swenlin

A few weeks ago, when the market began challenging the 2018 price highs, I pointed out that there was a potential for a double top. Since then, a second top has clearly formed, and the potential for more downside must be considered. The double top confirmation line is drawn across the low between the two tops, about -20% below the recent highs. If the confirmation line is violated, the double top pattern will 'execute' and infer another leg down of equal or greater magnitude, but that is way too far in the future to think about now. The potential for a continued decline from current levels Read More 

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DP Bulletin: NDX and OEX New ST Trend Model Neutral Signals

by Erin Swenlin

Just a short note to alert readers to the two new Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signals on the NDX and OEX. These signals are triggered when the 5-EMA crosses below the 20-EMA while ABOVE the 50-EMA. If the crossover occurs BELOW the 50-EMA, then you have a STTM SELL signal. The rising trend on the NDX was broken along with support at the Aug/Oct tops. The next line of support would be at about 7300. The rising wedge has executed. The tops from Oct/Nov could provide strong support and an opportunity for price to bounce back somewhat. However, PMO and OBV are very Read More 

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DP Alert: SPX Neutral Signal - I Spy a Bullish Falling Wedge on Gold - XLE ITTM SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow Industrials generated a ST Trend Model Neutral signal yesterday. Now, the SPX joins in with its own STTM Neutral signal. XLE triggered a new IT Trend Model SELL signal, the first to appear on the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard in some time. Gold may be forming a bullish declining wedge. I can still make a case for a bearish head-and-shoulders, but price has been reluctant to execute it cleanly.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar Read More 

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DP Bulletin: New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal on the DOW - First to Fall

by Erin Swenlin

Just a quick bulletin to let you know the Dow Industrials lost the Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal, meaning it has now moved to "Neutral." The 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA, which is what triggered the signal change. Had the negative crossover occurred BELOW the 50-EMA, it would have been a SELL signal. However, it occurred above the 50-EMA, so we deem it a "Neutral" signal. Price has now tested the bottom of the bearish rising wedge successfully so far. Expectation is a breakdown and, measuring the back of the pattern, the downside target would be right around 24250. I don't Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Nasdaq Composite Record High Not Supported by Internals

by Carl Swenlin

This week the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a new, all-time high, but the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a long way from confirming that. The BPI is the percentage of Nasdaq Composite stocks that are on point and figure BUY signals, and Friday's reading is 55%. That is significantly lower than the two previous BPI tops in 2018 -- one was 70% and the other was 65%. The result is a strong negative divergence against the rising tops of the price index, and that says that the participation supporting the market advance is pretty thin. The Read More 

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DP Bulletin: OEX Triggers ST PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The OEX hopped on board the SELL signal train as its Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line, which triggered its own Short-Term PMO SELL Signal. A rising wedge was nearly executed today to the downside. The PMO was yanked below its signal line, which generated the SELL signal. Price closed above the rising bottoms trend line, but I would look for the wedge to proceed as expected to the downside. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint with Carl & Erin Swenlin LIVE on Fridays 4:30p EST Read More 

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